By Osman Hassan (Badawi)

The Israeli recognition of the one-clan secessionist enclave in northern Somalia (aka Somaliland), in exchange for military bases at Berbera for attacking fellow Muslims, is an earthshaking development for Somalia and also of great concern to others. Once one has internalised the immediate initial shockwaves it has created, one has to look at the rationale and calculations behind Israeli’s audacious action, and how these will play out in the face of the realities prevailing in Somalia or the reactions it provokes elsewhere.

One has to look at what happened from the Israeli perspective. Much as the secessionist one-clan enclave masquerading as “Somaliland” (otherwise northern Somalia) fools the world that the populations of the territory are monolithic, that all are for the secession, yet the truth is otherwise and the Israelis are unlikely to fall for the clan’s hogwash. They have Mossad agents in the region, and are bound to be fully aware that close to half of what the secessionists call “Somaliland” is not under their control but is now the unionist NE federal member State of Somalia.

And when it comes to the other part of northern Somalia (the NW region), the secessionist clan’s area is merely around a third. But they still occupy the unionist Awdal region. The clans in  the Awdal region, like those in the NE before them, are also on their own to liberate themselves with no help from the central government in Mogadishu. Once Awdal is free, sooner rather later, it will also become, like the NE State, another federal member State. What they call “Somaliland” would then amount to an exclusive to one clan.

All these facts are cited to illuminate the true picture about northern Somalia and to debunk the self-serving lies spread by the one-clan secessionists. The clear message from the indisputable realities in northern Somalia is that Israeli’s recognition of one-clan enclave (“Somaliland”) is hollow and unsustainable when the enclave does not include the unionist NE and Awdal regions, when it has no marked or internationally recognized borders, and when it has no fixed populations given that around 70% are nomads crossing into other clans lands in search for water and grazing. Under the circumstances, foreign bases in the enclave by Israel or others would remain unless the whole of northern Somalia is under the one-clan’s control. It is therefore all the more likely that Israel will arm the clan to recapture the NE soonest in order to be in full control of the whole of northern Somalia.

And if Israel is true to its reputation, it will go the whole hog for mission accomplished in “Somaliland”. Nothing is more of an anathema to it than to be seen to have failed in any of its spectacular clandestine interventions and the one in “Somaliland” would be no exception. Rather than step back from what others might see as a rash self-defeating  adventure, for Israel, drunk with military successes here and there, another success in “Somaliland” can only  further enhance its supremacy and boost Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political domestic fortunes.

For mission success, Israel is counting first on its own strengths: the combinations of what it perceives as its unrivalled military prowess and also its “exceptionalism” – that, with the US as its God father, it can do anything wrong and still get away with it, untouchable and unaccountable to no one, all the more in the Trumpian era where might is right.
Secondly, Israeli is also capitalising on the pervasive political malaise prevalent in Somalia which can only cumulatively help its mission in “Somaliland”.

1.Israel is aware that the demand for the union in 1960 came in the first place from the people of former British Somaliland; that, today, it is the same northerners, apart from the secessionist clan, who are still more attached to the union than their southern counterparts, and it is them fighting on their own to defend it with no support from the southern-dominated central government in Mogadishu upon which it was incumbent to defend it.

2. Israel is also aware that president Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s continuous generous funding to the secessionist while denying it to the unionists resisting them is what is sustaining the secession. It can conclude that he is weaponizing funding with the aim of forcing the NE unionists to surrender to “Somaliland’s” rule and to that extent tacitly for the breakup of Somalia and therefore would not mind if the secession clan were to reoccupy the NE State with the help of Israel.

3. Israel is also aware that Somalia, under its current most divisive leader, is a failed state where the writ of the government does not go beyond the capital and Somalia’s southern federal States have transformed. Defending the union in southern Somalia is not a priority, neither for Villa Somalia nor for the regions. Under this paradigm, Somalia has become a heaven for free for all foreign interference and Israel could see itself as no exception.

4. And finally Israel sees President Hassan and Mogadishu’s political class as consumed by internal political squabbles that what is happening in the north is like out of sight and out of mind. This further reinforces the neglect of the north and once to the advantage of outsiders to take advantage of it.

The US could prevail over Israel if they see a strong backlash against Israeli’s action in Somalia andfear for their own wider interests in the country which outweigh those of Israel. Somalia, with its unparalleled strategic position in the Horn of Africa, with its over 3000 km of coastline straddling both the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, is worth for the US interests more than the port of Berbera. But they are unlikely to act and restrain Israel so long as they see Villa Somalia reaction to Israel’s intervention is confined to empty gestures and no concrete action in the north where action matters. So the ball is in Somalia’s court.

It is heartening for the Somali people that the whole international community has come to defend Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. And what particularly pleases them is that the former colonial power in northern Somali has comes out fully behind this support at the UN Security Council while the perfidious Uncle Sam has been disingenuously siding both with Somalia and Israel. It is ironic that while the international community is fully supporting Somalia’s unity, it is the very Somalia itself, under the leadership of President Hassans, which has been the greatest enemy to its own unity. And unless that changes now, the international community may eventually tire supporting a failed State for ever.

Somalia might be largely responsible for the crisis it’s facing in northern Somalia. It is paying the price for doing nothing to end the secession for decades. But the danger that Somalia is facing is not confined to the possible breakaway of northern Somalia. It is the wider adverse consequences its ushers– the possible Pandora’s box in which different southern federal States of Somalia, only nominally different from “Somaliland” will go their different ways. So what are our options? Succumbing to the breakup of Somalia is no option.

Ironically, Israel’s intervention to breakup Somalia could be a blessing in disguise. It could on the contrary serve to restore Somalia’s true unity and revival and once again takes its former place of pride in Africa and the wider world. We have in the NE people who have already defeated the secessionist occupying forces in Sool. They are ready again to be in the forefront in defeating the enemies of Somalia. We have friendly countries on our side ready to come to our aid. All the ingredients for success are there except the leader to bring it to fruition. Can the leader who put Somalia in this mess in the first place be the one to  defend it? Aware of his multiple faults, the odds are against it to be realistic. But it is not also  impossible that he could rise to the challenge, and in the process transform his political fortunes for the next president election and even secure his place in history as the leader who saved his country in its greatest hour of need.

What is required of president Hassan Sheik Mohamoud is to come up with a comprehensive coherent strategy for reuniting the county- not gimmicks like one lone visit to Lascanod, nor token symbolic gestures to defend it. It should be more than that and nothing less than a strategy for defeating the enemy (for that is what SNM is) once and for all and reuniting the country. It should be a two-track strategy combining military and the political transformation of the north. Possible outlines are suggested below:

1.The military component

The NE militias should be immediately transformed into federal national regular army and serve as the nucleus of the restoration of Somalia’s former 26th  Division that used to be based in Hargeisa in the 19980s. It would be the one that should defends northern Somalia from internal and external enemies. It would intervene also to ensure that no roque federal state leader acts independent of the central government and conducts relations with foreign entities.

2, Political component

Among other things, the president should transform the image of northern Somalia not as one that is “Somaliland” but one that is an integral part of Somalia – politically, constitutionally and economically. For that to be credible, the president should undertake the following:

i) That Awdal is declared immediately a federal member state.

ii) That a new deputy Prime Minister be named who should come from Awda. Happily good candidates from the region abound.

iii) The deputy PM should often be based in the north and the president and PM should visit the north routinely and not once in a blue moon as happened hitherto.

These are merely my own tentative suggestions  for action. Needless to say, Somalia is paying for its past failures and president Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud carries much of the blame for that. He owes it to his country to be good for a change. Let us hope he will redeems himself. A good end to his last term could be the happy memories that many people may like to keep. Can the Nemesis of Somalia be its Saviour? Let us pray so.

Osman Hassan (Badawi)
Osman Hassan
Email: Osman.hassan2@gmail.com
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Osman Hassan is a seasoned journalist and a former UN staff member. Mr Hassan is also a regular contributor to WardheerNews.