To: H.E. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud President of the Federal Republic of Somalia

From: Ahmed Abbas Ahmed,
Former Advisor to the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia on Federal Affairs (2022–2024)

Mr. President, following due salutations, the decision to issue this letter as an open communication is compelled by the grave and unprecedented convergence of two developments: first, the Somali state-building process entering a phase of profound uncertainty; and second, the Government of Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland as an independent sovereign state.

Mr. President, to underscore the gravity of the message conveyed herein, I find it necessary to situate my argument within historical reference points from Somalia’s modern political experience—events I personally witnessed and which are extensively documented in the work of the late Ambassador Mahmoud Osman Omar (1937–2014). His book, written in English and published in 1992 under the title The Road to Zero, was authored during the second year following the national catastrophe that befell Somalia on 26 January 1991.

The book constitutes a reflective political memoir, tracing the author’s formative years during the United Nations Trusteeship period, when Southern Somalia was returned to Italian administration under UN supervision for a ten-year transitional mandate (1950–1960) aimed at preparing the territory for independence. It further provides a critical examination of the structural deficiencies of Somalia’s civilian governments (1960–1969), deficiencies that enabled the armed forces to execute a relatively effortless coup d’état, and it documents the devastating consequences of the subsequent military regime, which ultimately drove the Somali state to institutional collapse between 1969 and 1991.

Mr. President, the relevance of this book to the present moment lies in its analysis of three decisive crises confronted by the late President Mohamed Siad Barre (may God have mercy upon him) during his tenure:

1) Somalia’s defeat in the 1977 war with Ethiopia.
2) The presidential automobile accident of 26 May 1986; and
3) The 1989 political initiative advanced by the Manifesto Group.

Had President Mohamed Siad Barre exercised the political foresight to independently take the necessary corrective decisions, or alternatively accepted the counsel presented to him at those critical junctures, it is reasonable to conclude that Somalia might have been spared the total disintegration of state authority and the collapse of national unity. In such a scenario, Somalia’s existence would not have been reduced to little more than the residual security of its geographical location on the world map particularly within the strategic Horn of Africa absent functional sovereignty.

The decision taken by Israel on 26 December 2025 to recognize Somaliland as an independent state constitutes the second great national calamity to confront Somalia. This act directly undermines and fractures the territorial integrity of the Somali Republic as defined under international law. Moreover, this development casts a deeply troubling shadow over your historical legacy as a national leader, as it occurred during your second, non-consecutive term as President of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

It is beyond dispute that when you were elected for a second term on 15 May 2022, there existed no credible indication that any member state of the United Nations would contemplate or endorse a unilateral recognition of Somaliland. At that time both domestically and internationally there remained a widely shared expectation that Somalia was on a trajectory toward the restoration of full and effective statehood. The international community anticipated engaging with a unified Somali state as a sovereign whole, rather than entering into formal relations with a constituent part of its territory as a separate political entity.

Mr. President, Notwithstanding the gravity of the existential threat confronting the nation which does not permit complacency or indecision it cannot be ignored that during your most recent term of office you have repeatedly and without restraint misused executive authority, without due regard for constitutional limits or political consensus. This conduct has resulted in the fragmentation of those forces that were once unified under the foundational national principle that “the territorial and civic unity of Somalia is inviolable.” It is precisely this condition of internal political disarray that Israel perceived and exploited as an opportunity.
It is beyond doubt that, should a renewed atmosphere of national vigilance and collective resolve be fostered one that credibly demonstrates Somalia’s unwavering commitment to the preservation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity the international community will continue to extend its support to Somalia’s legitimate and lawful cause.

Conversely, if you choose to seek re-election and remain in power, or attempt tocling to authority by any means necessary, such conduct would constitute a profound betrayal of public trust. History would remember you as the leader under whose watch the final remnants of Somalia’s national aspirations were extinguished—not by foreign aggression, but by deliberate political obstinacy. The responsibility for such an outcome would be inescapable and entirely your own. Such an outcome is one from which refuge is sought in Allah (SWT).

Mr. President, If Somalia is to be preserved, and if you are to merit a dignified and honorable place in history, it is incumbent upon you to demonstrate the courage to undertake two decisive and statesmanlike actions.

1) The first decision requires that you formally and substantively accept both in letter and in spirit the Communiqué on the Future of Somalia issued in Kismayo and dated 20 December 2025, with particular emphasis on the following provisions:

(a) The Third Clause, which stipulates that “the Social Contract underpinning Somalia’s state-building process is founded upon the Provisional Constitution of 2012, and that any unilateral amendments introduced by the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia to the Constitution are null, void, and without legal effect.” Accordingly, you are obligated to suspend and discontinue any action, policy, or electoral framework that contravenes the 2012 Provisional Constitution, including any electoral model that lacks national consensus;

(b) That you implement the accompanying request to convene all national political stakeholders prior to 20 January 2026, and that you formally propose that the issue of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland be accorded top national priority following your explicit acceptance and implementation of the clause above.

2) The second decision no less obligatory and consequential is that you publicly and unequivocally commit to not seeking a third term as President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, under any circumstances.

And success is only from Allah (SWT).

Axmed Cabaas Axmed
Email: abbssone@yahoo.com
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Somali version: An Open letter to President Hassan Sheikh