New York (WDN)- A New United Nations Security Council assessment warns that Al-Shabaab is changing the way it operates in Somalia, reducing the number of attacks around Mogadishu while concentrating more heavily on strategically important areas across the country.

The assessment, contained in the Monitoring Team’s 38th report, S/2026/651, published on August 10, 2026, covers developments through June 9. While the overall short-term threat posed by Al-Qaida and ISIS was assessed as broadly unchanged, the report identifies a notable shift in Al-Shabaab’s operational pattern.

Rather than relying on large numbers of attacks, the group appears to be moving toward fewer, more targeted and strategically selected operations, particularly in Hirshabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle and Galmudug.

The change comes amid intensified military pressure from Somali forces and their international partners. Several senior Al-Shabaab figures responsible for explosives and financial operations were reportedly killed between December 2025 and February 2026. However, the group’s leader, Ahmed Diriye, also known as Abu Ubaidah, remains active and is believed to be operating in southern Somalia.

The report also points to a decline in Al-Shabaab’s revenue from Mogadishu, which reportedly fell from an estimated $12–15 million per month to approximately $5–9 million. Despite the decline, the United Nations considers the group’s financial network resilient enough to sustain its operations.

Growing Links with Yemen

Perhaps the most significant warning in the report concerns Al-Shabaab’s reported links with militant networks in Yemen, including Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Houthis.

According to information provided by UN member states, Al-Shabaab members reportedly traveled by sea to Yemen and met AQAP operatives in Shabwah and Ma’rib to discuss operational experience and logistics. Some were subsequently reported to have had contact with Houthi representatives.

The report cites claims that between 150 and 400 Al-Shabaab fighters may have received training from the Houthis. The UN makes clear, however, that these figures are based on information provided by member states and do not represent independent verification by the United Nations of every reported training activity.

If sustained, such links could expose Al-Shabaab to new military expertise, logistical networks, technology and operational methods developed in Yemen.

The concern is particularly serious because Yemen has become an arena for advanced drone warfare, missile technology, electronic warfare and maritime operations. Any transfer of such capabilities across the Gulf of Aden could create new security risks for Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa.

The report also indicates that Al-Shabaab is attempting to strengthen its military capabilities, including longer-range and more accurate artillery and technology designed to disrupt drones.

The group’s reported interest in drone-jamming technology suggests that it is adapting to the growing use of drones and aerial surveillance by Somali forces and their partners. This points to an emerging technological contest: government forces are expanding their ability to monitor and strike Al-Shabaab from the air, while the militant group is seeking ways to evade, disrupt or neutralize those capabilities.

A More Resilient Threat

The UN assessment presents a picture that is more complicated than a simple decline in Al-Shabaab’s strength. The group has suffered significant leadership losses, its revenues in Mogadishu have declined, and its attacks around the capital have decreased. Yet it retains an operational leadership, a functioning financial system and the ability to conduct targeted attacks. More importantly, its reported external connections appear to be expanding.

The overall picture is therefore one of adaptation rather than defeat. Al-Shabaab may be deliberately reducing high-volume attacks while concentrating its resources on carefully selected targets and seeking new capabilities beyond Somalia’s borders.

The report suggests that measuring the group’s strength solely by the number of attacks in Mogadishu could therefore be misleading. The more important indicators may now be its intelligence networks, financial resilience, ability to select strategic targets, cross-border relationships and capacity to adapt to modern military technology.

For Somalia and its international partners, the warning is clear: a quieter Al-Shabaab is not necessarily a weaker Al-Shabaab.

WardheerNews