By Mohamed Ali Hashi

A Moment of Hope That Now Feels Fragile

Not very recently, Las Anod had a sense of momentum. This seemed to many that a new era has finally dawned on a long-neglected country. It was not just a political milestone when Abdikadir Ahmed, who is popularly known as “Firdiiye”, was elected the president of the newly recognized Northeastern State of Somalia.

It was a declaration of dignity to most residents since it demonstrated that their voices were heard and that they could no longer imagine self-governance as a far-fetched dream.

That time is now very vulnerable.

From Optimism to Unease

Months have gone by and the initial euphoria has been substituted by discomfort. A question that is increasingly becoming more and more vocal every day is being asked in the towns, villages, and displacement camps: Who is guiding us through this crisis?

Since his presidency, President Ahmed has been characterized by the fact that his role has seen him spend much time outside the state, in Mogadishu and beyond. Although the federal government is supposed to be involved in the model of any new regional administration and its budgetary support, the frequency and the duration of such absences have hardly met any of these critical expectations. What used to carry the semblance of sound strategic diplomacy, is increasingly becoming out of touch with daily events taking place back home.

A Crisis That Is Not Just Perception

It is not just a perception issue. The state of Northeastern is experiencing one of the worst droughts in recent times. The land is arid, water supply has collapsed, and grass which was meant to nourish herds is no more. The number of livestock that dies is increasing at a very high rate and threatening families that wholly rely on animals as their source of their livelihood. To the pastoral communities, drought does not pose a nuisance, it is a threat to their very existence.

Recent humanitarian assessments (2025), as reported by FAO and UNHCR detail a bleak situation in Northeastern State. The scarcity of rain in Sool and Sanaag regions has displaced thousands of people. Complete families are moving around and crossing into Ethiopia in search of water, pastures or help. Camps of dislocation are being increased with minimal sanitation, healthcare and shelter. There is increasing food insecurity and the threat of famine has ceased to be speculative. It is a fear that is uttered by parents as they struggle to keep their children alive and safe.

Leadership in a Time of Emergency

Leadership, in such an instance matters a lot. There are no miracles people expect but direction, coordination and honesty. The reaction of the local government has, however, been very subdued to say, the least. There has not been a publicly announced emergency plan. No regular external updates as to what actions are being implemented. No clear movement of local organizations to fight the crisis directly.

The lack of a vivid response leaves an unsafe space. Where there is silence of official leadership, rumors take its place. Communities lose trust. Desperation grows.

The most common question that many residents ask themselves is what practical advantages have been accrued because of the extended stay by the president in the capital. Up to now, no emergency federal funding or regular budget support for Northeastern State has been announced to provide relief in the drought, no sufficient budgetary allocation has been made to aid the populations rendered homeless and no strategic partnership has been announced to help deal with the humanitarian catastrophe that is unfolding. These trips seem to be not much better than photographs and promises to people who are fighting to survive.

Such disparity between negotiations and outcomes contributes to a feeling of abandonment. People are asking themselves how their leader can be negotiating away and their wells are dry at home. Every lost chance is an expensive one, not in terms of political capital, but in terms of life derailed and livelihood ruined.

Internal Politics Overshadowing Public Survival

To make matters worse, Northeastern State has a weak and developing institutions. Political wrangles have established themselves instead of unity and concentration. The issue of water access and food distribution and economic recovery should not be excluded when the conversation is dominated by the struggle of sharing and influencing the cabinet. The calculations of power, the long-term planning is overshadowed by short-term maneuvering, policy debates.

Another factor contributing to ongoing instability is the growing influence of former senior federal security officials and politicians who, having lost formal positions in Mogadishu, continue to exert disproportionate authority, and interestingly present themselves like “modern-day oracles”, and as indispensable political guides, shaping important decisions from behind the scenes.

A number of these individuals are said to enjoy close access to the presidency and occupy positions within the inner circle. Rather than constructively supporting state-building efforts, their interventions have at times proven counterproductive. Motivated by material interest or narrow interests, they have been accused of leveraging clan affiliations and familial ties with the “Garaads”—the respected traditional leadership—to advance parallel agendas that complicate governance in an already fragile political environment.

Such dynamics risk weakening emerging institutions, blurring lines of accountability, and diverting attention away from the urgent social and economic needs of the population at a moment when coherent leadership and institutional discipline are most needed

To the common folks, the elite wrangles have no connection to the reality. A mother who travels miles to get water is not very patient over political squabbles. To a herder whose whole flock has been lost, cabinet appointments or reshuffles will not help. The disparity between the ruling classes and people who suffer is increasing by the day. It is very tragic that Northeastern State itself was born into joint struggle and sacrifice. Misery was faced by people so as to have a future that they make themselves, one that was more attuned to their own community. Statehood was not supposed to be even distant government. It was intended to signify leaders who are listening, acting and sharing the burdens of their constituents.

A Defining Moment for Leadership

That is why the present time is so crucial. Northeastern leaders are at a crossroads that will leave their mark in history. Leadership does not require symbolism or inauguration fanfare anymore, but visibility and commitment. It involves being on the ground in drought-stricken regions, getting in touch with the people, and demonstrating that the highest office of the state is connected with the facts on the street.

Action plans are desperately required. Drought response should be initiated in a coordinated way with the emphasis being put on water trucking, borehole rehabilitation, and livestock that survived. The displaced families require protection, food and basic services to be provided in a transparent and efficient manner. The young generation who appear disgruntled and isolated by unemployment require an opportunity – even the establishment of trivial job programs and vocational training schools can make their lives dignified and bright.

It is also critical to repair the lost faith in governance. It is translating to internal discipline, keeping the spoilers down to a bare minimum, and making competence the key factor rather than the clan counts. It implies open communication to the people regarding challenges, resources and limits. Confidence is lost when there is silence; it can be restored through honesty even in adversity.

A man of Las Anod has just echoed the sentiments uttered by many: –We raised our flag, but empty bellies are not fed with images. There is neither cynicism nor disbelief in statehood in his words. They serve as a reminder of the fact that political success merely counts as long as it helps make life better.

A Choice That Will Shape the Future

The Northeastern State can still take another path. The hope which has been filling Las Anod has not lost its place at once but is withering away under the pressure of drought and uncertainty. Its survival depends to a great extent on the decisions of leadership in the present.

Northeastern state leadership must begin by recognizing that resilience already exists within its people who are well-known for their enormous pride, nationalism and independence. The task ahead is to utilize these treasured qualities, organize, protect, and amplify it through deliberate policy choices. For too long, governance has been shaped around external lifelines—federal budget transfers, emergency humanitarian appeals, and multilateral financing—rather than around the sustainable mobilization of local capacity. While such support can be necessary in moments of crisis, it should not substitute for long-term economic self-reliance.

A more resilient model would prioritize the strategic use of local resources and the modernization of domestic revenue collection. The region is endowed with significant untapped potential: extensive rangelands suitable for livestock value chains, cross-border trade corridors, renewable energy prospects, and a population with deep knowledge of climate adaptation and survival in arid conditions. These assets remain underutilized not because they are insufficient, but because leadership has to be present on the deck yet to translate them into a coherent vision and action.

Moreover, a smart equitable tax collection can serve as the backbone of this shift. Rather than burdening already vulnerable households, the focus should be on widening the tax base through formalization of trade, modest levies on large commercial operators, transparent livestock market fees, and transit taxation, and improved customs administration at key entry points and drastically, cutting down on travel expenditure. When taxation is transparent, fair, predictable, and visibly reinvested into public goods—water infrastructure, veterinary services, drought mitigation, and rural roads—it builds both state revenue and public trust.

Equally important is investing in drought resilience using locally generated funds. Small-scale water harvesting systems, rehabilitation of boreholes, rangeland management programs, and support for pastoral cooperatives are cost-effective measures that reduce dependence on emergency aid. These interventions align with indigenous coping mechanisms that communities have practiced for generations, now requiring state coordination rather than external substitution.

Reducing reliance on federal and international assistance does not mean rejecting partnership; it means redefining it. External funding should complement locally driven priorities, not dictate them. A leadership confident in its own revenue streams and resource base is better positioned to negotiate, plan, and protect its citizens from the recurring cycles of drought, displacement, and poverty.

Ultimately, resilience is not imported. It is cultivated through accountable leadership that chooses to invest in its people’s productivity rather than manage their vulnerability. The means exist within the state; what remains is the political will to shift from dependency to durability.

However, in case those in authority are remote physically and politically, the prospect of self-rule will evaporate in frustration. However, when leadership stays home with their constituents and operates with a sense of urgency, this crisis will be a turning point and not a breaking point.

It is not what people remarked, in inauguration ceremonies, in far-off halls, 5-star hotels,  or cushy government offices in Mogadishu and in foreign countries that will be remembered in history, but whether people on the ground were supported, seen and covered when it mattered most.

Mohamed Ali Hashi
Email: xmohashi@gmail.com

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Mohamed is a former United Nations Senior Staff, UN Peace Keeping Operations, and Senior International Consultant