By Ali Haji Warsame

The breakdown of the post Cold War world order has accelerated in recent years, especially after the United States, under President Trump, withdrew from more than sixty international agreements and organizations, including UNESCO, the WHO, and the Paris Climate Accord. According to SBS News, the US exited the UN climate agreement and 66 entities deemed “contrary” to US interests, including 31 UN-affiliated organizations and 35 non-UN groups. This retreat from multilateralism has sent shockwaves around the globe, dismantling the fragile balance of the multipolar system and ushering in a new era where power politics increasingly resemble the “law of the mighty and power”. 

Stephen Miller, a senior advisor to Trump, told CNN’s Jake Tapper that global politics are now driven by strength, force, and power, rather than ideals. He characterized this shift as part of a “new world order” in which America asserts dominance, justifying U.S. military threats and interventions as necessary to protect its strategic interests. His comments came in response to the recent decision by the US President to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and seize the country’s oil reserves. This is indeed a significant precedent and a major shift in global politics, which I did not expect to witness in my lifetime.

In this environment, fragile states like Somalia are disproportionately affected, as they lack the institutional resilience to withstand external shocks and unilateral pressure. The erosion of collective security frameworks has left countries like Somalia exposed to external manipulation and internal collapse, creating a dangerous convergence of vulnerabilities that threaten not only domestic stability but also regional and global security.

Somalia’s fragility is evident across many areas. Economically, the country has one of the highest unemployment rates worldwide, estimated at nearly 67 percent, with youth making up over 70-75 percent of the population, with the exact figure depending on the source and methodology. Somalia has one of the youngest populations globally, with a median age of 18 years. Around 75% of the population is under 30. This demographic “youth bulge”, as it is often called, presents both a challenge, such as high unemployment and potential instability, which I describe as a “time bomb”, and an opportunity in the form of a large workforce if the right jobs are created.

This demographic imbalance is not just a statistic but a structural crisis: a generation without meaningful job opportunities is becoming increasingly vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups, migration pressures, and cycles of poverty. The withdrawal of U.S. aid programs, including USAID, has created critical gaps in health, education, and governance. For decades, international donors supported Somalia’s fragile institutions, but the reduction of this aid has left voids that domestic governance has struggled to fill. The suspension of USAID funding in early 2025 triggered immediate disruptions across humanitarian and development programs in Somalia, halting new obligations and scaling back or closing services within days.

Reported losses in food security, social services, and research programs. On another matter, restrictions on remittances, such as excise taxes on transactions, pose a serious threat to one of Somalia’s most dependable sources of survival. Somali diaspora communities remit approximately $1.7 billion in remittances each year, reaching nearly forty percent of all households and accounting for between 17 and 20 percent of the national GDP. Reducing these fund flows could shrink Somalia’s economy by roughly one-fifth, worsening and exacerbating poverty and fueling instability. In a country where the formal banking system remains underdeveloped, remittances are not just financial transfers, they are essential and remain the backbone of household survival and community resilience.

These funds support education, healthcare, and small businesses, and any disruption to them would have far-reaching consequences on every sector of Somali society. The new remittance tax, known as the federal excise tax that applies to certain outbound money transfers from the United States, is imposed by the US Treasury as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4, 2025. The tax will go into effect on January 1, 2026. This tax on remittances requires senders to pay 1% of the total amount transferred when using cash, money orders, cashier’s checks, or similar physical instruments to send money abroad.

The excise tax is collected by remittance transfer providers, such as banks, wire transfer services, and money transfer apps, and is submitted quarterly to the U.S. Treasury. This initiative is intended to control the outflow of cash from the U.S., and it will directly affect thousands of Somalis who send stipends and support to needy families back home. Unlike earlier versions of the tax bill, which focused only on non-citizens, the final law applies to everyone, including American citizens, green card holders, and non-citizens residing in or sending from the U.S., and this will have grave consequences for the livelihoods of most households in Somalia.

In addition, the humanitarian situation exacerbates these economic challenges. Poor rainfall in 2025 left 4.5 million Somalis food insecure, highlighting the country’s acute and extreme vulnerability to climate shocks. Somalia consistently ranks among the most climate-vulnerable countries, with recurring droughts and floods that undermine agricultural productivity and displace rural populations. Climate change has turned what were once seasonal hardships into chronic crises, eroding traditional coping mechanisms and forcing communities into a state of perpetual emergency.

The intersection of environmental stress and weak governance has created a vicious cycle in Somalia. Droughts lead to displacement, which in turn fuels urban overcrowding, ultimately intensifying political unrest and instability. Humanitarian agencies warn that without sustained international support, Somalia risks sliding into famine conditions similar to those of the early 1990s, when state collapse and food insecurity converged catastrophically. The current crisis is further aggravated by the destruction of pastoral livelihoods, which once sustained large segments of the population.

As herders lose their livestock to drought, they are forced to migrate to urban centers, where unemployment and poverty are already widespread. This migration creates new social tensions and additional pressures on fragile infrastructure.

Amid this situation, Somalia’s political landscape is deeply divided and troubled. The 2026 elections are complicated by disputes over how to conduct the polls, necessary constitutional reforms, and the strained relationship between the federal government and the federal member states. Ongoing rifts between Mogadishu and regional administrations have paralyzed decision-making. At the same time, widespread corruption and nepotism have left Somalia entrenched at the bottom of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, alongside South Sudan. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration is facing mounting criticism for centralizing power and failing to foster consensus with opposition groups, raising concerns about a legitimacy crisis if the elections occur without broad agreement.

The absence of constructive dialogue among political leaders has polarized the country, damaging the credibility of electoral institutions and threatening to delegitimize the election results even before votes are cast. In fragile states, elections are not just procedural tasks; they are critical tests of national unity. Somalia’s failure to resolve disputes over the timing and modalities of elections risks deepening divisions within the country. Additionally, the absence of a transparent electoral framework erodes public trust, leading many citizens to worry that elites will manipulate the process to consolidate their power rather than reflect the will of the people.

Geopolitical interference significantly complicates Somalia’s trajectory. Israel’s recognition of the Northwest regions of Somalia’s (aka Somaliland) unilateral secession undermines Somalia’s territorial integrity, even though the United Nations, African Union, Arab League, and Organization of Islamic Cooperation continue to support Somali unity. This recognition is not merely an isolated diplomatic gesture but a strategic move with profound implications for the Horn of Africa. Somalia’s strategic location along the Horn of Africa and Arabian Sea, adjacent to the Red Sea, makes instability in the country a concern for both the region and the world. Fragmentation within Somalia could destabilize maritime security, trade routes, and regional alliances.  

The Horn of Africa has historically been a stage for geopolitical competition, with countries from the Gulf, Turkey, China, and Western powers competing for influence. The internal divisions within Somalia create opportunities for external actors to exploit these disputes, turning local issues into regional conflicts. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland could encourage other actors to pursue similar unilateral actions, which would further weaken or undermine Somalia’s sovereignty and complicate reconciliation efforts. Somalia stands at a critical juncture due to the convergence of economic instability, humanitarian crises, political polarization, and external interference.

The curtailing of remittances poses a risk of economic collapse, unresolved electoral disputes endanger the legitimacy of the leadership, divisions between federal and state governments undermine governance, and climate-related shocks exacerbate food insecurity. If Somalia’s federal government and opposition leaders do not resume and engage in constructive dialogue, the country may face serious existential threats to its stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. International partners must prioritize mediation and support to help prevent collapse, understanding that Somalia’s fate is not only a concern for the region and the world.

The stakes extend beyond Somalia’s borders. Instability in Mogadishu has repercussions across the Horn of Africa, jeopardizing Ethiopia’s fragile transition, compromising Kenya’s security, and disrupting maritime trade along the Red Sea corridor. In this respect, Somalia’s crisis represents both a national tragedy and a regional and global challenge, demanding urgent attention from policymakers, scholars, and citizens alike. The lessons of history are clear: when fragile states collapse, the consequences ripple beyond their borders.

Somalia’s current trajectory will not only determine its own destiny but also affect the stability of an entire region that lies at the intersection of Africa, the Middle East, and global trade. Countries in the region that are now rejoicing in Somalia’s division and secession, whether they are African or Arab, will ultimately be burned by the same turmoil if they do not work to quench the flames of the conflict now.

Ali Haji Warsame MBA MA CPA CGMA
Email: ali.warsame@hiilinstitute.org
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Ali Haji Warsame is the Executive Director of Hiil Institute for Governance, the former Puntland Minister of Education, and WardheerNews contributor.