Mogadishu (WDN) – The political crises currently engulfing Southwest State, Hirshabelle, and Galmudug did not emerge overnight. The roots of today’s instability can be traced back to a series of decisions made by the leaders of these federal member states during the past four years.
The presidents of the three administrations were among the strongest supporters of former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s controversial political agenda. They backed constitutional changes that lacked broad national consultation, supported electoral structures rejected by key political stakeholders, and endorsed political initiatives that many opposition figures described as unilateral and divisive.
For years, these leaders stood firmly behind policies that deepened Somalia’s political polarization. They applauded decisions that were challenged by opposition groups and several federal member states, often choosing political loyalty over consensus-building and institutional legitimacy. Rather than defending the autonomy of their respective administrations, the three leaders aligned themselves closely with Villa Somalia, hoping that political loyalty would secure their own futures.
Their support extended beyond constitutional disputes. When Jubaland rejected what it viewed as unconstitutional political arrangements and proceeded with its own electoral process, the leaders of Southwest State, Hirshabelle, and Galmudug largely sided with the federal government. When tensions escalated between Mogadishu and Jubaland, they continued to support federal policies despite growing concerns about the country’s political trajectory.
The political alignment was driven by expectations that they would remain favored candidates within the ruling political establishment. The assumption was that loyalty would be rewarded when the time came to determine future leadership in the federal member states.
However, Somalia’s political landscape has shifted dramatically. As electoral calculations evolved, reports began circulating that alternative candidates were being positioned to replace the very leaders who had spent years supporting the federal government’s agenda. What many viewed as a political partnership increasingly appeared to be a relationship built on convenience rather than long-term commitment.
Nowhere is this more visible than in Southwest State. Baydhabo has become a focal point of political confrontation, with recurring tensions surrounding the administration’s future leadership and the role of federal authorities in regional affairs. Competing political factions continue to dispute the legitimacy of various political processes, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and instability.
Galmudug and Hirshabelle face similar challenges. Political disagreements over leadership transitions, electoral arrangements, and federal involvement have created growing tensions that many fear could further destabilize the regions if left unresolved.
At the national level, concerns are also mounting over planned opposition demonstrations in Mogadishu and the broader dispute surrounding political legitimacy and governance. The absence of a widely accepted political settlement has left Somalia facing one of its most uncertain periods in recent years.
The country’s current predicament is the result of a prolonged failure to build consensus among the federal government, federal member states, opposition groups, and other key stakeholders. Without such consensus, they warn, political institutions become vulnerable to disputes over legitimacy, authority, and representation.
The lesson emerging from Southwest State, Hirshabelle, and Galmudug is a stark one: political alliances built on short-term calculations often prove fragile when power dynamics change. All eyes are on these three federal member states. The decisions made in the coming months could have profound implications not only for their own political futures but also for the future of Somalia’s federal system itself.
As tensions continue to rise, calls are growing for dialogue, compromise, and an inclusive political settlement capable of restoring confidence in the country’s institutions and preventing further fragmentation of an already fragile political landscape. This version retains the political argument while presenting it in a more professional, coherent, and publication-style journalistic format.
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