By Hassan Zaylai

President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud was reelected on a slogan, “Somalia at peace with itself and the world.”  However, more than two years into his second term, Somalia is neither at peace with itself nor with its biggest neighbor, Ethiopia. The country continues to grapple with internal strife, rampant corruption, political fragmentation, and persistent insecurity. In addition, relations with its most significant neighbor, Ethiopia, have deteriorated, further complicating Somalia’s quest for regional stability.

Domestically:

Owing to his predecessor, who left him with a rebuilt, professionalized, and well-paid armed forces, President Hassan Sheikh ordered an immediate and sustained attack on Al-Shabab, the armed militant group against peace in Somalia. At first, attacks against Al-Shabab by the Somalia military and its allies (AMISOM, ATMIS and Others) centered in the Hiiraan region of Hirshabele State (with the help of indigenous local clan forces called Macawisley). Gradually, the fighting against Al-Shabab’s focal point covered the entire Hirshabele State and the neighboring central state of Gulmudug, where the President would temporarily reside in its capital Dhusomareeb for months at a time to direct the fight against Al-Shabab. This was dubbed by the government as “phase one;” after which, phase two would begin in Lower Shabelle State of NorthWest and Jubbaland!

The government has claimed many successes in killing Al-Shabab terrorists, liberating large swaths of territory from it. However, the fact remains that, after all this time, Al-Shabab forces are still in Hiiraan (they are even on the outskirts of Beladwayne, the Hirraan region capital), Hirshabelle State and Gulmudug State. Clearly, it looks like a game of “wack-a-mole’ with Al-Shabab (please refer to the term).

The Somali military generals, the professionals, are sidelined in favor of politics, where the mouthpiece for military campaigns is assigned to a Somalia version of “Baghdad Bob,” like Vice Minister Al-Adaala. If one adds up all the dead figures of Al-Shabab given by our Baghdad Bob, Al-Shabab should have ceased long ago.

The military’s lack of a sound military strategy to dismantle and defeat Al-Shabab can only happen if the decision-making of the military is rendered second to a civilian, short-sighted policy from the top in Villa Somalia!

However, it is clear that constant military activities against Al-Shabab has earned the president some capital internationally. Hence, the lifting of the Armed embargo on Somalia and other developments, such as the US expanding Danab Brigade training and bases. This is a result of President Hassan Sheikh’s impression-making that he and his administration are constantly going after Al-Shabab. The President’s donning of a military fatigue and staying at fronts for months at a time is a clear example of such a successful image-making.

When his term in office draws close to its end, if Al-Shabab (and I pray to Allah that I will be proven wrong on that, and that the President succeeds in defeating Al-Shabab instead) is still at the outskirts of Beladwayne, in Hirshabeelle and in Gulmudug, the President’s stark failure will be clear and can never be overcome by charlatanism game of “wack-a-Mole”  with the only obstacle to peace in Somalia, the dreadful terror group of Al-Shabab!

On the political front, Puntland State has declared temporary independence from Somalia due to a huge chasm created by, among other things, the amending of Somalia’s constitution by parliament at the behest of the President. Moreover, former presidents of Somalia, such as Farmajo and Sheikh Sharif, and other stakeholders, have rejected such a unilateral amending of the constitution. The contention in these constitutional amendments is the abolition of the Prime Minister’s office in favor of a presidential and vice presidential system with 5 years term, elected directly by the people.

Puntland’s position, and correctly so, is to hold a national referendum on such monumental constitutional changes.

In my estimation, this was not the time for such changes. Had the president (or any president of Somalia for that matter) succeeded in eradicating Al-Shabab and ushering in an all-enveloping peace throughout the country, such switching to a new electoral system would have been explainable, if not easily salable. Hassan Sheikh has not earned such credibility to steamroll his opponents like he did. So much for Somalia at peace!

Internationally:

“Somalia at peace with the world, remember?” The world without always starts with neighbors. Ethiopia as Somalia’s most important naeighbor, with 124 million people, has the second-largest population in Africa. Our neighbor to the West was the source of our “failed state” and subsequent meddling in our internal affairs ever since.

One must be politically deaf and dumb to ignore such a big elephant in the room neighbor with a history of bad blood. Mohammed Abdullahi Farmajo understood Ethiopia’s importance for peace and security in Somalia. He gave due respect to Ethiopia and demanded reciprocal due respect from Ethiopia, which Somalia received. The Ethiopian government had accepted, per Farmajo’s demand, to deal with the federal government in Mogadishu as the sole representative of all of Somalia. Consequently, Somaliland’s Addis Ababa office was shut down. Even Ethiopia’s shareholding of Berbera Port has been rescinded or ignored.

Similarly, Somalia rekindled its lost, longstanding romance with Eritrea. The Eritrean government took in thousands of young Somali men into professional training as capable fighting forces.

Ironically, during his second term campaign for the office against Farmajo,  Hassan Sheikh would wrongly call these thousands of Somali young men training in Eritrea as “sold out children” to foreign lands. He would also call the President of Eritrea a “dictator,” only to have Issias Afwerk become his bosom buddy after winning reelction.

Hassan Sheikh’s diplomatic mistakes were compounded by his inordinately cozying up to Egypt, an arch-enemy of Ethiopia. Such mistakes were also sealed by ignoring Ethiopia. I doubt that he has even been there once in Addis Ababa for an official visit!

As a result, Somalia’s National Security interest is severely injured. Ethiopia is in China, shopping for naval armada ships, while Muse Bihi (the president of self-appointed breakaway Somaliland region of Somalia) is breaking ground for an Ethiopian Naval base. However, this did not have to be the case. This was not inevitable.

In conclusion, as I have provided ample proof for both (under President Hassan Sheikh’s second term), Somalia is neither at peace with itself nor with its biggest neighbor country so far. None of that, however, will matter if the president defeats Al-Shabab, which (most unfortunately) is unlikely, given the madness of the method of going after Al-Shabab to date!  

Here is another big problem with President Hassan Sheikh’s current presidency in my opinion (this is my own observation about our president, Hassan Sheikh, which is even more egregious against the interest of Somali society’s cohision and inclusivity by its president): Is it me, or is it that President Hassan Sheikh disproportionately surrounds himselve with Hawiye clan (his clan) advisors? Even the top diplomat at Foreign ministry, which was usually allocated to northerners, is Hawiye run now. Can someone tell me why Hassan Sheikh would replace one Hawiye NISA cheif with another, the bigot Hawiyeist Sanbaloolshe?

For an educated president, to a PhD degree level, such clan naval-gazing is (how should I put it) incredibly naive, if not IGNORANT!  A president, any president of any country, needs “team of rivals” or differing opinions. In HSM’s case, as a leader of 4.5 clan-sharing Somalia polity, it is an obligation on him to surround himself the best of all clans to benefit from and reach at the most fruitful of decisions. Again, in my opinion, this explains his severe deficiency. If the thinking on his part behind that is, ” a win with all Hawiye team is a win for the clan;” then, inversely, ” a failure by all Hawiye team is Hawiye clan failure!

In clannish Somalia, if a president succeeds with a team of opposite clans, he and his clan is a winner, anyway! So, why would he handicap himself in such “local village” thinking! 

I want our president to succeed for all our sakes! I hope, as he still has amble time, he makes the necessary changes for Somalia’s sake and for a better legacy!

Hassan Zaylai
Email: haahzay @hotmail.com