By Mohamed A Yasin

The much-anticipated National Consultative Conference—once hailed as a political turning point for Somalia—has imploded, not with the decisive clarity that crises demand, but through the quiet unraveling of a deeply flawed process orchestrated from the heart of Villa Somalia. As Somalia edges closer to another political abyss, public demands for accountability have intensified, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s legitimacy is now openly challenged across the political spectrum.

What was meant to be a unifying national forum, backed by the United States and the United Kingdom, and heavily championed by their ambassadors in Mogadishu, has instead revealed the full extent of the federal government’s disconnect from the constitution, the federal system, and the Somali people themselves.

President Ahmed Madobe Rejected Mandate Extension, Citing Rule of Law

Unlike the other three federal member state leaders, Jubbaland President Mr. Ahmed Islam’s decision to walk out of the National Consultative Forum on October 7, 2024, was both deliberate and principled. President Ahmed’s move was aimed at upholding the supremacy of the rule of law and the Provisional Federal Constitution of Somalia (PFCS). In line with that commitment, he firmly rejected what he described as an illegal mandate extension proposed by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Selective Inclusion, Systemic Exclusion

The conference’s fatal flaw was evident from the outset: a selective guest list engineered by Villa Somalia that excluded key constitutional actors while extending invitations to expired and handpicked state leaders known primarily for their loyalty to the presidency. Most glaring was the exclusion of Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe—one of only two Federal Member State (FMS) leaders currently holding a legitimate mandate. His counterpart, President Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland, is also expected to decline participation, in protest of the exclusionary and unconstitutional nature of the process.

In contrast, the so-called presidents of Galmudug, South West, and Hirshabelle may attend the conference—if it ever sees the light of day—despite their mandates having long expired. Their continued tenure is upheld not by popular support or legal legitimacy, but by Villa Somalia’s tacit endorsement—widely regarded as an abuse of presidential influence and a flagrant betrayal of the Provisional Federal Constitution of Somalia (PFCS).

“The president lives in a parallel political universe,” remarked a Somali academic in Nairobi. “He behaves as if legitimacy is something he can grant or withhold, ignoring the fact that his own mandate has clear constitutional boundaries.”

Undermining Federalism, Empowering Extremism

The PFCS is unambiguous: federal member states derive their authority from their own constitutions, local elections, and parliaments—not from presidential approval. Yet President Hassan continues to act as if Somalia were a centralized state, consolidating power and bypassing legal frameworks to entrench loyalists.

The consequences of this overreach are dire. With federalism under siege, local legitimacy eroded, and national consensus elusive, Al-Shabaab has swiftly capitalized. The group has intensified its territorial gains in central Somalia to the gates of Mogadishu, seizing security vacuums while the federal government remains consumed by internal power struggles. Meanwhile, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is being scaled back and replaced by the African Union Somalia Support Mission (AUSSOM), leaving even greater responsibility in the hands of a government that appears politically paralyzed and institutionally fractured.

“The so-called national consultation died inside Villa Somalia,” lamented a senior government source. “It was never about dialogue—it was about rubber-stamping the president’s agenda under the guise of consensus.”

Public Outcry and the Legitimacy Crisis

From Mogadishu to Beledweyne to Kismayo, public frustration has boiled over into anger. Civil society leaders, legal experts, youth activists, and religious elders are increasingly unified in their demand for a new direction—one rooted in constitutionalism, transparency, and genuine federal dialogue.

A growing number of former diplomats and officials are also calling for a peaceful constitutional reset to steer Somalia away from collapse. The proposition gaining traction is the peaceful resignation or removal of President Hassan Sheikh and the installation of a neutral, technocratic transitional president to lead the nation until scheduled elections in May 2026.

“The situation has reached critical mass,” said a retired Somali ambassador. “Somalia needs a transitional figure—untainted by party politics, respected across the professional society, free from consideration of clan factor and capable of restoring institutional integrity.”

Will Puntland and the Opposition Hold the Line?

As the legitimacy of Villa Somalia’s consultative process lies in ruins, many now turn to Puntland’s President Said Deni and Jubaland’s President Madobe—leaders whose mandates remain constitutionally intact. Both have become de facto guardians of Somalia’s embattled federalism.

There is also growing pressure on national opposition parties to stand firm and reject any process that involves unelected state leaders propped up by Villa Somalia. Many fear that any engagement with such a forum would serve only to validate a structure that undermines democracy and entrenches autocracy.

“I truly hope President Deni and the opposition parties will refuse to join any process that includes illegitimate state leaders,” said a Mogadishu-based analyst. “To do otherwise would legitimize the very problem they’re trying to solve.”

Somalis across the political divide increasingly view the current crisis as one of national survival. Civil society groups have repeatedly emphasized that the nation cannot be rebuilt on a foundation of political manipulation, exclusion, and impunity.

 The Bottom Line: A Meeting That Was Never Meant to Succeed

As the shadows deepen over Somalia’s democratic future, the question is no longer whether Villa Somalia’s process has failed—it has—but whether there is still time to rescue the republic from further decay. With every passing week, the federal model weakens, the rule of law fades, and public trust deteriorates.

What started as a high-stakes diplomatic initiative—driven by American and British concern over Somalia’s growing fragmentation—has instead become a cautionary tale in presidential overreach and elite exclusion.

“The meeting died inside Villa Somalia,” one government insider admitted. “It was never really about consultation. It was about control.”

As Somalia teeters between reform and regression, the decisions made—or not made—over the coming weeks could shape the country’s trajectory for years to come. With Al-Shabaab lurking, international patience thinning, and public trust fraying, the stakes could not be higher.

What Somalia urgently requires is not another flawed conference, but a bold, inclusive, and legal transition. A government of integrity, not convenience. A leadership of consensus, not coercion.

“No self-respecting constitutionalist should entertain this charade,” stated a civil society leader in Garowe. “The very survival of the federal system depends on rejecting illegitimacy in all its forms.”

The eyes of the world remain fixed on Somalia. But more crucially, so do the eyes of its own people—watching, waiting, and demanding change.

Their message is unmistakable:
Enough is enough, we want transitional President.

Mohamed A Yasin
Email: moyasin680@gmail.com