By Mohamed Fatah
Six months before Somalia’s parliamentary and the presidential vote, the entire electoral process has stalled, and in serious doubt, posing a significant threat to the political stability and security of the nation. The failure to hold the 2020/2021 election will lead to swift deterioration of the situation and move Somalia dangerously closer to the brink. The crisis poses a great threat to Somalia now than Al-Shabaab and risks fracturing the political process and government the international community had spent tens of billions to build and funded the Somali Security Forces and the African Union Mission sacrificed to defend it.
Time is running out for Somali political leaders and the international community partners to find solutions or Somalia will probably become fractured again and the federal government and the parliament will lose legitimacy.
Halima Ismail (Halima Yarey), the chairperson of the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC), who had more than three years to prepare the nation for the 2020/2021 elections ruled out holding the scheduled elections, and informed lawmakers that the earliest election could be held is March or after August 2021. What is concerning to all is how non-committal she was to hold an election, proposing two flawed models based on biometric and manual registrations that designed to delay and deny the Somali people the opportunity to fully participate in the political process, and hold the federal government accountable.
The chairperson declared that it was impossible to hold in Somalia this year, because of coronavirus pandemic, insecurity, and financial challenges. Halima Yarey’s reasoning is flawed and lacks credibility. She is no longer independent, but may have become part of the three C’s of corrupted, coerced, and co-opted that define the administration. She waited for three years while privately meeting with Villa Somalia and government allies in the parliament to construct a process to delay the election, knowing Villa Somalia and its allies will probably lose if the election is held with no delay- 2020 for parliament and or early 2021 for the presidential election. The chairperson has lost credibility, and should not be trusted by the opposition political leaders and the Federal Member States (FMSs) to be fair, therefore, we add our voice to calls to replace her.
The existing relationship between Villa Somalia and the NIEC chairperson is troubling and potentially introduce fraud in favor of government allies and candidates in the parliament that will deny fair elections to ensure elected officials are accountable to voters. Ms. Yarey’s proposal will usher uncertainty, and undermine the process at this critical time in the nascent democracy. It’s clear that Villa Somalia and allies in the parliament can’t win a corruption-free and fair election and they have concluded delaying election, using unworkable and illogical models and proposals is the best way to extend their term.
Halima Yarey has dealt a blow to prospects for a stable, democratic future for Somalia. Repeated calls by members of parliament, Federal Members States, and opposition for the resignation of the chairperson suggest the damage to the long-term independence and credibility of the electoral commission may be irreparable. The proposed election process is a slap in the face for democracy. Serious doubts remain about the logic of holding a one-person-one-vote election that could lead to millions of citizens in disenfranchised.
The international community partners had hoped that after years of frustration with the new FGS leadership, a new election in Somalia would finally produce unifying leaders capable of stabilizing the country while working with the international community to combat security, governance, and development issues. Yet six months before the elections to choose Somalia’s next parliament and president, Somalis, and international partners are now concerned about the current political fracture that threatens the fragile government and nation.
The U.S. State Department has recently concluded that the Somali government remains incapable of ousting Al-Shabaab from its strongholds, enabling the insurgents to continue to control large parts of the country. As another indication of the Somali government failure to defeat Al-Shabaab with the group carrying out more than 1,000 attacks in Somalia and Kenya, according to State Department Country Reports.
To avoid repeating the 1990s failure and justify more investment, the IC must pressure the federal government to hold elections as scheduled. Failure to hold elections and deny the people to participate in the process will be another failure and defining moment and will have far-reaching consequences for the nation. The international community abandoned Somalia in the 1990s and their risk-averse approach to pushing Somali leaders to resolve the political crisis will lead to chaos and resurgence of violent extremist groups in Somalia.
The issue of Banadir at this time is nothing but a distraction and diversion from important electrical issues and to hide federal government failure to address important constitutional and security issues. Villa Somalia and allies in the parliament are using the Banadir issue to create a wedge in the capital. They are aware that the Upper House (Senate) will likely not grant representation and voting rights in the current climate and without first completing the interim constitutions. To change Banadir status requires a political agreement between all stakeholders and will involve decisions on the status and future location of the nation’s capital. In a federal Somalia, the national capital cannot be a Federal Member State. That will defeat the purpose of federalism and invalidate the 4.5 power sharing, leading to political and economic marginalization of 90% of Somalis currently in Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Jubaland, Puntland, and Southwest as well as Sanaag, Sool, and Somaliland.
Despite the problems outlined above, there will be a convergent of interests among political leaders, the Somali people, and the international community, and desire to avoid political and state collapse. The chaos of the three years could provide the opportunity for reform, and increase participation of the politically disenfranchised by establishing a new election model that will allow the country’s many stakeholders and factions to compete in the election. Serious constitutional, structural, political and technical difficulties remain as obstacles to Somalia’s parliament and the presidential election, and formation of a more stable, secure, democratic, federal, accountable, and representative Somalia, and we assess that the formation of a unity government is urgently needed to complete the interim constitution and deliver on a credible political outcome for the Somali people.
Way ahead
The greatest threat to the future of Somalia is that this chaotic time are political leaders who are creating wedges and dividing the people, many voters may lose their representation:
- The deadlock can only be broken if Farmaajo agrees to a power-sharing deal as part of a government of national unity. This is preferable to the alternative of continued uncertainty and a lack of functioning government. However, Farmaajo’s insistence to holding one-person one-vote election and the NIEC’s failure to layout credible election process and the ad hoc nature highlights the flaws in the process.
- Re-establish the National Security Council (NSC) or a similar structure consisting of the President of Somalia, and the presidents of the Federal Member States (FMSs) to agree and settle important constitutional and legal issues. The FGS failure to hold NSC meetings is one of the contributing factors in the current political crisis and climate of mistrust between the FGS and FMS. Somali leaders and stakeholders must meet to sort out important and consequential issues and peacefully resolve any outstanding issues before the next election.
- Re-establish the Technical Committee (TC) to advise senior policymakers on important issues including the election models, and post-election transition. The TC is critical to bridging gaps and resolves wedges and issues, building consensus to move the nation’s agenda.
- Establish a new Constitution Council consisting of representatives of the federal and state parliaments, other stakeholders and civil society organizations to complete the interim constitution before the election.
- A new Independent Election Commission chairperson free of internal and external influence and manipulation that will work on an election model that will lead to the democratic transition of power through elections; Strengthen the NIEC and grant them time and space to run elections.
- Make continued funding for the federal government and member states contingent on the democratic transfer of power, and government commitment to transparent management of elections.
- Support strengthening federalism and the Federal Member States and focus on long-term security and stability that credible, accountable, democratic and the federal government would create in Somalia.
- Increase engagement with the federal parliament, state parliament, other stakeholders, and civil society organizations to assist in managing issues, reducing tensions and resolving disputes between Somali political leaders. The UN needs to be more proactive and play a greater role as an impartial mediator.
Mohamed A. Fatah
Email: [email protected]
—————
Mr. Mohamed A. Fatah is a Somali-American executive with over 15+ years’ experience in foreign policy, national security, and regulatory compliance. Mr. Fatah advised current and former Somali federal governments on foreign policy, national security, diplomacy, and engagement with the international community. Prior to that, Mr. Fatah had a distinguished career in the U.S. Government where he served as Senior Advisor and Policy Coordinator to the White House / National Security Council. Mr. Fatah routinely analyzed global issues of concern, resulting in clear, concise, analysis and briefings for the President of the United States, Senior Policymakers at the White House/ National Security Council, and Congress. Mr. Fatah brings to any discussion an unparalleled depth of expertise, advising the US government, the Pentagon and Congress on political, security, development matters in Somalia and the Horn of Africa region.
We welcome the submission of all articles for possible publication on WardheerNews.com. WardheerNews will only consider articles sent exclusively. Please email your article today . Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of WardheerNews.
WardheerNew’s tolerance platform is engaging with diversity of opinion, political ideology and self-expression. Tolerance is a necessary ingredient for creativity and civility.Tolerance fuels tenacity and audacity.
WardheerNews waxay tixgelin gaara siinaysaa maqaaladaha sida gaarka ah loogu soo diro ee aan lagu daabicin goobo kale. Maqaalkani wuxuu ka turjumayaa aragtida Qoraaga loomana fasiran karo tan WardheerNews.
Copyright © 2024 WardheerNews, All rights reserved
