By Hussien Mohamed Yusuf and Abdiweli Sulaiman Abdi

The Greater Horn of Africa has received an important early warning. The regional climate outlook released in Kigali, Rwanda, on 18 August 2026 indicates an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions during the October–December 2026 rainy season.

The forecast was released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), together with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the Greater Horn of Africa and other partners. It provides governments, humanitarian agencies, communities and development partners with valuable time to prepare for potentially heavy and torrential rainfall.

The October–December period is one of the most important rainy seasons for the equatorial and southern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. It contributes up to 70 per cent of annual rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, and up to 40 per cent in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda. The performance of this rainy season therefore has major implications for agriculture, livestock, water availability, food security, public health, infrastructure and regional trade.

According to the forecast, southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya have a 90 per cent probability of receiving enhanced rainfall. Seasonal rainfall could exceed 400 millimetres in parts of central and southern Somalia, central Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania.

The rains are expected to begin early or around the normal time across Somalia, central and eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and most parts of Tanzania. At the same time, warmer-than-average temperatures are likely across much of the region, particularly in eastern Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia.

This is not simply a weather update. It is an early warning that should immediately influence government preparedness plans, humanitarian operations, local development decisions and household-level action.

Understanding what is driving the expected rainfall

The expected rainfall is associated with changes in ocean temperatures that influence weather patterns across the world. El Niño has developed over the Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen during the remainder of 2026. At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to enter a positive phase.

When these two climate conditions occur together, they often contribute to increased rainfall over the eastern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. ICPAC has identified 1997 and 2023 as useful historical reference years because wetter-than-normal conditions were experienced across much of the region during the October–December rainy seasons of those years.

However, historical comparisons should only provide context for preparedness. They do not mean that the events of 1997 or 2023 will be repeated in exactly the same way in 2026. The current forecast remains the primary source of information for decision-making.

A wetter-than-normal forecast also does not mean that every location will experience flooding or that rain will fall continuously throughout the three-month period. Rainfall may vary considerably in timing, intensity and geographical distribution. Some areas may receive prolonged rainfall, while others may experience extremely heavy rain within a few hours or days.

Preparedness must therefore consider not only the total amount of rainfall expected during the season but also how quickly it falls, where it falls and whether rivers, soils, drainage systems and infrastructure can safely absorb or carry the water.

More rainfall can be both a beneficial and a threat

After recurrent droughts in parts of the Horn of Africa, enhanced rainfall could provide much-needed relief. It may replenish dams, reservoirs, shallow wells and groundwater sources. It could regenerate pasture, improve livestock conditions, support crop production and create opportunities for rainwater harvesting.

Nevertheless, rainfall only becomes beneficial when it is properly managed. The same rain that fills reservoirs and restores pasture can destroy homes, farms and infrastructure when it falls intensely, reaches saturated land or flows through degraded catchments and blocked drainage channels.

Torrential rainfall may cause flash floods in drylands and towns, while sustained rainfall can increase river levels and trigger extensive riverine flooding. Floodwater can sweep away people and livestock, destroy standing crops, damage schools and health facilities, contaminate water sources and cut roads connecting communities to markets and essential services.

Stagnant and contaminated water may increase the risk of cholera and other water-borne diseases. Pools of standing water can create breeding grounds for mosquitoes, increasing the risk of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Health and nutrition services may also be interrupted precisely when affected communities need them most.

Pastoral communities may benefit from improved water and pasture but could simultaneously experience livestock diseases, damaged access routes, isolated grazing areas and dangerous river crossings. Farmers may receive sufficient rainfall for crop production but lose their harvests to waterlogging, erosion or flooding if drainage and soil conservation measures are inadequate.

Urban settlements face their own serious risks. Rapidly growing towns across the region frequently have inadequate drainage systems, construction in floodplains and waterways, poor solid-waste management and large populations living in informal settlements. Heavy rainfall can quickly overwhelm these areas, leading to loss of life, displacement, property damage and disruption of economic activity.

Somalia and neighboring areas require particular attention

Somalia and the adjoining lowlands of Ethiopia and Kenya require urgent and coordinated preparedness. Their shared rivers, dryland catchments, cross-border roads and mobile pastoral livelihoods create interconnected risks.

Heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands can raise river levels and cause flooding further downstream in Somalia, even when local rainfall in the affected Somali communities is relatively moderate. Preparedness along the Juba and Shabelle rivers must therefore be supported by continuous exchange of information about upstream rainfall, river levels and reservoir conditions between Ethiopia and Somalia.

Southern and central Somalia face a combination of riverine and flash-flood risks. Communities living along rivers, seasonal waterways and low-lying areas should receive regular information about changing conditions, safe evacuation routes, temporary shelters and the availability of essential services.

The Mandera Triangle, shared by Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, also requires close cross-border coordination. Flash floods can damage roads, isolate settlements and disrupt livestock movement, trade, markets and humanitarian access. The few bridges along Jubba river, Tana river and Shabelle that survived during 2023 floods are at risk of being washed away. Furthermore, border communities often depend on services, grazing areas, markets and water sources located across national boundaries.

Climate hazards do not recognize political borders. Preparedness must therefore extend beyond individual districts, counties and countries. Cross-border coordination is essential for monitoring hazards, sharing warnings and protecting communities whose lives and livelihoods depend on movement across borders.

Turning the forecast into early action

The first priority is to translate the regional forecast into detailed and understandable local information. National meteorological and hydrological services should identify the areas most likely to experience heavy rainfall, flash floods, riverine flooding and related hazards.

Disaster management authorities, local governments and sector ministries should then translate these forecasts into practical scenarios. They must clearly explain what may happen, where it could happen, who and what may be affected, and which actions should be taken.

Seasonal forecasts are useful for advance planning, but they cannot provide every detail required for local operations. Governments, humanitarian organisations and communities must continue following weekly, monthly and shorter-range forecasts. River levels, soil moisture, reservoir conditions and community observations should also be continuously monitored.

The second priority is to activate anticipatory action plans and make financing available before disasters occur. Contingency funds, emergency procurement arrangements, cash-transfer systems and agreements between governments and humanitarian partners should be prepared before warning thresholds are reached.

Waiting until homes are destroyed, livelihoods are lost and communities are displaced defeats the purpose of early warning. When forecasts and river-level monitoring indicate increasing danger, authorities and partners should be ready to act immediately.

Early measures could include providing forecast-based cash assistance to vulnerable households, pre-positioning food and essential supplies, distributing water-treatment materials, preparing temporary shelters, supporting voluntary evacuation and moving equipment and essential stocks away from flood-prone areas.

Medicines, mosquito nets, cholera-treatment supplies, livestock vaccines, boats and rescue equipment should be positioned near areas likely to become inaccessible. Communities should know where emergency resources are located and which institution is responsible for providing assistance.

Reducing risk before the rains intensify

Local authorities should use the remaining preparedness period to clear drainage systems, culverts and waterways. Waste blocking drainage channels must be removed and disposed of safely. Weak river embankments should be inspected and reinforced, while dams and other water-control structures should undergo urgent safety assessments.

Water sources, boreholes, latrines and waste-disposal sites should be protected against contamination. Health authorities should strengthen disease surveillance, stock essential medicines, prepare mobile health teams and identify alternative routes for reaching communities if roads become impassable.

Road agencies should map locations that are frequently cut off by floods and position machinery, fuel and repair materials nearby. Bridges, crossings and road sections exposed to erosion should be inspected before the rains intensify. Transporters and travellers should receive timely information about unsafe roads and available alternative routes.

Agriculture authorities should advise farmers on planting dates, suitable crop varieties, soil conservation and farm drainage. Farmers in flood-prone areas may need assistance to protect seeds, farming equipment, harvested crops and livestock feed.

Livestock agencies should increase surveillance for diseases associated with wet conditions, undertake vaccination where appropriate and advise pastoralists on safe grazing areas and livestock movement routes. Fodder should be stored in locations protected from flooding.

These measures must be designed carefully. Strengthening an embankment in one location should not simply redirect floodwater towards another community. Clearing drains must be linked to proper waste management. Water-harvesting infrastructure must be constructed and maintained safely to prevent dam failures, erosion and the creation of disease-breeding sites.

Evacuation plans must consider children, older people, pregnant women, persons with disabilities and households without transport. Temporary shelters should provide adequate water, sanitation, health services, security, privacy and protection.

Anticipatory action is not only about acting quickly. It is about taking the right action early, protecting human dignity and avoiding the creation of new risks.

Climate information must reach the people who need it most

A climate forecast has little protective value if it remains in GHACOF hall, technical reports, conferences or government offices. Information must reach the people who will decide whether to plant crops, move livestock, reinforce their homes, protect their businesses, change their travel routes or evacuate to highlands when necessary.

Warnings should be communicated through multiple trusted channels, including local radio, community meetings, extension workers, health workers, religious leaders, schools, disaster management committees, market associations, mobile-phone alerts, social media and interactive voice services.

Messages should be provided in local languages and accessible formats. They must also be repeated and regularly updated. A single announcement at the beginning of the season is not enough, especially when conditions may change rapidly.

The message must go beyond saying that wetter-than-normal conditions are expected. Communities need to know the likely local consequences, the areas at greatest risk, the period of greatest concern, the actions they should take, the places they should avoid and where they can obtain assistance.

Technical terms such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole may be useful to scientists, but communities need practical guidance. A warning should tell farmers whether they need to improve field drainage, pastoralists whether a river crossing is unsafe, traders whether an important road may close and families whether they should prepare to evacuate.

Communication must also be two-way. Community information about rising rivers, damaged embankments, blocked drains, livestock diseases, unsafe roads and population movements should be incorporated into official monitoring and decision-making.

Women, farmers, pastoralists, fishers, transporters, displaced people and persons with disabilities may experience climate hazards differently. Their knowledge and participation can improve the accuracy, practicality and credibility of preparedness measures.

The media also have a major public-safety responsibility. Journalists should receive regular briefings from meteorological, hydrological, health and disaster management authorities. Sensational reporting can create unnecessary panic, while vague or inconsistent reporting may encourage complacency. Forecast information should be communicated accurately and accompanied by clear and verified public advisories.

Four priorities for the preparedness period

First, governments must localize the forecast and map its likely consequences. Regional information should be combined with national and local forecasts, river monitoring, flood-risk maps, infrastructure information and community knowledge. Every district, county, municipality and cross-border cluster should know its main risk areas and priority actions.

Second, governments and partners must release early financing and implement practical measures before losses occur. Clearing drainage systems, protecting water sources, strengthening health surveillance, pre-positioning emergency supplies, repairing critical access routes and supporting safe water harvesting can provide benefits even if the most severe rainfall scenario does not occur.

Third, authorities must establish strong last-mile communication systems. Warnings should reach communities in languages and formats they understand and should provide clear instructions. Communication must combine radio and mobile technology with community-based engagement, particularly in remote areas and among mobile populations.

Fourth, countries must strengthen coordination across sectors and borders. Meteorological and hydrological services, disaster authorities, health agencies, agriculture and livestock departments, water institutions, road agencies, humanitarian organizations, local administrations and the media should participate in regular operational briefings. Upstream and downstream information must be shared rapidly, particularly across the Juba and Shabelle river basins and other cross-border catchments.

The value of a forecast lies in the losses it prevents

The October–December 2026 rainfall forecast has provided the region with something extremely valuable: time to prepare.

Governments and communities do not have to wait for rivers to overflow, roads to disappear or families to be displaced before taking action. The scientific information is available early enough to guide planning, release resources and protect those most at risk.

As a regional climate center, ICPAC is expected to continue to provide regional updates, while National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will issue detailed country forecasts and public advisories. Stakeholders must follow these updates because the seasonal outlook will continue to evolve and local hazards may emerge quickly.

Preparedness should therefore be treated as a continuous process rather than a one-time response to a seasonal forecast.

The forecast is clear enough to justify immediate action but uncertain enough to require regular monitoring. If the region acts early, enhanced rainfall can replenish water resources, support agriculture and restore pastoral livelihoods while the risk of destructive flooding is reduced.

If the warning is discussed but not translated into action, the region may once again count losses that timely climate information could have helped prevent. The success of this forecast will not be measured by the accuracy of its maps alone. It will be measured by how quickly the information reaches exposed communities, the decisions it changes, the early measures it triggers and, most importantly, the lives and livelihoods it protects.

Hussien Mohamed Yusuf and Abdiweli Sulaiman Abdi
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Hussein and Abdiweli are climate change adaptation and DRM Experts who have been involved in translating Regional Climate Outlooks into practical actions in the Horn and Southern Africa Regions for many Years, supporting different partners in Africa.