By Abdiqani Ahmed Farah (Dala’aan) PhD
Given that one couldn’t go out and arbitrarily amass a sample out of franchised individuals in relation to who they intend to vote for, its quite trying to predict the outcome of this week’s presidential election. But one could gauge the wind of the share of each presidential hopeful garner out of the sixty-six up for grabs votes. Engaging banters gathering in the coffee shops, everybody reserves one’s conjecture for the posterity pending the water is cleared. Cleared in the sense of until the genuine contenders make their bid and submit the twenty-thousand-dollar tag concomitant to be eligible for the race. But then again, in an oddly over the years developed experiences, by and large the portion of the vote each parliamentary chair contender mustered in the pool of representative sample reflects the share of the votes in contention presidential front runners can expect.
Another aspect of this sixth round (including fallen through one of Jama Ali Jama) of presidential election since Puntland inception remains, in history chronicles, that the incumbent always is in a vantage point and has the edge over others. The current president got in there by a whisker, and the debate of repeating the same scenario has been and still is in full swing at the hotels of Garowe. On the other hand, after electing Abdihakim Mohamed Ahmed (Dhobo daarood) as the chair of the house of representatives, the permutation for the president in office to follow in the footsteps of his predecessors is doubtful and almost consigned him into the penumbra. Thus, for that prediction to materialise or otherwise, since there are numerous bizarre instances it can go wrong, remains to be seen.
For the other contenders, the messages emanating of the respective candidates, especially firmly in contention vying ones, courts broaches that there are quite a half of dozen that are jostling for position as front runners. For example, the names frequently came back again and again include Said Deni, Mohamud Khalif (Jebiye), Ali Issa, Khalif Issa, Farah Ali Shire, Abdi Farah (Juxa) and Hassan Osman (Diana). Its only a mater of two days to live through the victor for the top job out of the above list if the majority of disenfranchised populace prediction is right.
Furthermore, if anything, the incumbent hardly features in the names emanating from the discourse mills. In that respect, Prejudice could easily creep in through the approach individuals are being picked for a skim through survey. Since the government machines are lopsidedly at his disposal, one always conscientiously remains careful in dismissing the sitting president.
The other thing that makes this sort of election forecasting very sophisticated business isn’t on either the national share of the ballot or upon who wins the majority of votes in each constituency, but on the number of seats accessible in the house of representatives combined with what historic election results, going back to 1998, presages. In that respect, let’s do some deliberations by first laying open to the accepted modus Vivendi since the Puntland State’s inception that Majerteen, tacitly Mohamud saleeban, are equated upon the office of the president, Dhulbahante Harti for the Vice president and Warsangeli harti meant for the Chair of the house of the representatives of which they already garnered in major colours. With the passage of time, only twice had been disturbed the arrangement in which Dhulbahante and Warsangeli harti, in a fallen through shots, sought for the presidency. What one meant in here is for Dr Ali Issa to have a go for the ticket of the presidency and frustrate the accepted deal carries with that atavistic fear for Dhulbahante Harti adventurously vacate the Vice-presidential locus, even though the presidential election comes prior to the vice president and Salwe and Eenow could easily step into the vice presidential ticket, and Tanade (Leelkase)Darood skulking in the peripheries step into their shoes. notwithstanding, he is one of the names crops up when asked the banters “who will be the next president”, but for him to frustrate the putative deal remains to be seen.
Looking from different prospective, when the debate go over drive and transcend to another layer for the participants of any discourse regarding who wins the election, within the M saleeban rotational understanding, this time round its for Osman Mohamud (OM), and in that respect Said Deni, Jebiye and Khalif Mudan names respectively and ubiquitously comes back in full force among the long-list vying from them. Nonetheless, in the same discourse, this terms’ uniqueness is other M Saleeban candidates such as Abdi Farah (Juxa) and Ali haji Warsame are jostling for position and hellbent to dislodge OM and step into their spot. Fielding some questions regarding the possibility of displacing OM by Abdi Farah (Juxa) and Ali haji Warsame, its conceivably a remote expectation.
In conclusion, almost two-third of the representatives are unsullied and young folks who’s voting propensities is problematic to predict and only laid out in the above analysis gives you a way of bestowing subjective judgment. But one ought to hold one’s horses before jumping into conclusion and indorse the above analysis, as the cash factor always pops in unassumed contender into the best seat of the theatre. As a matter of live through, almost throughout the last couple months the campaign trail has been in full swing and contenders superseded one another according to who digs one’s pocket deeper and if it materialises in the election hall or otherwise remains to be seen. I rest my case
Abdiqani Ahmed Farah (Dala’aan) PhD
Email: [email protected]
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Mr. Farah (Dala’aan) did his PhD at the University of Glasgow. His work focuses on, inter alia, higher education management-cum-quality assurance, curriculum development and environmental issues.
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