Ethiopia’s current government is hoping gaining a new electoral mandate will give them the authority needed to pursue their reform agenda, which includes drafting a new constitution and potentially redrawing regional state borders.

This election represents the first true test for the ruling Prosperity Party (PP), led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, since it was formed in 2019 from the ashes of Ethiopia’s formerly dominant political coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). Originally scheduled for August 2020, the elections have been postponed twice – firstly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, then recently due to logistical challenges and rising insecurity.

Even though voting is now going ahead, it is set to be delayed still further across huge areas of the country, including Tigray, and several leading opposition parties are boycotting the polls – leading many observers to fear that poorly run elections will actively worsen Ethiopia’s divides rather than heal them.

Against a challenging backdrop

This will be the sixth election since Ethiopia embarked on multipartyism some 30 years ago, with previous polls marred by irregularities and claims of electoral fraud. The federal government draws its mandate from elections in 2015, won by the EPRDF with 100 per cent of parliamentary seats, and followed by huge public discontent and large-scale protests.

This resulted in Abiy Ahmed’s ascent to prime minister in 2018, heralding sweeping reforms, a pledge to build national unity and democracy, and the launch of the PP. His efforts to make peace with Eritrea and support domestic pluralism led to Abiy receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

However, the brutal war in Tigray and ongoing armed insurgency by Tigrayan forces have resulted in evidence of mounting atrocities, human rights violations, and an increasingly desperate humanitarian picture, with 1.7 million displaced, more than five million people in need of food aid, and the United Nations (UN) and others warning of an impending famine.

Ethiopia’s international partners, including the US and EU, have imposed travel restrictions and withheld financial support – and may yet enforce further sanctions should the government not take immediate actions to stop the Tigray conflict, facilitate unhindered humanitarian access, provide accountability for human rights violations, and begin a credible political dialogue process.

But the Ethiopian government strongly defends itself against interference in sovereign affairs, stressing its partners are best served working with them on these issues not against them. Ending Eritrea’s harmful involvement in the conflict is essential for all, and a solution that in-part addresses Asmara’s security concerns will be required to hasten the withdrawal of their forces.

Elections both partial and flawed

Elections will not take place in Tigray, and neither will they happen in numerous other constituencies where security is precarious, including Benishangul-Gumuz, Western Oromia and several other regions. Polls in the Somali and Harar regions are postponed until September due to irregularities and problems with the printing of ballot papers. In all, 102 out of 547 parliamentary seats – a substantial 18 per cent of the total – are not included in the first round of voting.

Read more: Imperfect elections do not fortify Ethiopia’s transition

Source: Chatham House