By Faisal Roble

General Observations

Jason Mosley‘s research paper (September 2015, Chatham House of the Royal Institute of International Affairs) is a timely appraisal of Somalia’s challenges and opportunities in its forward movement to establish better governance. The paper is a fair, well-researched analysis, albeit with theoretical flawed, of Somalia’s tortured journey to constitutional federalism, the democratization challenges facing it, and the conflation of international and regional actors shaping Somalia; it allocates enough space, with subtitles, to three pillars of the new Somalia that are Puntland, Jubbaland and the Federal government. For reasons that are beyond the scope of this assessment, the paper omits or limits discussion of Somaliland, Southwest and GalMudug.

The paper also gives a cursory review of the origins of Somalia’s federalism by going back to the I.M.Lewis- Mayall report, “A Study of Decentralized Political Structure for Somalia: A Menu of Options.” Three options provided in this study were: Consociational form of government, a decentralized unitary state, and federalism. Other options on the table at the time included secession and a full-blown disintegration of Somalia. Mosely observes that the “federalist option project appears still to be viable, if under strain.” He distinguishes “between the prospects for continued institution-building and capacity-strengthening within the current context of federalism, and the questions of legitimacy and inclusivity.” Somalia lacks both, giving more weight to the later for state reconstruction.

While Mosley’s research paper has empirical strengths, especially in its discussion of the pitfalls of the 4.5 power-sharing and how this formula contaminated democratic representation (I will come back to this), its theoretical weaknesses are paramount.
Mosley advances five general overarching observations:

• Hopes for elections in 2016 are slipping away and dwindling by the day.
• The intractable dependence of Somalia on foreign powers – both frontline and regional states – is an integral part of “rebuilding” Somalia.
• There are dangers associated with fast-tracking or/and fabricating regional states before they are organically ready, especially when/if the new states jeopardize the gains so far made. The GalMudug and Puntland conflict is cited as a case in point.
• Puntland’s constant conflict with Mogadishu and the bullish approaches of the federal government versus the regions with regard to the interpretation of the Draft Constitution and resource-sharing have to a degree contributed to the stagnation of federating Somalia.
• The failure of the 4.5 formula and the exclusion of smaller and unarmed groups from power-sharing are already sowing the seeds for yet further political instability in the country.

Read more: Assessing Chatham House’s paper –  Somalia’s Federal Future: Layered Agenda’s, Risks and Unity

Faisal Roble
WardheerNews contributor
Email: faisalroble19@gmail.com
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Faisal Roble is a writer, political analyst and a former Editor-in-Chief of WardheerNews, mainly interested in the Horn of Africa region. He is currently the Principle Planner for the City of Los Angeles in charge of Master Planning, Economic Development and Project Implementation Division.