By Balal M. Cusman

Weaponization of population numbers did not work before, and it will not work now. In the history of the Horn of Africa, demographic size has never delivered victory, legitimacy or stability, no matter how forcefully it was invoked. Attempts to turn population into a political weapon have repeatedly resulted in regional hostility, human loss, economic collapse and generational trauma. What was true during the confrontations between Abyssinia and Somalia in the 16^th century, and later between modern Ethiopia and Somalia in 1977, remains true today – numbers and military might did not determine the outcome, nor did they secure peace.

The same applies to the struggles of Tigray and Eritrea for self-determination in the 20^th century, demographics and military might were irrelevant to the persistence of their cause, just as they brought no decisive benefit during the deadly conflict that erupted between Eritrea and Ethiopia in 1998-2000 war. All these experiences confirm that, in the Horn of Africa, converting population growth or military might into a strategic weapon only fuels resentment, hardens nationalism and produces a new generation conditioned to expect conflict rather than coexistence. Such an approach diminishes the region’s collective future, rather than securing any individual state’s dominance. The alternative, which has consistently proven effective, is diplomacy. Most notably, when President Mohamed Siyad Barre (RIP) and Mengistu Hailemariam met following the devastation of the 1977 war, their willingness to sit across from each other in Djibouti in 1986 did more to reduce tensions than weapons or numbers ever achieved on the battlefield.

Similarly, more recently, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in the early years of his tenure, demonstrated the transformative power of negotiation when he reached a landmark agreement with Eritrea as soon as he assumed the leadership of Ethiopia in 2018, earning him the Noble Peace Prize and indeed a global recognition as a peace maker. That breakthrough not only ended two decades of enmity between Eritrea and Ethiopia, but it also opened a peaceful path for armed opposition groups against Ethiopia to return to Addis Ababa and the political reconciliation between Ethiopian government and the exiled opposition movements leading the release of political prisoners while creating new hope, not only Ethiopia but also throughout the Horn of Africa region. Although short lived, this was achieved not through force, but through diplomacy and political will.

These are powerful reminders that arrogance, demographic intimidation and political posturing do not build a secure Horn of Africa and they certainly do not solve centuries-old grievances. They only spill more blood, derail development and keep societies trapped in cycles of revenge. Besides, war in this region has never been self-contained; history shows that any renewed confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea or between Ethiopia and Somalia – in that matter – would not remain bilateral. Given the region’s strategic maritime position and global interest in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden corridors, any escalation would swiftly pull in neighbouring countries and external middle/big powers. Given the already deteriorating economic and security situations due to terrorism, droughts and communal strife, the Horn simply cannot afford another explosion of conflict.

As Somalis expression says, “Ha Noqon Ma liibaanayaasha, lagu liibaano” – which roughly translates into “Don’t be the ones who did not succeed themself but enabled others to succeed through their efforts/miscalculation”. That saying warns against self-inflicted defeat disguised as ambition. When states choose war over dialogue, they risk not only their own collapse but becoming instruments for the interests of others. It is time to choose restraint over rivalry and diplomacy over demographic bravado. Peace will not come from counting people, but from respecting them and respecting each other’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence.  Only then can the Horn of Africa replace its recurring tragedy with a shared future of stability and prosperity for all. 

Balal Mohamed Cusman
Email: bcusman@gmail.com X: @BalalCusman
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Balal is the former State Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Development of Somalia.

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References

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