By Abdiqani Haji Abdi

In recent years, global policymakers have championed National Transformation Development Plans (NTPs) as blueprints for middle-income nations like Kenya, Tanzania and Malaysia to leapfrog into prosperity. For Somalia, however—a country still navigating the complexities of statehood after three decades of conflict—the allure of such sweeping strategies risks becoming a distraction. While the ambition is understandable, Somalia’s structural realities render the adoption of an NTP not only premature but potentially counterproductive.

The launch event for Somalia’s National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2025-2029 took place at the Decale Hotel, located within the heavily fortified Mogadishu Airport. This venue choice underscores the prevailing security challenges in Mogadishu, particularly concerning high-profile events.

The SYL Hotel, situated directly opposite Villa Somalia—the presidential palace—has historically been a preferred location for governmental functions. However, its proximity has not shielded it from repeated attacks by the militant group al-Shabaab. Notably, on March 14, 2024, the SYL Hotel endured a severe assault involving a suicide bombing and a subsequent 13-hour siege, resulting in multiple casualties. Such incidents have rendered venues like the SYL Hotel less viable for official events due to security concerns.

Consequently, the selection of the Decale Hotel, within the secure confines of the airport, reflects the necessity for heightened security measures. This situation highlights the constraints faced by Somali leadership, including the Prime Minister and the President, in their movements and venue selections within Mogadishu, underscoring the persistent security threats posed by al-Shabaab.

The Mirage of Quick Fixes

Proponents of a Somali NTDP often point to Rwanda’s post-genocide revival or Malaysia’s “Vision 2020” as models. These examples, however, obscure a critical truth: both countries implemented their plans only after securing foundational stability. Rwanda’s Vision 2020, launched in 2000, followed the total dismantling of genocidal forces and the creation of a centralized, technocratic state. Malaysia’s Vision 2020 built on decades of ethnic reconciliation, infrastructure investment, and export-driven growth.

Somalia, by contrast, remains a nation in fragments. The federal government’s authority barely extends beyond Mogadishu, with Al-Shabaab controlling swathes of the countryside and regional states like Somaliland, Jubaland and Puntland operating as quasi-independent entities. Clan loyalties still trump national identity, and the World Bank ranks Somalia last globally in governance effectiveness. As one Somali economist lamented, “We can’t plan for 2030 when we’re still fighting over 1991.”

The Preconditions Somalia Lacks

For an NTDP to succeed, three pillars are non-negotiable:

1. Security and Territorial Control
   Rwanda neutralized existential threats before launching its transformation. Somalia, however, remains in an active insurgency, with Al-Shabaab extorting $120 million annually from Mogadishu’s port alone. Development plans cannot take root where the state cannot guarantee safety for roads, schools, or hospitals.
2. Functional Institutions
   Malaysia’s Vision 2020 relied on a skilled bureaucracy and tax-to-GDP ratios above 15%. Somalia’s government collects less than 2% of GDP in revenue, struggles to pay civil servants, and lacks even basic land registries. “You can’t digitize an economy that still runs on handwritten receipts,” noted a UN development officer in Mogadishu.
3. Social Cohesion
   Rwanda suppressed ethnic divisions to forge a unified national identity. Somalia’s clans, however, remain entrenched in politics, business, and security. Federal-state disputes over oil rights and fishing licenses exemplify the zero-sum competition paralyzing collective action.

The Perils of Skipping Steps

Somalia’s international partners often conflate “state-building” with “nation-building,” pouring resources into flashy projects while neglecting systemic flaws. The $1.3 billion Mogadishu port expansion, for example, has been delayed for years due to corruption and infighting. Meanwhile, 4.6 million Somalis are internally displaced (IDPs)—a number swelling annually as inter-clan conflicts over resources and Al-Shabaab violence collide with climate catastrophes. Recurrent droughts, now hitting every 2-3 years instead of the historical 7-10-year cycle, have decimated pastoralist communities, while flash floods erase entire villages. Aid agencies project Somalia’s IDP population could reach 8 million by June 2025, a staggering 65% of the population, if current trends persist.

“We’re not just rebuilding a state—we’re racing against collapse,” said Halima Ahmed, a humanitarian worker in Baidoa, where IDP camps sprawl across the city’s outskirts. “Every year, droughts and clan wars flush whole communities into these camps. They arrive with nothing, and the world offers plans, not solutions.”

A Better Path: Incremental, Grounded, Somali-Led

This is not a call for pessimism but pragmatism. Somalia’s future hinges on sequencing:

1. Secure, Then Govern
   Neutralize Al-Shabaab through coordinated regional military campaigns and integrate clan militias into a unified security force.
2. Build From the Ground Up
   Prioritize local governance—reforming   elections, restoring property rights, and investing in solar-powered grids and boreholes to build trust.
3. Leverage the Diaspora
   Somalia’s diaspora sends $1.6 billion annually in remittances. Channel these funds into micro-infrastructure (e.g., village schools, clinics) rather than relying on erratic foreign aid.
4. Climate-Proof Development
   With 8 million IDPs projected by 2025, Somalia must prioritize drought-resistant agriculture, coastal erosion barriers, and sustainable water management. Pilot projects like rainwater harvesting in Puntland have already reduced displacement in pilot villages by 40%.

Deduction: Transformation Requires Patience

Rwanda and Malaysia remind us that transformation is possible—but only after laying the groundwork. Somalia’s leaders and partners must resist the seduction of grand visions and focus on the unglamorous work of repairing institutions, reconciling clans, and rebuilding literal and metaphorical bridges.

The scale of suffering—4.6 million displaced, half the population needing aid—demands urgency, but not haste. As the Somali proverb goes: “A camel is born walking.” The journey toward stability and prosperity has already begun. What Somalia needs now is not a rushed sprint toward modernity, but the resolve to walk steadily—one step at a time.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com