By Ali Haji Warsame, Former Puntland Minister of Education

The Somali government, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, issued a two-page letter dated June 10, 2024, about the reassessment of the C6+ framework’s relevance in Somalia’s current context. The letter emphasized that, while the C6+ was established to support Somalia’s peacebuilding, stabilization, and institutional development over the past decade, Somalia is no longer a country in transition. It is now a sovereign state with functioning constitutional institutions, a maturing democratic process, and a clear national vision for peace and development. Although this is what every Somali aspires to, there is one significant flaw: the reality on the ground.

The C6+ group has traditionally been a coalition of international partners, which includes the United Nations, European Union, United States, United Kingdom, African Union, IGAD, and key bilateral donors. This coalition has played a vital role in supporting Somalia’s governance, security, and financial stability. However, the Somali government has recently called for the dissolution of C6+, arguing that the framework is outdated and no longer aligns with the country’s sovereignty and institutional maturity. The government contends that Somalia is no longer in transition and prefers bilateral partnerships instead of externally coordinated mechanisms. This letter has sparked a new discussion among stakeholders. While many of us emphasize with the government’s pursuit of self-respect, national pride, and a stance against constant external meddling and interference in the country’s internal affairs, it is important to acknowledge that the government appears to have messed up and has not carefully considered its position to put its affairs in order.

The political elite in the country is sharply divided, and at both the national and regional levels, there is a lack of a unified stand. The political fragmentation and disputes are at their highest since 2022. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has been asserting itself as the sole authority in the country, claiming all powers without recognizing that Somalia is a federal state. Major decisions with significant political implications should ideally be discussed and agreed upon at a national level. It’s unfortunate that while this stance might have been more widely accepted at the beginning of the government’s term, the FGS has since alienated many influential states, such as Puntland, and has severed ties with Jubbaland.

For this reason, the issues outlined in the letter should have been addressed only after the country has coherently united at all levels to enhance its security and political cooperation. This includes putting jointly an end to extremism, agreeing framework for ending the mandate of African peacekeeping forces, establishing an all-inclusive Somali National Army, adequately compensating its soldiers, addressing poverty, and tackling rampant corruption. Without addressing these critical issues, calls for sovereignty are a futile exercise. Indeed, much needs to be done before turning against any kind of intervention, let alone opposing those who helped Somalia when the government needed it the most. This case could have been handled in a much better way than simply sending a letter and ignoring its consequences.

This shift occurs amid broader political tensions, which include concerns over constitutional changes, electoral reforms, and security challenges, particularly with the resurgence of Al-Shabaab. The proposal to downgrade or dismantle the C6+ group would not have sparked a debate among international stakeholders if the country were heading harmoniously towards its future direction and stability.

Politics of change management

The public is profoundly disappointed with the performance of the current government, including those who supported the president’s bid in 2022. Although politics can be chaotic, and in Somalia, it is particularly dire, the high hopes were dashed by the government’s constant disregard for the promises it made to the people. After a bitter contest in the last elections, many believed the call for “Somalis at peace with itself and with the rest of the world”.

Every four years, Somalia faces severe upheaval, teetering on the brink of disaster. Now and then. the incumbent always tailors the electoral process to suit his own interests and begins his re-election campaign on his very first day in office. I have been actively involved in local politics at both the national and state levels, and I believe that politics should be about creating possibilities for positive change and improving the condition of the office before leaving it.

The previous government encountered significant challenges, and a noticeable sense of change was in the air. However, after the new government came to power, there was no clear strategy to address and tackle the contentious issues at hand. Instead, the political elite seemed primarily focused on ousting the incumbent, a situation commonly referred to in Somali political terminology as “all against one” or “Wa- Shamsi”.

Having met several presidential hopefuls recently, I found that none of them could clearly articulate what needs to be done and how it would be accomplished. There are pressing questions about the assurances they can offer to their supporters and to the public to prevent the issues they are currently complaining about from resurfacing. Additionally, we sought to let them address the mechanisms that will be in place for accountability, transparency, and adherence to the rule of law.  The only consensus among the potential candidates was the desire to change leadership at Villa Somalia, but nothing was agreed beyond that point.

Going back to the last election in 2022, evaluating the candidates based on specific criteria, I assessed that the most potential candidate to win was Hassan Sh. Mohamoud, despite my previous reservations in 2017. His campaign trail demonstrated a strong team, an aggressive strategy, and notable experience in government. Many, including myself, believed that if given another chance, he could learn from his past mistakes and potentially leave a positive legacy.

The politics of “winner takes all”

It was a memorable night at the Sahal Terminal, as President Hassan Sh. Mohamoud officially launched his campaign for candidacy for the federal elections scheduled for May 2022. As the leader of Badbaado Qaran, he was determined to fight for his political comeback and was ready to do whatever it took to show the incumbent the exit door. However, he realized that he could not achieve this alone. A significant factor in the political landscape was President Deni of Puntland State of Somalia, which had served as a safe haven for the opposition throughout 2022 and played hardball against President Farmaajo.

In Somalia’s political landscape, no president has ever been elected to serve two consecutive terms. This time, it appeared that President Farmaajo was likely to lose the presidency, but the identity of his successor remained unclear and a bit ambiguous. The contenders were closely matched, and each was anticipating a tough battle against the incumbent.

The opposition, particularly Badbaado Qaran, secretly agreed to unite their efforts to elect one of their own, no matter what. This was the only substantial political agreement they reached after months of negotiations. However, they could not reach a consensus on how the country will be governed after Farmaajo. To the outside political spectators, Hassan Sh. Mohamoud was seen as the most organized opposition leader, possessing a power base, but he lacked credibility, and his failures during his first term overshadowed his strengths.

On the eve of the election, I participated in a panel discussion on Al-Jazeera News Channel regarding the upcoming vote and potential outcomes. I emphasized that Somalia needs a capable and experienced leader someone who can govern with clarity and purpose from day one. Given the country’s fragile state and the magnitude of its political, economic, social, and security challenges, entrusting its future to amateurs’ hands is a risk it simply cannot afford.

Looking back, it is clear that the country was lagging behind in almost every area, and many factors prevented it from exerting power throughout the country. Anyone who stepped into Villa Somalia, in the past and present, focused on their re-election bid from day one in office, rather than addressing the challenges facing the country, including the challenges that this letter highlights. The international community is growing weary of continuously investing in Somalia without noticeable improvements in governance and responsibility for its security. President Hassan Sh. Mohamoud capitalized on these circumstances to position himself as the saviour, drawing upon his previous experience. He pledged to learn from his past mistakes and to do better this time.

I believed in giving him a second chance, and I wasn’t the only one. I stood confidently at his campaign launches, passionately expressing my support for his bid, citing my reasons. In 2017, I had been one of the candidates who critically opposed him, but this time, I felt that President Mohamoud could pull the country together and unite it, if he opts to do so and work towards rebuilding the nation we all want to be proud of. I genuinely provided him with the support he needed at that time, with a firm promise from him to sever ties with his past and build a self-sufficient nation.

It is with great concern that I express my disappointment regarding the government’s handling of critical and contentious issues after more than three years in power. The country is struggling with governance disputes, security challenges, and constitutional disagreements. To move forward, it is essential to revitalize political dialogue by enhancing inclusive negotiation mechanisms between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Federal Member States (FMSs). This approach is necessary to resolve conflicts over power-sharing, security, and electoral processes. Additionally, it is crucial to clarify the federalism structures by adhering to the federal model of governance, addressing disputes related to resource allocation, security responsibilities, and the finalization of the constitution. Without these steps, it will be extremely difficult for the country to resist interference from international players, whether they are allies or adversaries.  

The final thought

The government should prioritize strengthening institutional trust by establishing transparent accountability mechanisms and ensuring adherence to the constitution. This approach will encourage cooperation among stakeholders and enhance security sector reforms.

Additionally, it is crucial for the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to collaborate with the Federal Member States (FMS) in developing an all-inclusive Somali National Army (SNA). This should involve creating clear command structures and joint operational frameworks between federal and regional authorities to combat threats like Al-Shabaab. Furthermore, it is essential to ensure inclusiveness in the constitutional review process. For instance, Puntland has proposed bilateral negotiations to finalize constitutional provisions and harmonize governance structures. The Federal Government of Somalia needs to take a step back and re-evaluate its approach before tackling bilateral issues with international partners. By doing so, it can secure the support of all Somali people, regardless of their status, location, and political stand and present a united front.

Likewise, my sincere advice to President Hassan Sh. Mohamoud is to prioritize local council elections. This will allow the public to participate in the decision-making at the lower level, fostering democracy and multi-partyism at the grassroots. Conducting local elections will serve as a valuable lesson for future national elections. Currently, combining local and federal elections is counterproductive and impractical. Puntland has taken the right approach by focusing on local elections separately, and it is now experiencing the benefits of increased public engagement, cultural change and gradual transition to democracy in the country. Without broader citizen participation in the electoral process, it will be challenging to respect the election outcomes and to avoid political backlash, especially given the current fragility and weakness of the country’s institutions.

Ali Haji Warsame, MA, MBA, CPA
Executive Director – Hiil Institute
Former Puntland Minister of Education
Email: ali.warsame@hiilinstitute.org

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