The joint agreement by the Kenya and Somalia governments to repatriate about one million Somali refugees over the next three years appears to be based on two assumptions: one, that stability has returned to Somalia; and two, that the closing down of refugee camps will reduce threats posed by terrorist groups.

Both these assumptions are only partially accurate. While some parts of Somalia do experience relative stability, many parts, particularly some areas in central and southern Somalia, are still heavily controlled by Al Shabaab.

Moreover, it seems that the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is already showing signs of internal rivalries and corruption allegations, which are threatening to pull the country apart just one year after it was established.

President Hassan has recently had to deal with the resignation of Yussur A. F. Abrar, the first female Central Bank governor in Somalia who took over from Abdusalam Omer. The latter was implicated in a recent UN Monitoring Group report for diverting funds from the bank.

The inability of Hassan’s government to bring sanity and transparency into the public financial management system has far-reaching consequences, which will further impact on stability in states across the country, according to Abdirazak Fartaag, a former head of Public Financial Management in the former Transition Federal Government.

Questions are being raised about whether the recent commitment of 1.8 billion euro by the international community for the reconstruction of Somalia will be managed and used properly, considering that there is no functioning oversight body in place.

Moreover, it appears that the focus of reconstruction has mainly been on the capital, Mogadishu, which leaves other regions under-funded.

This is partly because the revenue raised by the government is negligible compared to the needs of the country, and also because there is no firm plan to distribute central government revenue to the federal states.

Critics of Hassan’s government believe that he has not tried hard enough to reach out to the regional governments and to assure them that national funds will be equitably distributed.

The acrimony between the central government and the regional governments was most recently demonstrated in Jubbaland where government ministers were turned away from Kismayu by local leaders.

The repatriation programme has to recognise that the refugees will be facing a situation where not only the central but even the regional administrations are not fully formed, and that the provision of basic services is non-existent in several areas, including Jubbaland.

Refugees leaving Dadaab to go to Jubbaland and other parts of Somalia will face numerous problems, including lack of healthcare and education, which they get in camps like Dadaab.

So, while there may appear to be a semblance of stability in Somalia, public service provision remains mainly in the hands of the private sector and NGOs, not the government.

In terms of national security, the country still faces a huge shortage of trained police officers and soldiers; Amisom remains the only viable force that can secure Al Shabaab-dominated areas.

The absence of state-led security and the fact that Amisom’s tenure in likely to end in coming years may discourage many refugees from returning home.

Huge disparities in salaries between the foreign and national forces operating both in Mogadishu and Jubbaland has also led to a lot of disaffection among the Somali soldiers and police, who have been rightfully complaining about irregular and insufficient stipends from the government.

This has led to a situation where trained Somali soldiers are being lured to defect to Al-Shabaab, which promises larger financial rewards and recognition.

This month, The Africa Report suggested that soldiers trained by the Kenya Defence Force may have also defected to Al-Shabaab.

If these issues are not resolved by both the central government and the federal states, it is likely that insecurity and instability will remain a feature of Somali life in years to come, making the prospect of repatriation difficult and protracted.

rasna.warah@gmail.com

Source: Daily Nation