Mogadisho (WDN) — President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud has reportedly begun openly backing Hirshabelle President Ali Gudlawe for another term as political maneuvering intensifies ahead of the regional leadership contest.

The President received a group of politicians from the Guudlaawe’s clan (Harti-Abgaal) community in Mogadishu, with discussions focusing on the forthcoming selection of Hirshabelle’s leadership.

Several of those who attended are reportedly interested in competing for the presidency. According to sources familiar with the meeting, however, Hassan made clear that Villa Somalia is backing Ali Gudlawe and intends to support his candidacy through the ruling Justice and Stability Party (JSP).

The President reportedly urged the politicians to abandon their ambitions and support Gudlawe, while indicating that Villa Somalia will formally declare its position in the coming days.

Hassan is also expected to meet with the Ugaas of the Hawadle clan and other political figures to reiterate his support for Gudlawe.

The Question Behind the Campaign

The political maneuvering in Hirshabelle raises a more fundamental question: under what rules is this election supposed to take place?

Somalia’s two most important electoral disputes remain unresolved—the contested constitutional amendments and the absence of a broadly accepted national election modality.

Major opposition forces and several federal member states continue to challenge the constitutional process, while disagreement persists over who should determine the country’s electoral framework and how future elections should be conducted.

Nevertheless, the campaigning for a preferred regional candidate risks putting the political outcome ahead of the rules governing the process.

The Federal Government also maintains that the constitutional amendments are legally valid. Its opponents argue that the process lacked sufficient political consensus and did not adequately protect the federal political order.

Whatever the competing interpretations, the disagreement remains politically unresolved. That matters because elections conducted under a constitutional framework rejected by major stakeholders could inherit the same legitimacy problem.

Constitutional reform cannot provide a stable foundation for elections if the political actors expected to participate in those elections do not accept how the reform was adopted.

The Risk of a One-Sided Election

The same concern applies to the electoral modality. If the Federal Government proceeds without reaching agreement with opposition groups and federal member states, an election may be technically organized but politically contested from the outset.

That could produce a familiar Somali cycle: one side declares victory, the other rejects the process, and the election becomes another source of political confrontation rather than a mechanism for resolving it.

The reported effort to secure support for Gudlawe therefore comes at a sensitive moment. The immediate political question may be who leads Hirshabelle, but the larger issue is whether Somalia’s leaders can first agree on the rules under which political power is transferred.

Consensus Before Candidates

The reported effort to secure support for Gudlawe comes at a sensitive moment. The immediate question may be who leads Hirshabelle, but the larger issue is whether Somalia’s leaders have first agreed on the rules governing political power.

Somalia does not need another election whose legitimacy is disputed before the first ballot is cast. The constitutional framework and electoral modality must be settled through broad political consensus before the country moves to determine who wins.

President Hassan may have a preferred candidate, but no candidate can resolve a national crisis rooted in disputed rules. The real test is whether Somalia can agree on the rules that make an election—and its winner—legitimate.