By Abdiqani Haji Abdi

Before the end of this week, Somalia’s Federal Government and opposition leaders are expected to meet in Mogadishu for what is being described as a last-ditch political summit aimed at resolving the country’s escalating crisis over elections and the constitution — two explosive issues that now threaten to push Somalia toward full-scale political collapse.

The highly anticipated talks come at a moment of extreme national tension, with the country’s political order visibly unraveling and public confidence in the leadership rapidly evaporating.

Yet the central question dominating political circles is brutally simple: what makes this meeting any different from the many failed negotiations that came before it? The same political actors have already sat across from one another repeatedly, only to emerge more divided, more distrustful, and more entrenched in their positions. To this day, there is no visible sign that either side is prepared to compromise.

Many observers believe the only real difference this time is the clock itself. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration reportedly has just three days remaining in its mandate, while Somalia as a whole appears to be drifting dangerously close to institutional breakdown.

At the same time, there is growing public sentiment that the international community has largely abandoned Somalia. Many Somalis argue that if Western powers genuinely cared about stabilizing the country, they would long ago have confronted President Hassan Sheikh over mounting accusations of corruption, land seizures, abuse of power, and the transformation of state institutions into what critics describe as a family-controlled political network.

A powerful feeling is now spreading across the country that international actors are simply watching Somalia’s collapse unfold in silence. Some even believe Western powers are quietly allowing the disintegration to continue despite years of warnings about state failure, political fragmentation, and rising authoritarianism.

Critics argue that if serious international pressure truly existed, sanctions and financial restrictions would already have targeted officials accused of looting public resources, orchestrating mass displacement, and profiting from the suffering of ordinary citizens.

Meanwhile, it was reported that journalists have been formally informed that international actors — including the United States and the United Kingdom — will not participate in facilitating or mediating the upcoming talks. The meeting is expected to take place inside Villa Somalia itself, further deepening opposition concerns over neutrality and credibility.

But the greatest skepticism surrounds President Hassan Sheikh himself. Since returning to office, critics say the president has not demonstrated a single meaningful political concession. Instead, they accuse him of ruling through confrontation, centralization, and political coercion while the country steadily fractures around him.

Opposition figures and many ordinary Somalis continue to point to the massive displacement crisis in Mogadishu, where hundreds of thousands of civilians were allegedly forced from their homes amid accusations that public land was handed over to politically connected businessmen. Critics say the administration has shown little compassion while entire communities were uprooted and pushed deeper into poverty.

Previous reconciliation conferences, traditional elders’ meetings, and political dialogues all ended in failure, producing no lasting agreements and no meaningful national consensus. For many Somalis, this latest summit appears less like a breakthrough and more like another political performance staged as the country edges toward disaster.

Fears are now intensifying that Somalia may be sliding toward conditions eerily similar to the collapse of 1991. Federal member states are increasingly fragmented, political tensions are exploding, public trust in government institutions is collapsing, and the country’s fragile federal system appears to be under unprecedented strain.

Across the nation, many Somalis no longer believe President Hassan Sheikh is capable of compromise. A popular Somali proverb now echoes through political discussions: “A man you know who goes to sleep wakes up exactly as he was.”

For many, the meaning is unmistakable: after four years of deepening division, forced displacement, and failed dialogue, few expect the president to suddenly transform into a leader willing to sacrifice power for national consensus.

As Somalia stands at one of the most dangerous crossroads in its modern history, the coming days may determine whether the country steps back from the edge — or accelerates toward a new era of political rupture and national disintegration.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com