BAHIR DAR, Ethiopia (WDN) — Ethiopia has warned that escalating military activity, competition among foreign powers and attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea threaten regional stability and international trade. Yet the warning comes as the landlocked country intensifies its pursuit of reliable access to the sea, raising questions about how far Addis Ababa is prepared to go to secure its strategic ambitions.

Redwan Hussein, director of Ethiopia’s National Intelligence and Security Service, said Red Sea security should not be regarded as the exclusive responsibility of coastal states, arguing that regional governments and the international community must work together to protect vital maritime routes.

Speaking at a session linked to the Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa in Bahir Dar, Redwan highlighted the strategic importance of the Horn of Africa, its natural resources and its commercial corridors. He warned that competition among foreign powers for influence, alongside domestic conflicts, disputes over resources and threats from extremist groups, was complicating the regional security environment.

Ethiopia, he said, was prepared to cooperate with neighbouring countries and international institutions to strengthen security across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

But the timing of the warning is significant. Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, lost direct access to the sea when Eritrea became independent in 1993. Since then, Addis Ababa has relied heavily on neighbouring countries’ ports, particularly Djibouti, for its international trade.

The Ethiopian government considers access to the sea a strategic economic and national interest. However, its pursuit of maritime access has generated concern among neighbouring coastal states, particularly Somalia, where sovereignty and territorial integrity remain central issues in regional relations.

Maritime access or territorial ambition?

Ethiopia’s desire for dependable access to the Red Sea and other regional maritime routes is understandable in economic terms. A country of its size and population depends on secure transport corridors to import essential goods and export its products. Heavy reliance on a limited number of foreign ports also exposes its economy to disruptions, rising costs and political disagreements. The controversy lies in how Addis Ababa seeks to achieve that objective.

Ethiopia’s January 2024 memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, which proposed arrangements involving sea access and a possible Ethiopian naval presence, triggered a major diplomatic dispute with Somalia. Mogadishu rejected the agreement as an infringement on Somali sovereignty, while Ethiopia presented maritime access as a strategic priority.

The episode intensified fears that Ethiopia’s pursuit of a coastline could become a source of regional instability rather than cooperation. Any arrangement involving access to ports, naval facilities or coastal territory requires clarity over sovereignty, jurisdiction and the rights of the recognised territorial state.

For Somalia and other coastal countries, the distinction is fundamental: securing commercial access to a port is not the same as acquiring sovereign territory or claiming a strip of coastline.

Ethiopia’s landlocked status does not, by itself, confer a right to another country’s territory. Its legitimate economic interests must be pursued through negotiated agreements that respect international law and the sovereignty of neighbouring states.

The contradiction at the heart of regional security

Redwan’s warning about foreign military competition and threats to commercial shipping reflects genuine concerns. The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are critical arteries for global trade, connecting the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal and markets in Europe and beyond. Instability along these routes can increase shipping costs, disrupt supply chains and expose coastal communities to wider geopolitical rivalries.

Yet regional security cannot be strengthened through rhetoric alone. It requires trust among neighbouring states, respect for established borders and a commitment to resolving disputes peacefully.

Ethiopia’s call for collective responsibility would carry greater weight if accompanied by clear assurances that its maritime ambitions will not undermine the territorial integrity of Somalia or any other neighbouring country.

Regional cooperation should focus on practical arrangements: commercial port agreements, shared maritime surveillance, anti-piracy operations, protection of shipping and diplomatic mechanisms for resolving disputes. Such measures can serve Ethiopia’s economic interests without creating new territorial conflicts.

A test for the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa has endured decades of conflict, mistrust and competition over strategic territory. At a time when external powers are seeking greater influence around the Red Sea, another dispute over access to the coast could deepen existing divisions and expose the region to further instability.

Ethiopia has a legitimate interest in securing reliable and affordable maritime access. Its neighbours, however, have an equally legitimate interest in protecting their sovereignty and preventing economic or security arguments from becoming justifications for territorial claims.

The challenge for Addis Ababa is therefore not simply to obtain access to the sea, but to demonstrate that its pursuit of that access can coexist with the rights and security of neighbouring countries.

If Ethiopia wants the region to treat Red Sea security as a shared responsibility, it must also recognise that regional stability begins with respect for the sovereignty of the states whose coastlines it seeks to use.

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