By Abdisalam Ali Farah (Biligsey)

History occasionally presents nations with defining moments—rare opportunities capable of changing the trajectory of generations. Some are created by diplomacy, others by political transitions, international circumstances, or moments of crisis. What distinguishes successful nations is often not the absence of difficult choices, but their ability to recognize such moments and place the long-term national interest above immediate political, personal, or factional advantage.

Somalia’s modern history can, in many respects, be understood as a history of missed opportunities. While historians may debate the significance of individual events and the choices available to Somali leaders at different moments, one recurring pattern is difficult to ignore: the repeated failure to place the common good above narrower interests.

The Missed Opportunity of 1946

One of the earliest examples frequently cited is the proposal associated with British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin in 1946, which envisioned bringing Somali-inhabited territories within a broader political framework under British administration during a transition toward eventual self-government.

Whether Bevin’s proposal could realistically have been implemented remains a matter of historical debate. Colonial rivalries, competing European interests, and the emerging international order after the Second World War created formidable obstacles.

Yet for many Somalis, the proposal represented something larger: an opportunity to pursue Somali territorial unity through diplomacy and international negotiation rather than through decades of confrontation.

The opportunity passed. What followed was a complicated struggle for independence and unification, eventually leaving Somali-inhabited territories divided among different political administrations.

Unity Pursued Through Conflict

After independence in 1960, the aspiration to unite Somali territories remained one of the most powerful ideas in Somali political life. The dream itself enjoyed broad popular support. The tragedy was that its pursuit increasingly became intertwined with military confrontation.

Somalia’s governments sought to advance national unity through a combination of diplomacy, political pressure, and military force. The resulting conflicts imposed enormous human and economic costs and placed increasing pressure on the country’s young institutions.

The pursuit of national unity through war ultimately produced a painful paradox: a project intended to strengthen the Somali nation contributed to the weakening of the state itself.

Military expenditures grew, political tensions intensified, and the country became increasingly vulnerable to internal divisions and external pressures.

The lesson was profound, but Somalia would continue to face moments in which short-term calculations overshadowed long-term national interests.

1991: The Collapse of the State

The collapse of the Somali state in 1991 was perhaps the most consequential missed opportunity of the modern era. Civil war devastated the country. State institutions disintegrated. Communities were displaced, livelihoods destroyed, and famine claimed countless lives.

The international community intervened in 1992 with the immediate objective of delivering humanitarian assistance and, eventually, helping Somalia rebuild a functioning national government.But the international intervention became entangled in Somalia’s internal armed conflict.

The confrontation between international forces and Somali factions culminated in violent battles that profoundly changed the international community’s approach to Somalia. The experience contributed to a growing reluctance among external actors to undertake another ambitious nation-building effort in the country.

For Somalia, the consequences were enormous. At precisely the moment when the country most desperately needed sustained international engagement, reconstruction became fragmented, political reconciliation remained elusive, and the country entered a prolonged period of institutional weakness. Another opportunity had been lost.

The Politics of 2022

More recently, Somalia’s 2022 presidential election offered another important test of political judgment. More than 30 candidates competed for the presidency before Parliament ultimately elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to a second term.

Supporters regarded his return as an opportunity to bring experience and political maturity to a country facing profound security, economic, and institutional challenges. Critics, however, argued that his previous record should have weighed more heavily in Parliament’s decision and raised concerns about political patronage, corruption, and the continuing influence of clan calculations in the electoral process.

Whatever one’s political assessment of Hassan Sheikh’s presidency, the 2022 election illustrates a broader challenge that has repeatedly confronted Somalia: how to reconcile immediate political interests with the long-term requirements of national development.

The question is not simply who wins an election. It is whether political institutions are capable of making decisions based on the interests of the country as a whole.

The Common Thread

The episodes are separated by decades, different political systems, and dramatically different circumstances. Yet they share a troubling common thread. Somalia has repeatedly struggled to place the common good above narrower loyalties.

At different times, personal ambition, factional competition, clan calculations, institutional weakness, and short-term political survival have influenced decisions that carried consequences far beyond the individuals who made them.

This does not mean that every historical setback was caused by Somali leaders alone. Colonialism, Cold War geopolitics, regional rivalries, foreign intervention, environmental disasters, and international decisions have all profoundly shaped Somalia’s trajectory. But acknowledging external forces should not prevent Somalis from examining their own choices.

Nations are not destroyed only by the decisions of their enemies. They can also be weakened by the inability of their own political and social elites to recognize when compromise, restraint, and collective interest are more valuable than victory for one faction.

The Cost of Missed Opportunities

The cost of these missed opportunities has been enormous. It has been measured in lives lost, generations displaced, institutions destroyed, investments abandoned, businesses closed, communities divided, and young people forced to seek opportunities elsewhere. But perhaps the greatest cost has been the erosion of public trust.

When citizens repeatedly witness institutions being used for narrow political interests, they lose faith in government. When political competition becomes a struggle for control of resources rather than a contest over ideas and national priorities, institutions become weaker. And when clan, faction, or personal loyalty consistently overrides national responsibility, the very idea of a shared Somali future becomes harder to sustain.

This is why the debate about Somalia’s future cannot be reduced to constitutional formulas, electoral systems, or individual political leaders. The deeper challenge is political culture.

A Different Future Is Still Possible

History does not have to dictate Somalia’s future. The country still possesses enormous human and economic potential: a young population, a strategic geographic location, extensive coastlines, livestock resources, fisheries, a growing private sector, and a diaspora with considerable skills and financial capacity.

But potential alone is not enough. Somalia needs institutions capable of thinking beyond electoral cycles and political personalities. It needs leaders willing to make decisions whose benefits may not be visible during their own tenure. It needs citizens and political actors prepared to recognize that national prosperity cannot be built by one clan, one party, one administration, or one faction acting alone.

Most importantly, Somalia needs a political culture in which national interest is not merely a slogan but a governing principle. No country is given unlimited opportunities. History occasionally opens a door, but the door does not remain open forever. Once a moment has passed, it may never return in the same form.

Somalia has already lost too many such moments. The challenge now is not to recover the past, but to recognize the next opportunity when it arrives—and to have the courage, wisdom, and national vision to seize it.

The central lesson is simple: a society that consistently sacrifices the common good for narrow interests eventually discovers that even those narrow interests cannot be protected.

Peace, prosperity, stability, and national dignity are collective achievements. They require institutions that serve the public, leaders who think beyond themselves, and citizens who understand that the future of the nation is ultimately a shared responsibility.

Somalia’s greatest opportunity may therefore not be a single political event or international initiative. It may be the opportunity to change the way the country makes decisions. And that opportunity is still within reach.

Abdisalam Ali Farah (Biligsey)
Email: biligsey2005@gmail.com