By Abdiqani Haji Abdi

Somalia, a nation that demands steady governance, now finds itself adrift amid impulse, contradiction, and personal vendetta. The recent collapse of the highly anticipated national consultative conference—set for 1 February 2026 at Mogadishu’s Xalane Compound—has laid bare a troubling pattern of erratic presidential conduct.

In a move that stunned the international community, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud ordered aircraft carrying the security staff of the Presidents of Puntland and Jubaland to turn back mid-flight, denying them permission to land in Mogadishu. These flights, essential for the meeting that partners had meticulously planned, were abruptly halted. “This was not a security assessment. It was a political impulse,” said one senior official involved in the preparations. “No risk analysis preceded it. No consultation followed it.”

A Shocking Departure from Precedent

This decision sent shockwaves through Somalia’s diplomatic circles. For decades, leaders of Federal Member States have traveled to Mogadishu with their security details as standard protocol. Even when President Hassan was in opposition in 2022, he moved with large armed contingents, often confronting government troops. “What has changed?” asked one regional official. “Nothing—except the man in Villa Somalia.”

The president’s pattern of contradiction—approving agreements one day and dismantling them the next—signals a presidency defined by volatility rather than leadership. Under intense international pressure, described as “unusually firm,” President Hassan reversed the order within hours, allowing the security teams entry. This swift U-turn only deepened concerns. “When a head of state issues and withdraws such serious orders within hours, it signals instability, not leadership,” remarked a diplomat.

Governing Through Disruption

This flight incident is just one piece of a larger puzzle. Even as the consultative forum agenda was being finalized, President Hassan introduced sweeping constitutional amendments covering five chapters to parliament. This was despite knowing that the crisis originated from four chapters he had previously amended without consultation, and an election commission he personally handpicked.

To constitutional experts, this governing style is rooted in provocation rather than consensus. “He repeatedly lights fires and then claims to be the firefighter,” said one legal analyst. “That is not strategy. It’s compulsion.”

Power, Property, and Unchecked Ambition

During his nearly four years in office, President Hassan has faced accusations of systematic public land seizures. More than 125 prime government plots, according to civil society monitors, have allegedly been transferred to private businessmen, leaving the state treasury empty. Many of these lands were home to internally displaced families, resulting in over 270,000 new displaced individuals created not by war, but by state action.

Sources also allege the emergence of privately controlled tax collection companies linked to the president’s family, levies on khat imported from Kenya, and compulsory fees from airport passengers. “No revenue stream is too small. No boundary is respected,” said a former finance official. “It reflects a mindset where the state is personal property.”

The Military Gamble

Last week, President Hassan promoted a 35-year-old officer to Brigadier General, appointing him Commander of the Somali National Army. This officer, previously in charge of military logistics, was implicated in corruption that left troops undersupplied. Analysts warn that this is less about reform and more about loyalty. “There is a growing fear that this is about control, not competence,” said a security source.

This fear is heightened by the army’s earlier disastrous deployment against Jubaland forces in Ras Kamboni, where federal troops were defeated and fled into Kenya.

International Alarm

The United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) confirmed that advance teams from Puntland and Jubaland could not arrive for the forum due to a lack of technical clearances. “This was because the necessary technical clearances were not granted,” UNTMIS said, urging Somali leaders to prioritize dialogue and consensus.

But beneath the diplomatic language lies growing alarm. “What Somalia is witnessing is not simply poor governance,” said one observer. “It is governance driven by impulse, grievance, and unchecked power.”

The Consequence

Perhaps most telling is President Hassan’s increasing absence from public engagement. Observers note he rarely addresses large crowds. “He knows what will happen,” said a Mogadishu analyst. “The chants would not be supportive. The slogans would not survive.”

History teaches that states rarely collapse suddenly; they erode gradually until institutions lose their meaning. Somalia, many fear, is nearing that threshold.

Without an immediate shift in conduct, Somalia approaches a governance risk threshold that international partners have long associated with targeted measures. Continued interference in political processes, obstruction of dialogue, and credible allegations of corruption and asset diversion collectively trigger early-warning indicators for accountability actions. Several partners are now considering measures that may include asset tracing, travel restrictions, and suspension of assistance. The prevailing view is that further tolerance of destabilizing behavior will undermine Somalia’s constitutional order and the credibility of international engagement.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com