“About 98 percent of the currency circulating in the country is fake,” Thiam said in an interview Friday in Nairobi, the capital of neighboring Kenya. “The remaining 2 percent is currency printed during 1990-91, still circulating, but in very bad shape.”
Somalia’s descent into anarchy began with the ouster of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. A subsequent Islamist insurgency has hastened the destruction of its political and economic institutions, slashing annual per-capita income to $435 and making Somalia the world’s fifth-poorest country, according to the World Bank.
Printing of the new notes, which will initially be in small denominations, is aimed at restoring the Central Bank of Somalia’s powers to set monetary policy, Thiam said. While the institution doesn’t have the money to finance the plan, donors will back the reforms and financing will be agreed on once the government decides whether it wants a floating- or fixed-rate currency regime.
Debt Cancellation
While Somalia qualifies for debt cancellation, it would have to clear arrears that are part of $5.3 billion owed to international creditors such as the IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank to secure fresh funding, Thiam said. Writing off Somalia’s loans depends on progress toward curbing corruption, introducing a new currency and an effective monetary policy in the $6 billion economy.
“There are hurdles,” Thiam said. “But there is a general willingness from creditors to write off Somalia’s debt when the time comes, it’s a good prospect. They will not be asked to repay the debt tomorrow, so they have time to work on consolidating their economic base. The debt is an issue that will be resolved some time.”
Economic growth may slow to 2.5 percent in 2017 from 3.7 percent last year, the IMF estimates. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of national output in the country whose main export is camels to Gulf Arab countries.
Expansion will be supported by a “boom” in construction, telecommunications, investments in port development and new road infrastructure. Somalia’s “rich waters” also hold untapped potential for commercial fish production, he said.
The IMF is also assisting the central bank with regulation and supervision of the financial sector to open it to new investors, Thiam said. KCB Group Ltd. and Commercial Bank of Africa Ltd., neighboring Kenya’s biggest and sixth-largest banks by assets, are among lenders that have applied to set up shop. Somalia has six banks and 12 money-transfer businesses.
Better Governance
Somalis living abroad have buoyed the economy with remittances of as much as $2.3 billion a year, Thiam said. “We pretty much think the amount that could be going unnoticed, undeclared must be much bigger,” he said.
President Mohamed Abdullahi, elected into office this month, must make good on his word to fight graft, Thiam said. Somalia is the world’s most corrupt nation, according to Berlin-based Transparency International.
Somalia’s new president, popularly known as Farmajo, faces “formidable obstacles” tackling challenges posed by the al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabaab and corruption within the government, BMI Research said Monday in an e-mailed note. Al-Shabaab’s “influence could continue to revive” as an African Union-backed military force, which has struggled to get finance for its operations, starts withdrawing in 2018, BMI said.
Improving governance may enable the nation to exploit potentially “quite large” oil and gas reserves, Thiam said. The government has said production could begin as early as 2020 after exploration by companies such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc showed probable offshore hydrocarbon deposits. The state has held talks with those companies about reactivating dormant contracts.
Source: Bloomberg