By Balal Mohamed Cusman, former State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Somalia

As the Çağrı Bey Turkish drill ship appears off the coast of Mogadishu, preparing to commence hydrocarbon exploration, Somalia stands at a pivotal historical moment. The prospect of oil and gas development presents an opportunity to accelerate state-building, stimulate economic growth and restore national dignity after decades of conflict and fragility. This development is not occurring in isolation but is rooted in a long-standing and evolving partnership between Somalia and Turkiye. Over the past decade, Turkiye has played a significant role in Somalia’s reconstruction through investments in infrastructure, security, and social development. The modernization of Mogadishu’s port and airport has enhanced revenue generation and connectivity, while Turkish-supported military training has strengthened national security institutions. In addition, educational scholarships and healthcare investments have contributed to human capital development.

However, history demonstrates that natural resource wealth can either deliver promise or invite peril, depending on governance, institutional capacity and political accountability. Experiences from other countries offer important lessons. In Nigeria, oil wealth generated substantial revenues but also led to corruption, environmental degradation and inequality (Watts, 2004). In South Sudan, oil revenues intensified political competition and conflict (LeRiche & Arnold, 2012). In contrast, Angola, despite benefiting from oil-fuelled reconstruction, has faced persistent challenges in achieving economic diversification and reducing inequality (Soares de Oliveira, 2015).

In contrast, Botswana has successfully managed its diamond resources through strong institutions and prudent policies (Acemoglu et al., 2003). Norway also stands as a global benchmark, having established a sovereign wealth fund and ensuring transparency and intergenerational equity (Mehlum et al., 2006).

Somalia has a unique advantage as it can learn from these global experiences. As its institutions continue to develop, there is an opportunity to embed transparency, accountability and strategic planning from the outset. This requires prioritizing strong regulatory frameworks, ensuring public disclosure of agreements and establishing mechanisms such as a Somali Sovereign Wealth Fund (SSWF). Transparency is especially crucial given widespread concerns that the current administration, accused of corruption and prioritizing personal over national interests (Transparency Solutions 2026), did not fully disclose the 2024 hydrocarbon cooperation agreement between Somalia and Türkiye, nor subject it to proper parliamentary scrutiny. According to the Provisional Constitution of Somalia (2012), Articles 44, 54, 71, and 90 emphasize the need for parliamentary oversight and federal-state collaboration in natural resource management. Failure to adhere to these provisions raises questions about constitutional compliance and public trust.

Will Somalia’s oil exploration deliver promise or invite peril? The evidence from across the world suggests that it is neither predetermined nor inevitable, it will ultimately depend on governance. Natural resources have the potential to transform economies, but only where they are managed with transparency, accountability and a firm commitment to national sovereignty. In Somalia’s case, the defining factor will be whether institutions are strong enough to regulate the sector effectively, ensure fair and transparent contracts and channel revenues into broad-based development. If governance is weak, opaque or captured by narrow personal or group interests, oil risks deepening divisions, distorting the economy and undermining state-building efforts. But if managed prudently, with clear legal frameworks, equitable revenue-sharing and strategic reinvestment into key sectors, such as agriculture, fishery, livestock and manufacturing, oil can become a catalyst for stability, growth and national cohesion. In the end, Somalia’s trajectory will not be determined by the discovery of oil itself, but by the integrity and foresight with which it is governed.

Finally, I wish to underscore a critical long-term risk that, in my view, must not be overlooked – the possibility that natural resources could be nationalized in the future if agreements concluded under the current administration are later deemed unjust or exploitative. In contexts where contracts are negotiated under conditions of fragility, limited institutional capacity, bypassed proper constitutional procedures or asymmetrical power dynamics, there is a danger that terms may disproportionately favour external investors or few locals while failing to reflect the sovereign interests of the Somali people.

History has shown, in countries such as Venezuela and Bolivia (Monaldi, 2010) that when citizens and future governments come to view such agreements as inequitable or imposed during moments of vulnerability, political pressure often builds for renegotiation or outright nationalization. This not only disrupts investor confidence and long-term economic planning but can also trigger legal disputes and confiscation of assets. Therefore, for both Somalia and Turkiye, the lesson is clear, only balanced, transparent and mutually respectful agreements, grounded in fairness, transparency, accountability and a firm commitment to national sovereignty, can ensure durability, protect investments and prevent future cycles of contestation.

Balal Mohamed Cusman
Email: bcusman@gmail.com
X:@BalalCusman

Balal is the former State Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Somalia.
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References
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. (2003). An African Success Story: Botswana. In Rodrik, D. (Ed.), In Search of Prosperity.
LeRiche, M., & Arnold, M. (2012). South Sudan: From Revolution to Independence. Oxford University Press.
Mehlum, H., Moene, K., & Torvik, R. (2006). Institutions and the Resource Curse. The Economic Journal.
Monaldi, F. (2010). The Political Economy of Oil Production in Latin America. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Soares de Oliveira, R. (2015). Magnificent and Beggar Land: Angola Since the Civil War. Oxford University Press.
Watts, M. (2004). Resource Curse? Governmentality, Oil and Power in the Niger Delta. Geopolitics.
Transparency Solutions (2026) Transparency in Action: Analysing the CPI 2025 Report and Strategic Recommendations for Somalia. Mogadishu: Transparency Solutions.