By Faisal Roble

Jubbaland at a Crossroad

Although a major achievement, the composition of the Interim Jubbaland Parliament (IJP), established on April 15, 2015, does require a significant tweaking to bring it in line with the Addis Ababa Agreement (AAA) of August 2013. Among other principles and goals, the AAA calls for a comprehensive reconciliation and political inclusivity among stakeholders in the region.

Bearing the brunt of civil war, Jubbaland has been bereft of the rare commodity of governance and rule of law thus being eclipsed by long periods of absence of state institutions. The serendipity of group conflicts seems to have produced perineal suspicions and mistrusts among clans in the region. Any recovery effort shall, therefore, be sensitive to inclusivity and optimization of representation.

Unfortunately, the newly seated Parliament has not optimized stakeholder’s representation. Many groups across the board, including the two most important traditional leaders in the entire Jubbaland region-Ugas Boqow, a highly celebrated judicious sultan, and the Ugas Hashi, the traditional supreme authority in Gedo-see the current parliamentary architecture as unsatisfactory and less inclusive. To express their outrage, both traditional leaders in line with many other citizens held provocative press conferences in Kismayo and Mogadishu, respectively, bringing their grievance to the open.

Even with UNISOM and IGAD’s conditional endorsement and the tepid endorsement by President Hasan Sheikh Mahamoud, President Ahmed Madobe’s total victory has been tainted. However, his accomplishments so far can only be turned into a legacy if he achieves internal cohesion by placating disgruntled clans within the Jubba region, and if he obtains a buy-in from the International Community (IC) which will not fully endorse a clumsy and unfair process. To get there, the interim President has to deliver on UNISOM’s recommendations one of which calls upon Jubbaland leadership to open up dialogue with aggrieved groups so as to respect the AAA. As we speak, that agreement has not been implemented as needed, and internal cohesion is steadfastly eroding.

Comprising three key southern states, Gedo, Lower and Middle Jubbas, it is one of the largest and probably richest states yet with the most deprived citizens in Somalia. It is also one of the most diverse regions comprising a mosaic of communities and clans, albeit with impoverished citizens caused by civil war, human displacement and chronic unemployment.

During and after the 1991 civil war, the region has been ruled and harassed by different armed groups who had employed brute force. First were the Somali national alliance (SNA-Salbalaadh) and its offshoot, brothers of Galgaduud in the late- to mid-1990s; then came the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), and its splinter group i.e., Alshabab until 2011. In 2011, Ahmed Madoobe’s forces, with the help of the Somali Federal Government and Kenyan air and ground forces, finally ejected Alshabab forces and let Ahmed Madobe take residence in the ramshackle state house.

In august 2013, IGAD brokered a settlement between pro-Mogadishu side and Ahmed Madobe thereby (1) recognizing Mr. Ahmed Modobe as the interim president of the region for a period of two years (from August 2013 through August 27, 2015); and (2) establishing core principles one of which was reconciliation of stakeholders. Some of the President’s critics voice discontent about lack of commitment to reconciliation. His supporters argue that the Interim President has achieved major milestone in Southern Somalia by defeating Al-Shabab and by bringing a semblance of normalcy to Jubbaland. There is a consensus that Jubbaland is far better today than two years ago. The question is how to preserve such gains and break up the logjam.

Recommendation to Close the Fault Line 

The fate of this region weighs heavily on the future of the rest of Somalia. Jubbaland is to Somalia what the Katanga region is to the Republic of Congo. Stabilizing and sustainably managing clan fault lines in Jubbaland is key towards inching Somalia into sustainable recovery.

The first priority for the current Jubbaland administration should be to ready and align the state for vision 2016, and start partnering with other states as well as with the central government. Doing so requires implementing the letter and spirit of the Addis Ababa Agreement, particularly the principal of reconciliation. Not doing so will reverse the gains so far achieved.

The parliament in its current composition, where many stakeholders are rejecting it, is not sustainable. In that context, the following options can be considered to bring back all stakeholders to the fold and have them endorse the Interim Jubbaland Administration. 

1) Declare Current Parliament as an Interim

Have the newly seated Parliament function up and until August 27, 2015, in line with Addis Ababa Agreement and initiate an entirely new process thereafter to establish a new parliament that encompasses all stakeholders and promotes parity in the allocation of seats.

Evaluation: This option while satisfying the Addis Ababa Agreement may also be palatable to those groups who are dissatisfied, but not to the Interim President and his allies. It could create a new stalemate especially in light of the fact that President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud has allegedly extended the reign of the President.

2) Unseat about 16 Parliamentarian Positions 

This option seeks to unseat about 16 parliamentarians that many stakeholders believe to have been manipulated by the Interim President. Decommissioning those 16 members and establishing an equitable way of reapportioning these seats may bring the parliament in consistency with the spirit of the Addis Ababa Agreement which calls for the primacy of the principal of reconciliation.   

Evaluation: It is unlikely that the Interim President and his allies would accept to implement this option for the simple reason that it may minimize the influence or it may be perceived as questioning the judgment of President Ahmed Madobe.

3) Go back to the Drawing Table to Establish a New Parliament 

This option would start the entire process of selecting parliamentarians afresh. There has been so far immense human and resources investment to seat the current imperfect parliament. 

Evaluation: This option is neither cost effective nor time efficient. In light of the central government’s reenergized move to deliver on vision 2016, restarting the process does not seem to be feasible. Nor is it good for the majority of the people of Jubbaland.

4) Increase the Size of the Parliament 

Increase the current size of the Parliament from 75 to 95 seats and utilize the additional numbers to address both the Addis Agreement and the conditional support which UNISOM and IGAD have extended to IJA. Additionally, an agreement or a Presidential degree can be made to top up the number of seat to 95, with the additional seats set aside for communities with legitimate grievances.

This can be creatively undertaken either IMMEDIATELY by a Presidential decree, or during the REGIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL deliberations where the process could be doubled up as a reconciliation conference, and as such statement of principles on reconciliation, inclusivity, tolerance and community cohesion, all of which are core values of the federal constitution or the charter of Jubbaland, could be issued.

Evaluation: This option is the most attractive and most plausible option with the least disruption to the process of state formation in Jubbaland. If this alternative were to be accepted, allocation of the additional seats should be prioritized in order to (a) compensate the groups that have been completely marginalized; and (b) address the need to create parity or narrow the gap in seats between major stakeholders.

If this latter option is taken, it is plausible to expect that IJA would not only position itself as an exemplary model for other emerging regional administrations, but it will demonstrate to the Somali people as well as the International Community that the Somali institutions, if left alone, can certainly resolve their political differences through dialogue and deliberations.

This article is an excerpt of a longer article. Mr. Roble’s second article related to Jubbaland  will be published in the next few weeks.

Faisal Roble
WardheerNews contributor
Email: faisalroble19@gmail.com
——

Faisal Roble is a writer, political analyst and a former Editor-in-Chief of WardheerNews, mainly interested in the Horn of Africa region. He is currently the Principle Planner for the City of Los Angeles in charge of Master Planning, Economic Development and Project Implementation Division.