By Ibrahim Shire

On a sunny breezy afternoon on 27th of May, Mogadishu’s elite gathered at the iconic Somali Youth League (SYL) Hotel. The guest included two former prime ministers, former ministers, past and present parliamentarians, clan elders and notable dignitaries from journalism, civil society and women groups. All were present for Ambassador Ahmed Aabdisalam’s announcement that he is a candidate for president of Mudug and Galgaduud. His announcement was welcomed by most observers but it sent shockwaves to Dam-Jadiid and their candidate Abdikarim Hussein Guled. Abdikarim is supported by the President of Somalia but his campaign has not been well received in Mudug and Gal-Gaduud.

A visionary in Somalia

Amb. Ahmed Abdisalam is a well known and respected politician – a rarity in Somali politics – and the architect of the Djibouti agreement which enabled a political settlement between the moderate wing of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia during his time as Deputy Prime Minister in 2008/9. He was influential in building trust between the two warring Somali groups – the TFG and ARS – and convincing regional and international powers to give negotiations a chance to succeed. The agreement also facilitated the withdrawal of Ethiopia from Mogadisho. A senior advisor to the TFG at the time noted ‘as a man of Mogadisho, he was deeply affected by the killings and destruction of the city. Most of us thought negotiations were doomed but he had a vision and worked tirelessly to bring it about in a difficult political context’. The Djibouti Agreement paved the way for stability and the progress we see today.

Amb Ahmed’s history is filled with examples of achieving the impossible. In 1999 he co-founded the first independent radio station in Mogadisho – HornAfrik. The station was influential in shaping society in Mogadisho and challenging the ruthless warlords that dominated the city since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991. In 2002 HornAfrik received the Canadian Journalist for Free Expression Award. Abdirashid Warsame who worked with Amb Ahmed at HornAfrik is not surprised by his success in politics. Leaning forward in his chair he says ‘he is a visionary, he has a way of working with people, motivating them, of…… achieving the impossible’.

The State of Mudug and Galgaduud

Now that Amb Ahmed has officially announced his candidacy, his next destination is likely Adaado, where the elections will be held. The process is murky but the next President of the region is supposed to be elected by dignitaries, who are in turn appointed by clan elders with the help and supervision of an independent committee. The committee was appointed by the Federal Government but many observers have raised questions about its independence, and in private voice concerns that it has been compromised by the President and his allies, Dam-Jadiid. As a result increasing number of clans are boycotting the process, particularly clans in north Gal-Gaduud where Amb Ahmed has strong support.

Amb Ahmed has strong roots in the region, particularly in the main hubs of Dhusamareeb, Guriceel, Caabudwaq, Galkacyo and El-dheer. In 2012 he was wounded in a suicide attack by Al-shabaab in Dhusamareeb, while consulting with elders on how to improve security and develop a regional administration. The attack claimed many lives, including two Somali Parliamentarians. Amb Ahmed is undeterred by Al-shabaab and is determined to ensure the region seizes this unique opportunity to elect capable leadership that can address security and development challenges. His main opponent is likely Abdikarim, who has strong support from the President of Somalia, and is thought to be using state assets and the Ministry of Interior – overseeing the process – to ensure his man wins. But Amb Ahmed’s supporters are un-faced by this. In an enthusiastic voice one of his supporters states that ‘Abdikarim is Hassan’s [President of Somalia] man in this region but Ahmed is the man of the elders and people in this region, fighting for their interest in Somalia’. They note that clan elders in this region are strongly independent minded and can’t be bribed or manipulated and will ultimately vote for the candidate who they think will advance the region. Looking at the array of elders who have positively received Amb Ahmed’s candidacy, he might be right.

There is also a lively debate online on what his announcement will mean for Mudug and Gal-Gaduud and Somalia, more widely. Some observers point to his positive role in the Djibouti Agreement whilst others highlight his technical skills and experience in state building and activism. The messages are supportive of his announcement but the mood was most succinctly captured by Somali MP Abdi Hosh who stated ‘It is my opinion that he is the best and most credible candidate out there: a former civil servant, a former Media personality who was also very active in civil society work during the early 2000s, a former Deputy Prime Minister and the current Ambassador of Somalia to Ethiopia. As someone who has a keen sense of social and community reconciliation and believes that Peace is attainable, I am sure that the Ambassador will bring peace (that rare commodity in our society) to the region.’

Ibrahim Shire
Email: ibrahimshire@gmail.com