By Mahdi Sheikh Ahmed

It is the silly season in Mogadishu—again!  But the on-going political shenanigans aside emanating from Banadir aside, the Somali nation is perched on the threshold of veritable socio-political change.  The change is taking root in parts of the country and it would inevitably lead to sustainable social development. Many Somalis and Somalia watchers, would tend to see the foregoing statement as an audacious assertion that flies in the face of the persistent political squabbles in Villa Somalia, and conflate that erroneous appraisal to the rest of the country.  And it is a widely held, but mistaken, perception that the country is hopelessly stuck in a vicious cycle: one step forward and two steps backwards; trapped in a virtual vice-like grip of cosmic proportions that would severely constrict its capacity for social developmental for the foreseeable future.   

That perception is, however, misguided.  For it is fraught with oversimplification of complex social issues borne out of ignorance and intellectual laziness.  As a result of that mindset, all manner of negativity is amplified, while the myriad positive activities occurring throughout the country, including the steady progress on the road to political devolution, are ignored or grossly under reported.  Instead, a self-fulfilling prophecy that regurgitates a caricature of the Somali society is bandied about in the court of public opinion, at home and internationally; alas, Somalis as much as others repeat this superficial narrative about the country, ad infinitum.

 This is no accident.  After the collapse of the central government in 1991 and the attendant, atrocious inter-clan and intra-clan warfare, the Somali nation state was practically left for dead by much of the world, including the United Nations organization (UN).  Politically, the country was seen as good as chewed to cud.  This, when the situation was getting more desperate by the day.  The big challenge for the International Community then was how to deliver humanitarian aid to civilians, who, for no fault of their own, suffered greatly due to the clan-based militia-wars.

To this end, a number of “reconciliation conferences” were improvised and fast-tracked by regional and international actors.  From the standpoint of Somali national interest, most of those so-called conferences ended in abject failure. But the Somali attendees went through the motions. The result was the formation of “Transitional Governments” (of which there were several).  Since they were practically imposed, all of the TSGs failed due to internal conflicts that were left unaddressed by the hastily arranged conferences. 

It has to be mentioned here, however, that some of the transitional leaders made valiant, but fully unsuccessful, efforts to stabilize the country.  Suffice it to say, events conspired against their plans to achieve peace and reconciliation. And the stage was set for ruling Somalia by fiat via through the problematic mode of “transitional governments”.  So after each transitional period, tangible progress seemed a distant dream.

By mid-2000s more disquieting pessimism set in.  People the world over began to wonder why Somalis would not readily accept their apparent lot as tagline for “failed state” and go into the sun set, gracefully.  They also came to the realization that hands off policy was no solution. Especially, as religious fanatics began to wage an indiscriminate war on society that rendered the implacable clan militia hostilities of the recent past seem tame by comparison.

So a Transitional Government with robust external backing came to the scene. But it too lacked sufficient material support from the IC to get the job done. Soon enough it too went the way of the one before it—to certain political quagmire.  Next up, another TG led by “reformed”, former religious zealots, was set up pell-mell.  Its signature achievement were the so-called “Road Map” and the Provisional Somali Federal Constitution (PSFC).  Two defective tools that came out of a rather chaotic political process.  And they raised more questions than they provided answers; the other legacy of that transitional period is the current, putative non-Transitional Government—a regime that by all accounts failed to live up to the high hopes that were invested in it by plurality of the Somali public. From the outset the regime showed little interest in reaching out to broad-based communities in the country.  Instead, it acted condescendingly except to cliquey inner group made up of interlocking factions.  Within months it was clear to all that the regime was operating on biased agenda and soon afterwards its fate was sealed as being terribly recalcitrant and lacking credibility with regard to the extant laws of the land such as they are.  It has also turned out to be absurdly dysfunctional.   

This was partly due to the fact that most of the key office holders in the regime happened to be armatures.  They were not vetted properly to ensure that they had, at minimum, transferable experiences to perform the jobs for which they were hired. In short, key positions, including ministerial portfolios were assigned to individuals lacking basic qualifications.  For their part, the appointees reflexively fell back to pursuing the lowest common denominator—discharging of “public policy” strictly on the basis of primal clan neurosis.  Which is what one would expect from neophyte hyenas in the public hen house.  Their target: to brazenly foist highhanded schemes on a fatigued nation. Regrettably, by the time their major corrupt practices came to light, it was too late for damage control.  And once again Villa Somalia is the epicenter of yet another needless political crisis!

Fortunately, the misdeeds of hackneyed politicians would not pose crippling damage to the nation, this time around.  For while corruption could not be stamped overnight, its illicit practices are losing steam as the Somali people become increasingly impatient with its practitioners’ sordid deals.  There is budding paradigm shift in the offing and it is brought about by the fact that more areas of the country have begun in earnest to manage their own affairs.  More citizens are keeping watchful eyes on office holders, who hitherto used their positions as carte blanche to pilfer and otherwise expropriate public property.  Or steal national resources at will.  Mogadishu and its environs are the vexing exceptions to this promising trend.

The impending demise of unabashed corrupt practices is predicated on a number of factors.  The ingenious way in which Somalis conduct commerce across the country; an activity that debunks politicians’ short-sighted stratagems based on a flawed assumption that the society would forever be divided along clan lines. But as they assume the worst and act accordingly, the situation on the ground is changing markedly.  The process of doing away with centralization of authority is proofing to be good for business.  For as centralization emphasizes control, decentralization welcomes free enterprise and freedom of movement.

Gone is the era when office holders appointed from the national capital were assigned to regions and localities to which they had no particular connection, but wielded unfettered power which they routinely used to line their pockets and to otherwise abuse the local citizens. That system along with its extralegal practices is happily sun-setting.  It is being replaced with self-rule at the regional/state and local levels.  As a result, accountability is bound to increase exponentially.  And would undoubtedly spearhead far-reaching, revolutionary change.

This budding change attests to the Somali peoples’ resilience; qualities which their imprudent politicians seem to undervalue or misjudge on regular basis. Somalis have a long history of turning adversity into opportunity; a history that goes back eons, perhaps predating ancient Egypt of the Pharos (M. Shidad Hussein, 2011).  As a result of that history, the Somali society has developed impeccable social cohesion that is the envy of Africa, if not the World. 

That is why they are not easy people to pigeonhole.  Nor are they willing vassals for gratuitous compartmentalization.  Over the centuries they kept their social mores’ intact and fiercely fought against those bent on permanently partitioning their land into weak fiefdoms albeit with mixed results.  Somalis’ storied social cohesion bordering on homogeneity does not contradict federalism.  It’s complimentary to it.  

That is why even at this early stage, federalism is already enhancing democratic governance and coincidentally social progress, across the country. 

Moreover, if corrupt, clan-based-politics is discounted as a temporary phenomenon, Somali culture is largely informed by and benefits immensely from Islamic values.  Key precepts of which include living in brotherhood and being charitable with one’s neighbors.  And having gone through years of destructive civil war and virtual societal collapse, Somalis came around to appreciating the Qur’anic precept of “enjoining what is good and forbidding that which is wrong”.  These values along with the said prevalent social cohesion and the federalism would be mutually reinforcing in fully autonomous yet interdependent states, and local communities.

In addition to buttressing mutual support among Somalis across state boundaries, the evolving political decentralization, would do away with uneven development and its twin evil: marginalization of outlying regions beyond the seat of the central government.

It is true that the emerging variant of federalism in Somalia is being organized and implemented in a cumbersome fashion, thanks to the capricious 4.5 formula.  Still, it holds the high promise of untangling the country’s knotty politics through devolution of power and authority.  Its main attractive feature is the division of power between the central government and regions or states whatever the case may be.  Federalism in Somalia, however, will not be tidy as in the more developed, politically mature states of the West.  But its decentralizing principles would far outweigh its drawback as citizens in far-flung regions would be able exercise their right to have a say in the way in which they are governed.  Their increasing demand for accountability from those entrusted with responsibility for public office will lead to good governance.

But, even if it is well-crafted, federalism in and of itself would need great leadership to show the way forward to complete the circle of good governance.  However, in Somalia today, the want of inspiring leader(s) is the weak link in the effort to reestablish the country, as a working federal republic.  Moreover, leadership at the national level is not place for on-the-job-training; it would be gross disservice to the nation and unfair to the unlucky rocky that may be catapulted into such a challenging position.

Lastly, Somalia urgently needs capable leaders, who possess certain indispensable qualities.  These include, first and foremost, vision: to know how lead the country from the present doldrums to the ‘promise land’. They should be transformational leaders, whose competence is unquestioned.  They must be able to make real contribution with limited means.  They must be able to collaborate with folks from the various clans and communities in the country, and be able to earn their trust through good deeds (not by dazzling them with empty rhetoric).  In present-day Somalia, this is absolutely critical. There are other qualifications a leader needs to have but at this critical juncture in the nation’s history, a leader(s) possessing the abovementioned qualities would be well on his way to making difference.

Mahdi Sh. Ahmed
Email: asheikh99@hotmail.com