Egypt has rejected presence by non-littoral states on the Red Sea coast, raising speculation about what it might be up to next, especially with diligent attempts by landlocked Ethiopia to be commercially and militarily present on the same coast.
At a press briefing with his Ethiopian and Eritrean counterparts in Cairo, Egyptian Foreign Minister, Badr Abdelatty, said Red Sea security is the preserve of littoral states only.
“We will not accept any [foreign] military presence [on the Red Sea coast],” the Egyptian minister said on 11 January.
The minister’s remarks were Egypt’s latest confirmation of rejection of Ethiopian attempts to gain access to the Red Sea through Berbera Port in Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland, around 1,553 nautical miles away from the Suez Canal in Egypt.
Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in what amounted to a conflict of wills since January of last year, when the Horn of Africa state signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of Somaliland for using Berbera Port for commercial purposes and the establishment of a naval base.
The deal infuriated Mogadishu because it entailed Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland’s independence, which the Somali authorities consider a violation of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
It also angered Egypt which has grown suspicious of Ethiopian intentions, ever since the latter embarked on the construction of a gigantic hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River, Egypt’s main source of fresh water.
The dam, which has already become operational, has started depriving water-poor Egypt of a sizeable amount of its annual share from the river.
Unwavering
Egypt’s latest rejection of Ethiopian presence on the Red Sea comes at a time of high diplomacy in the region, with Turkey stepping into the row over this presence.
Almost a month ago, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, hosted the leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia for their first meeting since their two nations locked horns over the aforementioned memorandum of understanding.
Somalia’s president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, signed an agreement, called the “Ankara Declaration” that commits them to resolving their differences in a cooperative manner.
The declaration also makes it necessary for Somalia and Ethiopia to respect each other’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
Somalia and Ethiopia are expected to start before the end of next month technical negotiations on a deal that gives Ethiopia a reliable, secure and sustainable access to and from the Red Sea and sign it within the following four months, in the light of the declaration.
Nevertheless, the Egyptian rejection of this access raises speculation about how Egypt can navigate through this international effort on the road to imposing its will.
“Egypt has an obligation to help qualify and train Somali cadres, both inside Somalia and here in Egypt,” Ali al-Hefni, a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister for African affairs, told The New Arab.
“Egypt is also obliged to help Somalia in its fight against terrorism,” he added.
Distrust
Egypt has grown distrustful of Ethiopia over the centuries, even before the Horn of Africa state started constructing its Blue Nile dam.
The two nations are long-time rivals, but the dam issue has increased hostility between them, particularly in the presence of belief in Egypt that Ethiopia is constructing the dam to bring it down to its knees, given the deep effects the power project will have on water supply to Egypt and its economy.
The Egyptian president describes the dam issue repeatedly as one that directly touches his country’s very survival.
Ethiopia says, meanwhile, that the electricity to be generated by the dam will address an acute power shortage in it and bring in much-needed revenues for its people.
This diversion has turned the row between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Ethiopia-Somaliland memorandum of understanding into an opportunity for Egypt to gain a foothold in the Horn of Africa, a region vital for its strategic interests.
Apart from having apprehensions towards the dam, Egypt also views Ethiopia’s desire to be present on the Red Sea with a lot of scepticism, analysts said.
“Egypt views Ethiopian presence on the Red Sea as a threat to its security and the security of the international maritime movement in the sea,” independent national security expert, Mohamed Abdelwahid, told TNA.
“Ethiopia only wants to increase its influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea in ways that harm Egypt’s strategic interests,” he added.
If it gains access to the Red Sea, Ethiopia will be the first non-Arab state to gain this access.
The Red Sea is vital for the Egyptian economy and Egypt’s security, being a conduit to the Suez Canal, a crucial foreign currency source for the Egyptian economy and the fastest route between Europe and Asia.
This is why Egypt brooked no delay in coming to Somalia’s help when the latter country demanded this help in the face of Ethiopia’s disregard for its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
At Somalia’s request, Egypt has sent three arms shipments to the Horn of Africa country so far, along with thousands of troops. Some of those troops will participate in a United Nations-backed peacekeeping mission in Somalia, replacing Ethiopian troops in the same mission.
Rivalry
While the Egyptian foreign minister talked in Cairo about his country’s opposition to Ethiopian presence on the Red Sea, the Somali president paid a surprise visit to Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia.
In the Ethiopian capital, Mohamud discussed with Ahmed the restoration of diplomatic ties, for the first time since the row over the Ethiopian-Somaliland deal started in January last year.
Some people viewed the visit of the Somali president to Ethiopia as a new Somali tactic to play major regional powers against each other for the benefit of his country.
The presumed tactic opens the way for debates about what Egypt can offer Somalia to win it to its side in the struggle for the Red Sea.
Security, analysts in Mogadishu say, is one important area where Egypt can aid Somalia, especially with the Horn of Africa state struggling to prevent the expansion of the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabab movement, which has been fighting to bring down the Somali government.
Egypt has a long counterterrorism experience, especially with its success in eradicating a branch of the Islamic State in Sinai, its north-eastern territory that shares borders with Israel and the Palestinian Gaza Strip.
“Egypt possesses a vast counterterrorism experience that can be very useful to Somalia as it battles al-Shabaab movement,” Mohamed Abtidon, a researcher at the Mogadishu-based Somalia Studies Centre, told TNA.
“Egypt can also offer training to the Somali army and supply it with intelligence, not to mention the economic support Egypt can offer Somalia,” he added.
Source: The New Arab
