Baidoa (WDN) — The battle for Baidoa may be entering a decisive new phase, with forces loyal to former South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen reportedly reinforcing their positions around the regional capital and preparing for another attempt to penetrate the city.

Images circulating on social media by supporters of Laftagareen show what they describe as newly arrived fighters gathering on the outskirts of Baidoa. If the reports are accurate, the arrival represents a significant reinforcement of an armed movement that has repeatedly sought to challenge the authorities currently controlling the city.

According to sources familiar with the developments, the new fighters have arrived in the Bay region to join Laftagareen-aligned forces already operating in rural areas surrounding Baidoa. Their stated objective is to strengthen the existing force and create the conditions for a renewed offensive aimed at reclaiming the city.

The reported contingent is said to be led by a commander identified as Ali Mohamed Salad. Local sources claim that the fighters were welcomed by senior figures associated with Laftagareen’s political and military network, including former spokesman Ugaas Hassan Abdi Mohamed.

The fighters reportedly originated from Berdale district before moving toward areas where Laftagareen’s forces have established positions. Their arrival is significant because it suggests that the confrontation over Baidoa is no longer a fading political dispute but an increasingly organized struggle over territorial control.

A Battle That Has Refused to Disappear

Laftagareen-aligned forces have previously attempted to approach or enter Baidoa, but those efforts have failed to dislodge government-aligned forces from the city. The latest reinforcement, however, raises the possibility that the balance of forces around the regional capital could gradually change.

For months, the political crisis surrounding South West State has increasingly spilled into the security arena. What began as a dispute over political legitimacy, leadership and federal authority has developed into an armed confrontation in which competing sides are attempting to establish facts on the ground.

The strategy of Laftagareen’s supporters appears increasingly focused on surrounding the political center of South West State rather than attempting an immediate frontal assault.

By maintaining fighters in the countryside, recruiting additional personnel and gradually strengthening positions around Baidoa, the former president’s supporters could be seeking to isolate the city and stretch the forces defending it.

If that strategy continues, the question may no longer be whether Laftagareen’s forces can reach Baidoa—they have already demonstrated their ability to operate in its vicinity—but whether the authorities inside the city can sustain control indefinitely.

The Road to Baidoa

The reported arrival of fighters from Berdale adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile security environment.

Berdale is strategically important because of its location within Bay region and its connection to areas surrounding Baidoa. The movement of armed personnel from the district toward Laftagareen’s positions could provide the latter with additional manpower and local networks as his forces attempt to increase pressure on the regional capital.

For Laftagareen’s supporters, the objective is straightforward: build sufficient military strength to make another attempt at entering Baidoa possible.

For the authorities controlling the city, the development represents a serious warning that the conflict may be entering a more dangerous phase. The central question now confronting South West State is whether the repeated pressure from Laftagareen-aligned forces will eventually translate into a successful takeover.

There is no independent confirmation that the newly reported fighters are preparing for an immediate assault, nor is there reliable information about their exact numbers, equipment or current positions. Claims circulating online should therefore be treated cautiously. But the broader trend is difficult to ignore.

New fighters are reportedly arriving. Existing forces remain positioned outside the city. Previous attempts to penetrate Baidoa have demonstrated that the opposition retains the capacity to mount military operations. And the political dispute that produced the confrontation remains unresolved.

Taken together, these developments create the possibility of a prolonged campaign in which control of Baidoa could ultimately be determined not in political negotiations, but on the battlefield.

If Laftagareen’s forces succeed in continuously expanding their manpower and consolidating positions around the city, the pressure on Baidoa’s defenders will inevitably increase. The former president’s supporters clearly believe that time is on their side.

Their calculation appears to be that every new fighter who joins the campaign, every additional position established outside the city and every failure by the authorities to resolve the underlying political crisis brings them one step closer to the ultimate objective: returning Laftagareen to power in Baidoa.

Whether that ambition becomes reality remains uncertain. But one thing is increasingly clear: the struggle for Baidoa is far from over, and the possibility that the city could eventually fall under the control of forces loyal to Laftagareen can no longer be dismissed.

WardheerNews