By Dayib Sh. Ahmed

Introduction

The Somali federal government, under the leadership of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has reached a state of political paralysis, defined by recurring failures in pivotal sectors. Despite early promises of governance reform, security stabilization, and electoral transparency, Hassan Sheikh’s tenure has been marked by ineffective policies, unfulfilled objectives, and a significant erosion of public trust. One of the most glaring aspects of this leadership failure has been the President’s attempt to consolidate power through constitutional changes and electoral manipulation. These efforts have not only failed but have laid bare the federal government’s inability to steer the nation effectively.

President Hassan Sheikh’s approach has been less about genuine reform and more about centralizing authority, undermining the federal system that is critical to Somalia’s political stability. Remarkably, even before officially assuming office, in an interview with Voice of America (VOA) on May 18, 2022, President Hassan openly revealed his intention to repeal the provisional constitution. His vision was to impose a presidential, centralized unitary system, effectively dismantling Somalia’s federal framework. He made it clear that he viewed the role of the Prime Minister as redundant, a stance that starkly contradicts Somalia’s constitutional foundations and the need for balanced governance. This ambition to erode the federal structure, a key component of Somalia’s hard-earned progress, demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of the country’s political reality. Instead of strengthening Somalia’s federal institutions, Hassan Sheikh’s presidency has sought to centralize power, which has further fractured the nation’s fragile unity and undermined the rule of law.

1. Collapse of Constitutional Reform Efforts

One of President Hassan Sheikh’s most significant setbacks lies in the failure of his constitutional reform initiatives. This effort aimed to centralize power at the federal level, undermining the federal character of Somalia’s constitution. Hassan’s attempt to bypass legal provisions to amend the constitution was both unlawful and a breach of the federal spirit that was painstakingly enshrined to maintain regional autonomy. Constitutional change in Somalia require a delicate balance and the cooperation of all Federal Member States (FMS), necessitating both political consensus and legal due process.

President Hassan Sheikh, however, sought unilateral amendments without the necessary procedural safeguards, thereby attempting to overreach and manipulate the foundational legal framework of the country. Such attempts to subvert the legitimate process have not only collapsed but also exposed Hassan Sheikh’s failure to understand and respect the principles of federalism, which are fundamental to the unity of the Somali state. The FMS, particularly Puntland and Jubaland, rejected these unconstitutional overtures, standing firm against Hassan’s attempt to strip their autonomy. This firm stance reinforced the necessity of observing due process, respecting regional rights, and preventing centralized tyranny from resurfacing under the guise of reform. President Hassan Sheikh’s disregard for constitutional requirements demonstrated a gross misinterpretation of the balance of powers—an approach that ultimately rendered his efforts null and void. Today, it is clear that his attempt to force through constitutional changes has not only failed but also isolated him from other political stakeholders, resulting in a further erosion of his legitimacy.

2. Disintegration of Electoral Preparations

Another major failure of President Hassan Sheikh’s administration is the disintegration of preparations for the upcoming elections. These elections, intended to establish a credible government with public backing, were marred by systemic irregularities, overt manipulations, and a lack of legal compliance. Instead of ensuring an open and democratic electoral process, President Hassan embarked on a path aimed at extending his influence over regional states, attempting to impose hand-picked allies in key federal positions. The efforts to extend the regional mandates and cancel independent elections in the Federal Member States were not only politically questionable but also legally flawed. These moves violated the existing electoral laws and contravened Somalia’s constitution, which guarantees the rights of FMS to conduct their own elections as per their constitutions.

President Hassan’s intention to circumvent the principle of regional sovereignty in electoral matters was met with staunch resistance from regional leaders, especially Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland and Said Deni of Puntland. These leaders argued that Hassan’s maneuvering was tantamount to an unconstitutional encroachment on their autonomy. The legal doctrine of “subsidiarity,” which ensures that decisions are taken as closely as possible to the citizenry, was ignored by Hassan Sheikh in his attempt to extend the federal government’s control over electoral processes. His actions disregarded the established laws that safeguard the right of FMS to manage their own electoral affairs without interference. As a result, his vision for a sham electoral process that would have seen him consolidate control under a central authority has crumbled. This disintegration of the election preparations has left Hassan exposed as a leader devoid of the capability to organize and execute even the most fundamental of democratic exercises.

3. Failure in the War on Terror

Another critical area where Hassan Sheikh’s presidency has been exposed as ineffectual is the ongoing campaign war against terrorism. The government’s inability to contain and combat the growing threat of Al-Shabaab and other extremist groups represents not only a security failure but also a fundamental breach of governance, with deep legal and humanitarian consequences. Despite declaring a full-scale war on terrorism, Hassan’s administration has faltered in delivering any meaningful progress.

Al-Shabaab, rather than being diminished, has grown stronger, expanding its influence in central and southern regions of the country and posing an even greater threat to Somalia’s stability. This failure to secure the nation is a direct violation of the government’s core responsibility under both Somali law and international human rights law: the protection of its citizens. By law, the federal government is mandated to safeguard life and property, a fundamental aspect of the social contract between the state and its people. Yet, under Hassan Sheikh’s leadership, this obligation has been neglected. The state’s inability to provide adequate security and effectively neutralize the terrorist threat has placed Somali citizens in a perilous situation, violating their right to safety and security.

Moreover, Hassan’s strategy in combating terrorism has lacked coherence and coordination. Instead of building a unified, professional national army to take on these threats, the President dismantled much of the national military infrastructure. In its place, he has prioritized and relied heavily on tribal militias, such as the “Macawisley,” a militia group primarily composed of his own clan members. This shift away from a national defense force toward fragmented, clan-based militias has not only weakened the overall security apparatus but also heightened internal divisions and deepened the nation’s fragmentation along tribal lines. The reliance on Macawisley and similar groups is a short-term, flawed solution that undermines long-term national security efforts. Tribal militias, by their very nature, lack the discipline, training, and cohesion of a formal national army. They serve their own regional or clan interests, further fracturing the unity needed to combat a national threat like Al-Shabaab. President Hassan’s failure to prioritize the reformation and professionalization of the Somali National Army (SNA) has left the country vulnerable and ill-prepared to face organized insurgencies. It has also weakened Somalia’s position when seeking regional and international military cooperation, as allies prefer working with legitimate national institutions rather than fragmented tribal forces.

Financial transparency in military operations has also been a glaring issue under Hassan Sheikh’s administration. There have been persistent reports of misappropriated funds meant for military expenditures, with a significant portion being funneled into personal and clan-based interests. The lack of oversight and accountability has left frontline troops under-equipped, underpaid, and demoralized, further weakening Somalia’s defense against terrorism. At the same time, the absence of necessary support for regional states, many of which bear the brunt of Al-Shabaab’s attacks, has left them vulnerable, increasing their reliance on clan militias and further undermining national unity. This systematic failure is not only a matter of political incompetence but also a breach of legal duty.

The federal government has a duty of care under international human rights law and Somalia’s own constitution to protect its people from internal and external threats. This includes the duty to adequately fund and equip security forces, to respect the rule of law in military operations, and to ensure transparency in the use of public funds for national defense. Hassan’s administration has blatantly neglected these responsibilities, exposing the Somali people to heightened risks and insecurity. The President’s rhetoric of reform and progress in the fight against terrorism has so far been nothing more than hollow promises. The lack of substantial outcomes, the continued expansion of Al-Shabaab’s influence, and the reliance on divisive tribal militias over a unified national force have severely undermined any claims of success. Hassan’s presidency has not brought Somalia closer to peace or stability but has instead created a more fragmented, vulnerable, and weakened nation.

Ahmed Madobe’s Strategic Leadership

While Hassan Sheikh has been ineffective in all these arenas, President Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland has emerged as a leader of strategy and principle. Madobe’s rejection of the unconstitutional term extension pushed by Hassan Sheikh signifies his commitment to upholding the autonomy of his state and ensuring adherence to the constitution.

Unlike President Hassan, who has sought to manipulate the system for personal gain, Madobe’s position has been consistent in defending the rule of law and the federal structure of governance. Hassan Sheikh’s inability to consolidate power is largely due to the strategic political boxing by Ahmed Madobe, who has refused to concede ground on issues fundamental to the autonomy and sovereignty of Jubaland. The diplomatic finesse shown by Madobe, along with the vocal support of Puntland, has boxed Hassan into a corner, leaving him politically exposed and stripped of influence.

The Consequences of Self-Interested Leadership

President Hassan Sheikh’s leadership, tainted by nepotism, self-interest, and unethical behavior, has become synonymous with failure. His term has been marked by the widespread looting of national resources by his family and close associates, a hallmark of his morally bankrupt administration. When leadership is driven by self-interest rather than the national interest, failure becomes inevitable. Hassan’s pursuit of power at all costs, using divisive clan politics as a tool, has only deepened the rift in Somali society, paving the way for political disgrace and historical condemnation.

A leader’s role is to serve as a unifying figure, building confidence among the populace and working toward the common good. However, President Hassan Sheikh’s blatant disregard for the constitution, coupled with his ineffectual governance, has dismantled the foundations of trust required for effective governance. His use of clannism as a political tool has been particularly detrimental, further dividing a nation already fractured by decades of conflict. The end result is a president who stands discredited—a lame-duck leader who has wasted his mandate and whose only legacy is one of missed opportunities and national disappointment.

Conclusion

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership has been marked by significant failures across crucial sectors. His collapse in constitutional reform, disintegration of electoral processes, and inability to manage national security. especially the fight against terrorism have left his administration exposed. His attempts to impose a centralized, unitary system disregarded Somalia’s federal structure, undermining the rights of Federal Member States and violating constitutional principles.

President Hassan Sheikh’s manipulation of electoral timelines, dismantling of the national army in favor of clan militias, and failure to protect citizens from terrorism show a pattern of governance that prioritizes self-interest over national unity. In stark contrast, President Ahmed Madobe’s commitment to upholding federalism demonstrates the kind of leadership Somalia needs. Somalia cannot afford another morally bankrupt leader who subverts democracy and disregards the law. The era of Hassan Sheikh should serve as a lesson in the dangers of unchecked power and self-serving governance. Somalia’s path forward must prioritize accountability, federalism, and leadership that genuinely serves the people.

Dayib Sh. Ahmed
Email: Dayib0658@gmail.com

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