By Wilo Abdulle Osman
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, in his second term as Somalia’s president, has systematically curtailed the political maneuvering space for leaders from the Federal Member States (FMS)—Puntland and Jubaland. While coercing leaders from Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and South West into his Justice and Solidarity Party orbit, he faces staunch opposition from Puntland’s President Said Abdullahi Deni and Jubaland’s President Ahmed Madobe, who reject his centralizing encroachments and defend their autonomy against his partisan pressures.
Through unilateral power consolidation—now reduced to desperate, haphazard wagers rather than coherent strategy, including contentious constitutional amendments and the destabilization of the federal parliament to consolidate control—Mohamud has sidelined opposition voices and erected a centralized edifice that imperils the fragile federal compact, fueling escalating tensions, eroding public trust, and heightening risks of instability ahead of the 2026 elections.
Mechanisms of Centralization
Mohamud’s regime prioritizes loyalty over inclusion, pressuring Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and South West leaders to align with his party—where Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre and most cabinet members now reside—fostering a de facto one-party state that explicitly curtails their independent agency. The National Consultative Council (NCC) has been rendered impotent, systematically excluding dissenting FMS voices, particularly from Puntland and Jubaland, from pivotal decisions on governance and security.
Concurrently, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is ramming through reforms like extending the presidential term to five years without FMS consensus—a move denounced as unconstitutional by Puntland, Jubaland, and opposition umbrella – Samtabixinta, who view it as a direct assault on Somalia’s federal system. The “one-person, one-vote” electoral rollout proceeds unilaterally, devoid of institutional readiness or inclusive dialogue, further alienating these holdout states and undermining federalism’s foundational bargain.
Fallout for FMS Political Actors
FMS leaders now operate in a straitjacket, bereft of genuine autonomy—though Puntland and Jubaland leaders vocally oppose Mohamud’s curtailment of their peers, warning of “manipulative centralization” and calling for national dialogue to preserve federal balance. FGS meddling in Puntland’s local elections and the exclusionary design of the National Security Architecture (NSArch) erode regional control over security and economic levers, hallmarks of devolution that these states fiercely defend.
This trajectory, amplified by the deliberate destabilization of the federal parliament through partisan maneuvering and institutional erosion under HSM’s flailing improvisation, evokes authoritarian playbooks from Djibouti to Turkey, where dissent is neutralized via coercion and capture.
Neglect of Climate Crisis and Humanitarian Peril
Compounding these political failures, the FGS under Mohamud has shown gross negligence toward Somalia’s escalating climate crisis—marked by recurrent droughts, floods, and crop failures—while failing to devise any coherent plan for delivering essential services to vulnerable populations now at high risk of mass starvation. Millions face acute food insecurity amid failed harvests and livestock losses, yet centralized resource hoarding prioritizes political patronage over humanitarian relief, leaving FMS regions to fend for themselves without federal support or coordination.
Broader Geopolitical and Domestic Perils
This reckless gamble—HSM playing a loser’s game with no strategic depth, just desperate rolls of the dice—has fractured FGS-FMS relations, exacerbated by Puntland and Jubaland’s principled opposition, amplified clan fault lines, and stymied unified fronts against al-Shabaab’s resurgence. HSM’s negligence in safeguarding Somalia’s sovereignty stands out as a profound failure, with shocking evidence of Somaliland’s creeping international recognition—through the Ethiopia MoU for Red Sea access and tacit UAE backing—threatening to fracture the nation’s territorial integrity irreparably.
This dangerous trajectory risks Somalia’s existence as a unified state, as Hargeisa’s de facto statehood gains legitimacy while Mogadishu’s infighting distracts from diplomatic countermeasures. Exacerbating this, HSM has ignored the perilous impacts of Gulf of Aden and Red Sea disruptions: Houthi attacks and shipping chokepoints have slashed remittances, spiked import costs for food and fuel, and empowered pirates, plunging coastal economies into chaos and amplifying famine risks without a maritime defense or economic contingency plan. As 2026 looms, the specter of political fragmentation portends violence unless Mohamud pivots to genuine dialogue via an expanded NCC that respects these states’ resistance. Restoring consensus-driven federalism is imperative to reclaim political agency, rebuild legitimacy, and avert Somalia’s descent into renewed chaos.
Wilo Abdulle Osman
Email: Wilo.abdulle@gmail.com
References:
Horn Observer: OP-ED: Three Years On – How Hassan Sheikh Betrayed Somalia’s Fragile Federalismhornobserver
The Somali Digest: Hassan Sheikh and His Credibility on Elections and Federalismthesomalidigest
Mustaqbal Media: Puntland and Jubaland Leaders Warn of Centralization Amid Tensionsmustaqbalmedia
CES Briefing: Somalia’s Political Impasse: Reshaping the NCCcessomalia
Garowe Online: Somalia on the Brink of Fragmentation Under Hassan Sheikhgaroweonline
Atlas Institute: Red Sea Shipping Crisis 2024-2025atlasinstitute
Puntland Post: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Undermines Sovereigntypuntlandpost
Kulu Media: Somalia Cuts UAE Ties 2026kulu-media
Wardheer News: Did HSM Abdicate Constitutional Duty?wardheernews
Burao Post: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Failed Bid to Block Somaliland’s Recognitionburaopost.substack