By Abdullahi A. Nor
Somalia stands on a knife-edge. Political tensions are at a peak, institutional trust is fraying, and the country faces challenges that could determine its survival as a unified state. What began under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in May 2022 as a promise of stability and reform has, according to critics, devolved into a period marked by policy missteps, corruption and nepotism with far-reaching consequences.
A Troubled Security Record
From day one, President Hassan launched an aggressive campaign against Al-Shabaab. Intended to consolidate government control over southern regions, the operation reportedly dismantled the professional army assembled by his predecessor, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, and led to the loss of five districts and eighteen villages previously under government control. In a country where Al-Shabaab governs large swaths of southern Somalia, any political weakness immediately creates openings for territorial expansion.
Unlike other African nations facing political crises, Somalia contends with a highly organized insurgency capable of exploiting executive mismanagement and federal fragmentation. The stakes are existential: a fractured federal government emboldens the insurgents and risks undoing decades of international investment in state-building, security, and humanitarian aid.
Allegations of Corruption and Nepotism
Critics argue that mismanagement extended beyond the battlefield. Reports allege that Mogadishu’s public land was sold without due process, bypassing the Treasury and displacing approximately 300,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs). Observers note that these deals enriched the president and his inner circle, raising alarm over transparency and accountability.
Appointments across the civil service—including ambassadors—have reportedly favored members of the president’s family and clan, fueling accusations of nepotism and undermining institutional credibility. This has created widespread concern among civil servants, opposition figures, and federal member states about the concentration of power in a single-family network, which risks alienating both regional and international partners.
A Constitutional Crisis in the Making
President Hassan’s unilateral constitutional amendments have drawn widespread criticism. Somalia’s political history demonstrates the fragility of its federal and constitutional system: in 2021, an attempted extension of federal mandates sparked a severe crisis, drawing condemnation from federal member states, civil society, and international partners. Today, critics argue that continued constitutional tinkering without stakeholder engagement risks repeating those mistakes, threatening Somalia’s democratic institutions and national cohesion.
In response to international pressure, reconciliation talks were scheduled for 1 February 2026. Yet, shortly after agreeing to dialogue, the president reportedly began further amendments, casting doubt on the administration’s willingness to address opposition concerns substantively. Analysts worry this pattern of unilateral decision-making undermines confidence in governance and could destabilize the delicate federal balance, particularly in FMS historically skeptical of central authority.
Comparisons Across Africa
Somalia is not alone in facing executive overreach. Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni extended his tenure by altering term limits, fueling protests and political polarization. Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame changed constitutional rules to remain in power for decades, drawing international criticism despite impressive economic growth. Conversely, leaders like Ghana’s John Mahama and Senegal’s Macky Sall respected constitutional term limits, demonstrating that adherence to legal frameworks strengthens stability and democratic legitimacy.
Yet Somalia’s situation is uniquely precarious. Where other African nations may face political tension or corruption, Somalia’s instability intersects with an active insurgency. Al-Shabaab not only threatens lives but also controls strategic towns, roads, and access to resources. Any fracture at the top of government risks emboldening the insurgents and undermining national sovereignty in ways that few other countries experience.
The Risk of Fragmentation
The unresolved status of Somaliland and the alienation of key federal member states – Jubaland and Puntland – fuel public anxiety over the potential disintegration of the country. Growing voices within civil society call for decisive accountability measures: barring President Hassan from contesting the next election, freezing his and his associates’ assets, and pursuing formal legal action to restore public confidence and prevent further executive overreach. Without concrete steps, critics argue, Somalia could face a political vacuum that further empowers Al-Shabaab and other destabilizing actors.
Somalia’s fragility is unique. The interplay of insurgency, factional politics, and institutional weakness creates a high-stakes environment: any misstep risks not just political instability but territorial loss and humanitarian catastrophe. International observers warn that continued executive overreach and federal fragmentation could result in the loss of critical FM States, the resurgence of Al-Shabaab in former government-controlled districts, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands more civilians.
A Test for Institutions and Leadership
With the May 2026 elections approaching, Somalia faces a crucial test. Can its institutions withstand internal pressure, preserve fragile federal bonds, and maintain control over territories threatened by Al-Shabaab? The country’s trajectory depends on leadership that prioritizes national cohesion over personal enrichment, constitutional adherence over unilateral authority, and territorial integrity over political expediency.
The decisions made in the coming months will reverberate far beyond Mogadishu. Somalia’s survival as a unified state—and its capacity to consolidate peace and development—depends on whether it can navigate this crossroads without succumbing to political fragmentation or insurgent opportunism. For a nation still scarred by decades of conflict, the cost of failure could be catastrophic.
Abdullahi A. Nor
Email: abdulahinor231@gmail.com
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