Tigray erupts again, Ethiopia teeters on the edge of a wider war as rebels advance, drones strike and regional powers are accused of intervening

ADDIS ABABA — (WDN) – Ethiopia’s northern war has erupted again, raising fears of a return to the devastating 2020–2022 conflict as federal forces battle the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and accuse Eritrea and Sudan of supporting armed groups fighting the government.

Heavy clashes have continued since Wednesday, with the TPLF claiming it is fighting a defensive war against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. The renewed conflict comes less than four years after the Pretoria peace agreement ended the previous war, which is estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of people. The renewed fighting is already spreading beyond Tigray.

The TPLF has reportedly seized airports and launched attacks into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. A humanitarian source said the Afar town of Erebti, near the Tigray border, fell to Tigrayan forces on Sunday following heavy artillery fire. The source said TPLF forces were advancing toward Afdeera, about 100 kilometres farther east.

The source estimated that at least 150,000 people had been displaced in Afar, although communications difficulties have made precise figures impossible to establish.

Addis Ababa Accuses Regional Powers

Ethiopia’s military chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Eritrea and Sudan of supporting forces fighting the federal army. Speaking through the army’s YouTube channel, Jula said the government was confronting armed groups allegedly organised and supported by external powers. He specifically accused Eritrea and Sudan, as well as Egypt and other outside actors, of providing backing.

The allegations have not been independently verified. The accusations nevertheless highlight the increasingly regional character of the conflict. Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the previous Tigray war but has since become increasingly hostile to the TPLF and remains deeply distrustful of developments in Addis Ababa and Tigray.

The TPLF, meanwhile, has joined a wider alliance of armed groups opposed to Abiy’s government, creating the possibility that the renewed conflict could extend beyond northern Ethiopia.

Tigrai TV Knocked Off Air

The conflict has also struck one of Tigray’s principal media outlets. Tigrai TV, based in Mekelle and closely associated with the Tigrayan authorities, was hit by a drone strike on Sunday, according to journalists and local sources.

A journalist at the station told AFP that staff heard a loud explosion and fled the building. Photographs showed damage to the facade, blackened walls and shattered windows.

The station, which reportedly employs about 400 people, was subsequently taken off air. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

The federal government had already announced on September 21 that Tigrai TV would be suspended indefinitely and ordered other media organisations not to broadcast its reports.

The attack therefore comes amid an increasingly restricted information environment in which independent verification of battlefield developments is becoming more difficult.

Tigray Cut Off from the Outside World

Communications across Tigray have also been severely disrupted since Friday, with major interruptions to telephone and internet services.

The blackout has revived memories of the communications and humanitarian blockade imposed during the 2020–2022 war, when electricity, banking and much-needed humanitarian assistance were severely disrupted. For civilians, the consequences extend beyond access to news.

Communications are essential for hospitals, businesses, financial services, humanitarian agencies and families attempting to locate relatives in conflict zones. The current disruption is also making it increasingly difficult for journalists and aid organisations to independently assess casualties and displacement.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed concern over the renewed fighting, particularly reports of drone attacks and civilian harm.

A Wider Battlefield

The TPLF’s expansion into Afar is strategically significant. Afar contains key routes connecting Ethiopia to Djibouti, through which much of Ethiopia’s international trade passes. Any sustained fighting along those corridors could disrupt fuel supplies, commercial transport and humanitarian operations.

The TPLF’s renewed military campaign also raises memories of the final phase of the previous war, when Tigrayan forces pushed south through Amhara toward Addis Ababa before being driven back.

The federal government now possesses substantial military capabilities, including drones and a large standing force, as well as support from regional partners. But military superiority does not necessarily guarantee a quick resolution.

A prolonged conflict could draw in neighbouring countries, deepen ethnic and political divisions and create another humanitarian catastrophe.

A Peace Agreement Under Strain

The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades after overthrowing the Derg regime in 1991. Its political dominance ended after Abiy became prime minister in 2018.

The relationship between Addis Ababa and the TPLF subsequently deteriorated into open war in November 2020. The conflict was marked by mass civilian suffering, displacement, alleged war crimes and widespread reports of sexual violence.

The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, brokered with African and international support, brought the major fighting to an end but left many issues unresolved.

The agreement was never fully implemented. Disputes over territorial control, the return of displaced people, disarmament and political authority remained unresolved, while sporadic clashes continued.

Rights organisations have also accused Tigrayan authorities of forced recruitment as tensions increased this year. The federal government, meanwhile, has conducted drone strikes in Tigray and reportedly increased troop deployments around the region.

The Risk of Another National War

The greatest danger is that the renewed fighting will no longer remain a Tigray conflict. With the TPLF operating beyond its traditional territory, armed groups elsewhere challenging Addis Ababa, and neighbouring states potentially becoming involved, Ethiopia risks sliding into a broader conflict involving multiple regional and ethnic actors.

The communications blackout makes the situation even more dangerous: the less information available, the harder it becomes to distinguish battlefield reality from competing propaganda and the harder it is for humanitarian organisations to respond.

Ethiopia has already experienced the enormous human cost of a war in Tigray. The renewed fighting demonstrates how little has been resolved beneath the surface of the Pretoria peace agreement.

The immediate priority is therefore not simply military advantage, but preventing another conflict from spreading across Ethiopia’s already fragile political landscape.

The question now is whether the parties can step back from another devastating war—or whether Ethiopia is once again heading toward a conflict whose consequences will reach far beyond Tigray.

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