By Abdelkarim A. Haji Hassan

Somalia has entered a period of political uncertainty since the end of the transitional period. The country is confronting a deepening constitutional and governance impasse, driven by an increasingly entrenched confrontation between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the opposition. At the core of this deadlock are two unresolved and closely intertwined issues: 1) the framework for the national elections and 2) the unilateral constitutional changes being pushed forward without broad national consensus.

President Hassan Sheikh’s constitutional term ended on 15 May 2026, yet he continues to exercise presidential powers as though he has received a new mandate from the Somali people.  These actions have deepened political divisions and eroded trust between the Federal Government, opposition leaders, and Federal Member States. Repeated attempts to reach a political settlement have produced no meaningful progress.

President Hassan repeatedly proclaims his commitment to dialogue, consensus, and inclusive politics. Yet his actions consistently contradict those assurances. While publicly calling for negotiations, he has continued to unilaterally advance his political agenda without broad national agreement, reducing dialogue to a political exercise while pressing ahead with predetermined decisions.

The clearest example is the purported one-person, one-vote (1P1V) initiative. In principle, every Somali supports the right of citizens to elect their leaders directly. The problem is not the slogan; the problem is the way it is being implemented.

The current process is not about building an independent electoral system capable of delivering free and fair elections. It is about controlling the political outcome. The objective is to install loyal allies in the leadership of the Federal Member States, influence the results of future parliaments, and ultimately secure another presidential term through a legislature shaped by executive power rather than the genuine will of the Somali people.

South West State has already demonstrated how this strategy operates. A political ally of the President emerged through a heavily managed political process. The same blueprint is now unfolding in Galmudug, where plans are underway to position Libaan Ahmed (Shuluq) as the successor. These developments are not isolated events; they form part of a broader political strategy to consolidate power across Somalia’s federal institutions.

This exposes the fundamental contradiction at the center of the Hassan Sheikh’s narrative. How can an election be called “one person, one vote” when the winners are chosen before the people are allowed to vote?

Democracy is not measured by slogans, campaign banners, or political speeches. It is measured by whether elections are genuinely competitive, independently administered, transparent, and accepted by both winners and losers. Without those conditions, “one person, one vote” becomes nothing more than a political label attached to a predetermined outcome.

The Somali public is no longer persuaded by rhetoric alone. People increasingly recognize that the current 1P1V process is being used to manufacture political legitimacy rather than strengthen democratic institutions. Its planned to produce a Parliament selected through executive influence instead of one elected through an open, credible, and nationally accepted process.

Somalia has paid an enormous price for constitutional crises, disputed elections, and political exclusion. The country cannot afford to repeat those mistakes. No president whose constitutional mandate has expired should attempt to reshape the Constitution, redesign the electoral system, or determine the country’s political future without a broad national agreement.

The way out of the current crisis is neither complicated nor controversial. Somalia needs an inclusive political settlement that restores constitutional legitimacy, respects the federal system, and produces a genuinely independent electoral framework accepted by all major political stakeholders and Somali people.

Anything short of that risks pushing the country into a deeper political confrontation, undermining national unity, and jeopardizing the democratic progress that Somalis have struggled for decades to achieve.

Abdelkarim A Haji Hassan
Email: abdelkarimhass@gmail.com