By Ali H. Abdulla

Somalia may not get far with its current vague and snail-paced approach to the formation of Federal States. There are serious obstacles to the formation of Federal States in some of the regions. These obstacles can only contribute to the disintegration of the country. The way I see it, the country has several options to move forward. The options are not exhaustive but are meant to highlight some of the problems and challenges posed by the different approaches.

A UAE style Federal System

The UAE Federation is the most successful clan-based federal system unless we consider the Swiss cantons as a grouping of clans. Seven emirates ruled by different Sheikhs and populated by distinct or distantly related clans joined to form a modern country that shares important matters such as defense, foreign affairs, Education and monetary policy. Each Emirate has its own police force and maintains its local government. Each emirate owns its own resources but contributes to the Federal budget.

Somalia shares a lot with the UAE such as love of kinship, camels, horses and both have a history of a vibrant piracy industry along their shores. The British destroyed the powerful fleet of the Qasimi pirates in the beginning of the 19^th century, while a flotilla of foreign navies is struggling to end Somali piracy.

Unlike the UAE however, Somalia lacks powerful sheikdoms capable of providing leadership for their clans. In Somalia, the same clan may have more than one Sheikh. Although this could probably be mitigated by forming a Sheikhdom council for each clan which could elect a main Sheikh on a revolving basis, the individualistic and egalitarian nature of the Somalis would probably make that hard to achieve.

Unlike the UAE, Somalia also lacks a visionary leader like the late Sheikh Zayed who was instrumental in uniting the seven emirates and transforming them into a modern State that sports art museums at par with the French Louvre, medical cities that will rival the best in the West, and a futuristic city that will exclusively be powered by renewable energy sources. Despite all the progress achieved by the UAE, it also strives to maintain its past by preserving its culture in compliance with the famous Quote of Sheikh Zayed” A Nation without a past is a nation without a present or a future”. Unlike the UAE, Somalia allowed its history to fade. Its schools use various syllabi borrowed from foreign countries and you can hardly find a syllabus that incorporates the history of its illustrious past that goes back to the times of the Pharaohs. Famous historical sites such as Zayla, Mogadishu, Merca , Eyel, Taleh and Barawa were either looted in the civil war or fell into disrepair.

Although we can learn a lot from the UAE system, it may be impractical to implement in Somalia since major clans are scattered all over the country and it would be extremely difficult to establish contiguous clan enclaves that are based on the infamous 4.5 formula. At the same, clan-based States can magnify conflicts over boundaries and resources.

A Federal System that cuts across clan lines

The South-West and Jubaland States cut across clan lines and are populated by more than one unrelated clans. Another Federal State in the making is the Central State which can potentially unite the old regions of Mudug and Galgudud, and bring together different Somali clans that have more in common than their related clans in remote areas such as Bosasso and Banadir.

A dream State would bring together what is left of Puntland after Mudug joins the Central State, Awdal, Khatumo, Makhir and a restructured Somaliland. Such a State could be the California of Somalia and play a leading role in Somali politics. It can also end the on-going conflict in these regions over resources and imaginary borders inherited from colonial periods.

As long as Somaliland clings to defunct and imaginary colonial borders and tries to force other clans to join its impractical separatist agenda by force, and as long as Puntland claims the Khatumo State regions by virtue of kinship, it will be difficult for Somalia to achieve stability and unity. Somaliland faces a new challenge in the recent Awdal uprising which has been in the making for a long time because of inequitable resource sharing and differences over Somali Unity.

Most of the Southern regions seem to be heading in the direction of a Federal System that cuts across clan lines . Only Puntland and Somaliland may oppose adopting such an approach. Unfortunately, the current leaders in these two self-declared enclaves may not have the leadership qualities of Sheikh Zayed, an un-educated Bedouin, who managed to unite the seven emirates with his vision and wisdom.

A North South Federal System

If Somaliland renounces its separatist stand, autonomous states including a restructured Somaliland State, Khatumo State including Makhir, and Awdal State can form a federal state that can collectively renegotiate the ACT of Union with a single federal state that incorporates all the autonomous states in the South. This approach can satisfy some of the demands of Somaliland for autonomy and address most of the grievances it has against the center. It can also assure the different non-separatist clans in the North of an equitable share of resources and political power.

Again, this approach faces a lot of hurdles given the intransigence of the current Somaliland leaders and the deep-rooted feelings of the Somaliland population of being wronged by the South. There is also the mistrust that Somaliland has created among the unionist clans in the North over the last two decades by their actions. These actions include the forced occupation of some cities in unionist regions, the murder of more than 300 nomads in the kalshale conflict, the current mobilization of large armies to invade Awdal, and the labeling of certain clans as minorities in talk shows. All these actions contributed heavily to the perpetuation of such mistrust.

However, all of this can be overcome with reconciliation and willingness to negotiate in good faith. If it were possible for whites and blacks in South Africa to let bygones be bygones, why would it be impossible to reconcile people who share the same language, color, religion and even ethnicity despite the wrong perception held by some as being the descendants of Arab Sheikhs who crossed the red sea from Arabia. Ironically, even those Sheikhs were also related. Okail and Ali were both the sons of Abu Talib after all.

Conclusion

If the Somali government in Mogadishu believes in Somali Unity it should come up with innovative solutions for the creation of States that can enhance Somali Unity and allay the fears and concerns of the people in these states. It should also refrain from entering into talks that can potentially undermine such unity. The recent Djibouti declaration may have been interpreted by some as being an agreement between equal and sovereign states. Such cloak and dagger negotiations that skirt around the core issue of resolving the obstacles facing Somali unity will only prolong the status quo.

The formation of States that cut across clan lines may help Somalia achieve the illusive unity that it has been seeking for more than two decades. With fine tuning, Somalia may finally end up with a solution to end its prolonged mistrust and clan Pickering to the satisfaction of all sides.

Our worst nightmare is for the current situation to continue with the country languishing under the mercy of foreign troops that may not have the best interest of Somalia at heart. Such an atmosphere will make it very difficult to get rid of the extremist elements among us and delay the withdrawal of foreign troops from Somalia. It is like being caught under a rock and a hard place.

The only way we can overcome this prolonged nightmare is to start talking to each other instead of talking over each other. Talks between the top leaders of the Federal Government and Somaliland should be transparent and should include all stakeholders. The fate of Somalia cannot be decided by Hassan Sheikh and Silanyo alone. The traditional leaders of Somalia must have a say in these talks. The educated elite must have a say in these talks. The political leaders of the various Federal States must have a say in these talks. Short of that, Somalis will interpret these talks as a conspiracy to undermine Somali Unity.

Ali H. Abdulla
Email:aliegeh@gmail.com