By Abdullahi A. Nor
Somalia, a country long considered a fragile but hopeful experiment in post-conflict recovery, now stands dangerously close to full-scale state collapse under the increasingly authoritarian rule of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. What many observers describe as the most severe political crisis since the 1991 fall of Siad Barre is rapidly pushing the country toward insecurity, political fragmentation, and a looming civil war—forcing the international community to confront the possibility of removing Hassan Sheikh from office altogether.
This week, in a move that has alarmed Somalia’s international partners, Hassan Sheikh’s government formally downgraded the role of the C6+ group — the international coalition that has for nearly 30 years been Somalia’s primary lifeline.
The C6+ — comprising the United Nations, European Union, United States, United Kingdom, African Union, IGAD, and key bilateral donors — has not only kept Somalia’s weak institutions afloat but has also funded over 23,000 African Union peacekeeping troops tasked with containing Al-Shabaab. The group finances government salaries, funds humanitarian operations, and subsidizes virtually the entire federal budget. Without this support, Somalia’s federal government—whose authority extends to only a few districts within Mogadishu—would not last weeks on its own.
Yet, Hassan Sheikh’s move to sever this critical international support is widely seen as a calculated attempt to strip away oversight and grant himself unchecked power to dismantle Somalia’s fragile constitutional order.
A Personal Constitutional Coup
At the core of Hassan Sheikh’s strategy is a carefully engineered constitutional power grab. Over the past year, he has unilaterally drafted a new constitution without consultation, imposed a new electoral law, handpicked his own election commission, and created a political framework designed to guarantee his re-election in 2026.
Federal Member States that resist his unconstitutional maneuvers — particularly Puntland and Jubaland — face political subversion, military intimidation, and clandestine destabilization. Reports indicate that Hassan Sheikh has even prepared Somali National Army units for possible military operations against defiant regions, while financing hired militias to create unrest.
“He is not only violating Somalia’s Provisional Federal Constitution; he is destroying it,” said one legal analyst in Mogadishu. “Without federalism, Somalia will fragment entirely.”
A Worsening Security Disaster
What makes the political crisis even more dangerous is its overlap with a deteriorating security landscape. Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-linked terror group, has regained significant territory after years of steady territorial losses. The group now threatens Mogadishu itself.
Security experts estimate that more than 50,000 Somali National Army soldiers — painstakingly trained and equipped under the leadership of Hassan Sheikh’s predecessor, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo — were thrown into poorly coordinated offensives without leadership or planning. Thousands have died, others deserted, and Al-Shabaab is once again at the capital’s doorstep.
“This government sacrificed our national army for short-term political objectives,” a retired army officer stated. “Now Al-Shabaab is poised to retake control while the president fights his own citizens.”
If Somalia falls, Al-Shabaab will control strategic access points to both the Red Sea and Indian Ocean — maritime arteries vital to global trade. The destabilization of these international shipping routes would pose a catastrophic threat far beyond the Horn of Africa, exposing the weakness of global counterterrorism efforts and jeopardizing international commerce.
Unprecedented Corruption
As Somalia’s political and security situation deteriorates, the scale of personal enrichment by Hassan Sheikh and his inner circle has stunned both domestic and foreign observers.
Multiple financial intelligence sources confirm that the president — once of modest means — is now among Somalia’s wealthiest men, with alleged personal holdings approaching $900 million in offshore accounts. Critics say these funds are siphoned off through illicit land sales, stolen donor aid, embezzlement, and backroom deals that entirely bypass Somalia’s national treasury.
“This is daylight robbery on a level Somalia has never seen,” said a Mogadishu civil society activist. “That money could fund our soldiers, rebuild hospitals, and feed the 600,000 internally displaced people wandering our streets. Instead, it enriches the president and his associates while ordinary Somalis starve.”
Nepotism, clan favoritism, and outright theft have become institutionalized under Hassan Sheikh’s leadership. Key government positions, lucrative contracts, and major business ventures are routinely handed to family members, loyal clansmen, and businessmen aligned with Villa Somalia.
“This is no longer governance,” said one Western diplomat speaking anonymously. “This is systemic looting — right in front of the international donors who have propped up Somalia for nearly three decades.”
Downgrading the C6+: Cutting the Oxygen Supply
Perhaps the most alarming move in Hassan Sheikh’s consolidation of power has been his decision to downgrade the C6+ — the very body that has sustained Somalia’s federal experiment since the early 1990s.
Originally created to shepherd Somalia through transitional governments, constitutional reforms, elections, and institution-building, the C6+ has functioned as Somalia’s de facto external stabilizer. Stripping it of relevance removes the only remaining international guardrail keeping Somalia from spiraling back into clan warfare and total collapse.
The president’s decision has not only stunned the international community but also triggered alarm that Somalia’s collapse would threaten regional and global security interests. Al-Shabaab’s ascension would give extremist forces operational control over international maritime routes linking the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean — arteries essential for global oil shipments, commercial goods, and military logistics.
“The stakes couldn’t be higher,” warned one maritime security expert. “If Somalia unravels completely, Al-Shabaab could exploit the chaos to disrupt global trade routes the world depends on.”
International Options Narrowing
Somalia remains under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, granting the international community legal authority to intervene diplomatically, financially, and militarily to prevent state collapse. This previously hypothetical scenario is now being seriously discussed in major world capitals.
“The time for quiet diplomacy may have passed,” a senior Western envoy involved in Somalia negotiations admitted. “The world must urgently consider freezing Hassan Sheikh’s financial assets, dismantling his offshore networks, and referring him to the International Criminal Court. There may be no other path left to save Somalia.”
A Looming Catastrophe
Somalia’s opposition, civil society, and federal states are increasingly voicing fears that the country is hurtling toward full state failure. “If Hassan Sheikh continues this course, Somalia will disintegrate,” warns a Puntland elder. “He is not building a state — he is looting and dismantling it for personal power.”
Many now draw parallels to Siad Barre’s dictatorship, where corruption, clan-based patronage, and authoritarian rule eventually imploded into decades of state collapse. Yet this time, with Al-Shabaab stronger than ever and regional instability growing, the potential consequences are even graver.
As Somalia teeters on the brink, one truth grows clearer: the world must act decisively and soon, or risk losing Somalia — with devastating consequences for global security.
Abdullahi A. Nor
Email: abdulahinor231@gmail.com