By Faisal A. Roble
Prologue
Since the talks in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, between delegates from the Federal Government of Somalia and the administration of Jubbaland concluded, both my email and my telephone message racks have been flooded with requests to give my take on the meaning of the talks and the agreement produced.
On August 27, 2013, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Jubba, formerly Jubbaland, delegations signed a binding agreement, comprising of four major articles and 23 Sections. These articles and all their respective Section are organized into the following general categories:
1. Establishment of an interim government
2. Management of Institutions
3: Management of Security Forces and Militias Integration
4. Reconciliation and Confidence-Building
The most contentious issues are covered under articles one and two, while the easily achievable goals, yet with equally a lasting dividend, are expressed in Articles 3 and 4. If the two parties go wrong on the architectures of getting and implementing article four (reconciliation), as for example the government in Mogadishu has politicized reconciliation in the past, or go wrong in troops integration, the agreement signed could easily be foiled and undermined, thus inching Somalia towards a more tangible disintegration. Although article four calls for the immediate commencement of a reconciliation meeting in a period of two weeks, this goal is undoubtedly overoptimistic and thus on the cusp of being a phantom objective. Contrary to the call in the agreement, the right approach to a meaningful reconciliation approach should have included well-sequenced talks with the following order:
1- A hands-on meeting of confidence-building in Mogadishu in two weeks between the parties who led the delegations to Addis excluding the President of Somalia and the leader of the Jubba must take place. These preliminary talks shall be attended by Professor Gandh, Prime Minster Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke (Juba side) and Farah Abdulkadir for the FGS and his associates.
2- A follow up meeting should have been identified to take place in Mogadishu with a face-to-face meeting with Presidents Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud and Ahmed Islan, including their top advisors. In this second meeting, the expected deliverables would be for the two leaders to agree on a comprehensive reconciliation roadmap but only limited to the Jubba issue.
3- A third and more inclusive meeting should be a tripartite one between President Hassan, Presidents Faroole of Puntland and Ahmed Islan of the Jubba to discuss the modalities of a national reconciliation and a road map to manage Somalia’s 23-years old conflict. The modalities to roll out this would be delegated to their advisors.
Rushing the process or manipulating the architecture of the reconciliation modalities by the ever shifty elite of Mogadishu will only derail the good and low hanging fruit identified in the Addis agreement. If that happens, the whole enchilada of searching for a peaceful Somalia would be tattered, hence create major disappointment in the country across the regions.
Analyzing the Agreement
In the art of mediation, negotiation and conflict resolution, the best outcome is when all sides feel winners and the parties have something to take back to their constituents.
John Paul, a Mennonite scholar in conflict resolution and past director of the Eastern Mennonite institute at Harrisonburg, where President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud spent one summer learning how a Christianity-based theory resolves conflicts, argues that parties are more likely to resolve completely or partially their conflicts when the contradiction is at its zenith, and when the parties to the conflict can no longer sustain the war.
After the foil of the FGS-financed armed conflict in Kismayo, it was the end of a long treacherous process where Mogadishu came to realize the limit to force, thus endorsing the only available yet unavoidable rational conclusion: that Ahmed Mohamed Islam has broader legitimacy in Jubba than the SFG or its lackeys, and a peaceful settlement through negotiation with him is the only way out. That last minute realization of the correct path to peace was also the conclusion regional governments who “interest” Somalia affairs came to.
It is an Orwellian occurrence that the Addis Ababa agreement of August 27, 2013 on the FGS-Jubba talks anchors on the linguistically rich Amharic language of Wax and Gold concept (Sam and Work). Wax and Gold in Somali would be equivalent to the Shell of the Honey (wax) and the Honey itself (Liquid honey). Or, the closest Somali concept to Wax and Gold concept is Sarbeeb (metaphor).
In the tradition of Wax and Gold, every phrase in the spoken word or in the Amharic language consists of Wax and Gold, the former being the form while the latter is the content, meaningful content that is. Although both sides won, I believe the FGS took home the Wax and Jubba leadership delivered the Gold to its constituents.
Section 1 of Article 1 of the agreement reads as follows: The Federal Government of Somalia and the Jubba delegations have agreed on to an Interim Administration for Jubba, consisting of Gedo, Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba Regions without prejudice to whatever the people of these regions decide finally as a result of constitutional process. This Interim Administration shall be called the Interim Jubba Administration.
The Wax in this article is the name change from Jubbaland to Jubba. The Gold, however, is that the legal recognition given to the residents of the above mentioned three regions and the grass roots effort they put into the process of regional state formations.
Henceforth, the people of Jubba would maintain their local governance, their local flag, their local parliament, a 15 member cabinet and all other rights and privileges conferred upon them by the Provisional Somali Federal Constitution of Somalia (PSFC). Not only is Jubba administration legitimate, but it is also legal in the eyes of the FGS and the rest of the world. By the stroke of signing the agreement, Jubba became a legal and a legitimate entity of Somalia’s emerging federal system. Moreover, the misrepresentation that Jubba was being on the course of secession or annexation by neighboring countries has been debunked.
As to the name choice of “state” or “administration,” that issue would be settled after the national commission for boundaries and state formation decides on the modalities of whether regional governments throughout Somalia would be called “states,” “regions,” “zones” or even “administrative regions.”
In other words, whatever applies to Somaliland, Puntland, or the emerging regional governments in the rest of Federal Somalia would also apply to Jubba. What is good for the Goose is good for Gander, as the American saying goes. This is to affirm that nothing unique or particular in the form of naming regions would be carved out for Jubba region. This name change, therefore a Wax, but not real content, FGS scored.
Section 9 of Article one also reads “While the local Government Act takes into effect, the Governors of lower Jubba and Middle Jubba Regions shall be appointed by the Leader based on quota basis ensuring inclusiveness in consultation with local elders and Federal Government of Somalia. The current Gedo administration will remain as it is for now.”
The current governor installed by Mogadishu as part of Prime Minister Shirdoon’s strategy of conflict production will stay put, a decision the Juuba delegation welcomed with open arms. Yet, I argue that the big prize is won by Jubba residents who always wanted that their brethren in Gedo stay within the framework of Jubba regional administration, whereas Mogadishu elites led by the sitting Prime Minister, Shirdoon, and his proxy in the conflict, Colonel Barre Hiiraale, wanted to annex Gedo to other regions. Permitting Gedo to be part of Jubba eliminates the unsustainable policy of divide and rule of the Gedo community that Mogadishu has been pursuing.
Ceding Gedo from the rest of Jubba did not happen, as Shirdoon would have wanted it.
Contrary to those who kowtowed to the wishes of the Prime Minister, the politics Jubba residents pursued so far was more than the politics of personality; rather it was politics of posterity and good prospect. Gedo is part of Jubba forever and that is the political prize that carries the posterity of the day.
Although both sides are winners, the delegation of Jubba had delivered the Gold to its often maligned residents, and the recalcitrant Mogadishu delegates would take the Wax to Shirdoon and to his supporters.
The only question one wants to answer is what is to make of Shirdoon’s relevance to the governance of Somalia and his ability to command respect now that his number one political agenda, to cede Gedo from Jubba through conflict, even if that required bloodletting, proved to be a farce strategy. One is tempted to wonder if there is any more luster left with Shirdoon as a PM lest the FGS’s policy towards Jubba is no longer based on conflict production by way of dividing brotherly clans but consensus making. Unless another assignment is identified for Shirdoon, there is no luster left in his premiership.
Article 2, Sections 10 through 15 carefully deal with the second most contentious issue – the issue of control over national resources including but not limited to the lucrative port of Kismayo and the strategically located gateway of Kismayo Airport. After careful analysis, one would come to the conclusion that the agreement reached so far is fair and balanced.
Some of the most contentious details embedded in these Sections would be resolved per the PSFC and guidelines to be drafted at a future date. Just one caution here is that any dealings with both the Port and the Airport should not be manipulated by the centralists by way of distorting and illegally changing the contents of the PSFC.
To maintain the integrity of the agreement, it is important to remember that President Farool’s challenge to Mogadishu on the question of changing and illegally emending the PSFC has yet to be settled. The Puntland-led struggle to ensure the curtailment of illegal amendment and changes to the PSFC must be vigorously supported.
On the issue of managing the national infrastructure, one needs to recognize that ports and airports have both national and local role, and as such come under dual jurisdictions. For example, immigration and import-export related matters fall within the sphere of the federal government. However, staffing those institutions and resources should not be imported from outside the Jubba region. In the process of sharing jurisdiction of the above mentioned resource, Jubba should feel weary about the runaway corruption that had blanketed Mogadishu. This is a challenge to be managed.
If handled correctly, the co-management of national infrastructures and federal institutions represent positive opportunity areas for both sides to work together for the reconstruction of the country.
Articles three (security) and four (reconciliation) are opportunities for Mogadishu and Kismayo to start working on a unified front to fight against the entrenched Alshabab forces. Outside Mogadishu city, the second highest concentration of Alshabab is in the Gedo area. The forces of Raskamboni (a portion of it to be soon drafted as part of the Somali National Army), taking advantage of their battle field acquired warfare tactics against Alshabab and armed with the recently acquired weapons soon to be transferred from Mogadishu, could bring decisive victory for stabilizing southern Somalia.
Moving Forward
Prior to the agreement, Mogadishu was a legal government with no legitimacy among the jubbalanders. On the other hand, the Jubba administration was an entity that enjoyed a high degree of legitimacy with no legal status.
After the August 27, 2013 Addis agreement, Mogadishu has yet to acquire the legitimacy of the Somalis stretching from Somaliland, through Puntland, down to the beaches of Kismayo. But Jubba administration today is a solid legal as well as legitimate entity in the rebuilding of the country from the regions and certainly not from Mogadishu.
With this agreement concluded, Jubba, Somaliland, and Puntland are the major entities in the makeup of the federated future Somalia. Just as Germany went through difficulty in formulating its now successful federal system, the dust from the carnage of federal making in Somalia is about to settle.
A thank you note to those leaders on both sides who burned the mid night oil to get us this agreement. In particular, I like to thank the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh for coming to his sense that better late than never is better alternative. I also would like to thank the President of Jubba for his caution and patience in the face of adversity. Certainly, Somalis all over need to thank Puntland and its leadership for being the watchdog of the integrity of the Somali Federal Constitution; a particular recognition goes to President Faroole for his unwavering struggle to assure that the PSFC is not distorted. No lesser thanks must be given to Farah AbdulKadir, a man who speaks with measured words intelligently, Professor Gandhi, Somalia’s father of Grass roots governance, and the tireless Prime Minister, the new phoenix of peace making, Omar Abdi Rashid, and Premiere Gedi Ali, who broke clan barriers by standing for values and not for clan identity.
If this agreement is implemented the Somali people are the sole winners.
Faisal A. Roble
Email:[email protected]
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