Mogadishu (WDN) – Humanitarian organizations are warning that Somalia could once again face severe flooding and a worsening humanitarian emergency if El Niño weather conditions return later this year, raising concerns that the country may relive the devastation experienced during the 2023 floods.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) said climate experts are closely monitoring the potential emergence of El Niño, a global weather phenomenon associated with extreme rainfall in parts of East Africa. The organization warned that the anticipated weather pattern could trigger widespread flooding, extreme heat, disease outbreaks, and, paradoxically, prolonged drought in different regions stretching from East Africa to Asia.

According to the IRC, Somalia is among the countries considered most vulnerable to the anticipated climate shocks. Other nations facing elevated risks include Kenya, Uganda, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, where humanitarian agencies are also preparing for possible weather-related emergencies. The warning comes despite earlier rainfall forecasts issued in June that ultimately failed to materialize. Humanitarian agencies say weather conditions are continuing to be assessed throughout July as forecasters monitor evolving climate patterns.

While uncertainty remains over the timing and intensity of any El Niño event, aid organizations emphasize that Somalia is already grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis. The IRC estimates that 4.8 million people across the country currently require urgent humanitarian assistance due to ongoing drought, food insecurity, displacement, and economic hardship.

The organization cautioned that another season of extreme weather could overwhelm already vulnerable communities that have yet to recover from previous climate disasters. In its statement, the IRC recalled the catastrophic impact of the 2023 El Niño event, which caused widespread flooding across Somalia, submerged entire towns, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and destroyed more than 10,000 tons of agricultural crops, dealing a major blow to food production and rural livelihoods.

Humanitarian agencies are urging authorities, donors, and international partners to strengthen preparedness measures before heavy rains begin, warning that early action will be critical to reducing the human and economic costs of any future climate-related disaster.

For Somalia, where communities continue to endure the combined effects of conflict, recurring drought, and fragile infrastructure, another severe El Niño season could significantly deepen one of the world’s most protracted humanitarian crises.

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