By Abdikarim Haji Abdi Buh 

Oil and gas exploration is a time-intensive and capital-intensive endeavor. The journey from discovery to commercial production typically spans 15 to 20 years. A case in point is Uganda, where oil was declared commercially viable in January 2006, yet the earliest projections for actual production are set for 2026—a full two decades later. Similarly, Tanzania’s offshore natural gas fields, discovered between 1974 and 1982, only began limited commercial production for domestic use in 2005. These examples underscore the lengthy timelines required to bring hydrocarbons to market, even in politically stable environments with well-established regulatory frameworks.

If Somalia were to discover commercially viable oil and gas reserves today, its resources would not realistically reach global markets until at least 2040 to 2045. By that time, the global energy landscape will have undergone profound transformations, with a shift away from fossil fuels toward cleaner energy sources. Betting on oil and gas as Somalia’s economic savior is thus fraught with uncertainty.

The Global Oil and Gas Market: A Buyer’s Market, Not a Seller’s

At present, the world is experiencing an abundance of oil and gas supply, far exceeding demand. Major oil producers such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Russia dominate global production, with the U.S. now self-sufficient and an exporter. Russia, despite facing sanctions, remains a key supplier to multiple markets. Moreover, countries in the Middle East and Africa continue to expand their output, ensuring that the global market remains well-supplied.

With the rise of renewable energy and increasing pressure to curb carbon emissions, the appetite for new oil and gas investments has waned significantly. Large energy companies are reluctant to commit to high-risk, long-term fossil fuel projects, especially in unstable regions like Somalia. Instead, investment is increasingly shifting towards natural gas, which is viewed as a cleaner transition fuel, and renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydrogen. By the time Somalia’s hypothetical oil production reaches commercial viability, the world will likely have moved further toward sustainable energy solutions, diminishing the profitability of new oil projects.

The Political and Security Challenge in Somalia

A significant barrier to oil and gas development in Somalia is the country’s fragile governance and security situation. Unlike Uganda and Tanzania, which have functioning governments capable of regulating their energy sectors, Somalia remains mired in political instability, internal conflicts, and governance challenges. The lack of a strong federal government makes it difficult to enforce contracts, regulate the industry, or provide the necessary security for large-scale oil and gas operations.

The presence of Al-Shabaab, an insurgent group that has repeatedly targeted economic and infrastructure projects, further complicates the feasibility of energy exploration. No serious investor would be willing to commit billions of dollars to an industry that faces constant threats from armed groups, piracy, and political interference. The absence of clear legal frameworks and property rights further dampens investor confidence, making Somalia an extremely high-risk environment for any major oil and gas venture.

The Financial Reality: Who Really Benefits?

Even if a foreign investor were to take the extraordinary risk of developing Somalia’s oil and gas resources, the economic benefits for the Somali people would be minimal. Extractive industries such as oil and gas require heavy upfront investment, and the majority of revenues initially go toward recouping those costs. In the case of developing nations with weak regulatory structures, oil agreements often heavily favor multinational corporations rather than the host country.

Historically, resource-rich but politically unstable countries have struggled to translate oil wealth into broad economic development. Instead, revenues have frequently been siphoned off by political elites, exacerbating corruption and fueling further instability. Without strong governance mechanisms and transparent resource management, Somalia risks falling into the same trap, where oil wealth benefits a select few while leaving the general population in poverty.

Moreover, the concept of “trickle-down economics” in the oil and gas sector is misleading. Unlike industries such as manufacturing or technology, which create widespread employment opportunities, oil extraction is highly mechanized and employs relatively few people. The promise of job creation is often exaggerated, and the economic windfall that many anticipate rarely materializes at the grassroots level.

The Future of Energy: A World Moving Beyond Oil

One of the biggest challenges to Somalia’s oil and gas aspirations is the rapidly changing global energy landscape. The world is moving toward cleaner, more sustainable energy sources, with natural gas, electricity, and renewables taking center stage. Many countries have already committed to reducing their reliance on fossil fuels, with policies aimed at phasing out internal combustion engines and investing in green energy infrastructure.

By the time Somalia’s oil and gas resources could potentially enter the market, demand for crude oil will likely have decreased significantly. Renewable energy technologies will be more advanced and cost-effective, making fossil fuels a less attractive investment. Countries that fail to adapt to this transition risk being left with stranded assets—resources that no longer hold economic value.

A New Vision for Somalia’s Future

The idea that Somalia’s future prosperity hinges on oil and gas exploration is largely a false promise. The long gestation period for hydrocarbon projects, the lack of investor appetite, Somalia’s unstable political and security environment, and the shifting global energy landscape all point to the impracticality of banking on fossil fuels as an economic lifeline.

Instead of chasing the illusion of oil wealth, Somalia should focus on building a resilient and diversified economy. Investing in renewable energy, fisheries, agriculture, and human capital development will provide a more sustainable path to long-term prosperity. The world is moving beyond oil, and Somalia must look to the future rather than being trapped in outdated resource-extraction dreams.

Ultimately, the nation’s best hope lies not beneath the ground but in the ingenuity, resilience, and enterprise of its people.

Abdikarim Haji Abdi Buh 
Email: abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com

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