By Prof. Abdinasir Ali Osman

The Unfulfilled Promise of Federalism Amidst Core Leadership Conflicts and Limited NCC Progress

Introduction

Somalia’s protracted state-building endeavor, despite decades of international engagement, remains critically undermined by deeply entrenched internal contradictions. The concluded May 8, 2025, National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in Mogadishu, intended as a pivotal forum for national cohesion, starkly illuminated the widening fissures within the federal framework. While the meeting yielded agreements on enhanced security coordination, electoral process acceleration, and the formal recognition of SSC-Khatumo as a federal member state, these outcomes were significantly overshadowed by the conspicuous absence of key Federal Member States (FMS)—Puntland and Jubaland—due to unresolved political disputes with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), particularly over constitutional amendments and electoral processes.

This investigative analysis focuses on the internal drivers of this systemic fragility, meticulously examining the historical trajectory of the NCC, dissecting the multifaceted challenges and inherent setbacks that impede genuine national unity, and critically analyzing the nexus of elite incentives, clan-based power dynamics, and, most importantly, the deeply rooted disagreements over power-sharing, resource allocation, and regional status that fuel the escalating conflicts between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS), state-building efforts, and regional stability, largely attributable to the actions and inactions of the FGS leadership, especially the Presidency.

The central argument posits that these deeply embedded internal factors, operating within a flawed federal framework, are the primary impediments to establishing a cohesive, functional, and legitimate Somali state, and that the current leadership bears a significant responsibility for the prevailing political instability, lack of progress, and insecurity, directly stemming from their inability to effectively manage these fundamental internal conflicts, thus jeopardizing hard-won gains and diverting crucial resources.

1. The NCC: A History of Ambition Undermined by Core FGS-FMS Conflicts and their Destructive Ramifications, Despite Recent Pledges

Established as a mechanism for fostering dialogue and consensus between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS), the NCC’s history is a chronicle of ambition consistently undermined by internal discord and, crucially, the unresolved conflicts between the FGS and the FMS over foundational issues, the continuation of which carries severe consequences, even in the face of recent pledges of cooperation.

• Early Aspirations and Foundational Fault Lines with Grave Implications: The NCC’s early focus on indirect elections and the National Security Architecture (NSArch) hinted at a potential for collaborative governance. However, the inherent ambiguities within the 2012 Provisional Constitution regarding the distribution of powers—particularly concerning foreign policy, natural resources, and local governance—laid the groundwork for future contention and became a primary source of conflict between the FGS and the regions, actions by the FGS that risk undermining the very federal system it purports to uphold.
• Landmark Agreements Overshadowed by Resource and Power Disputes with Dire Outcomes: The May 2023 agreement on transitioning to a one-person, one-vote system represented a significant, albeit aspirational, milestone. Yet, this progress was consistently threatened by underlying disagreements over the allocation of international aid and other resources, with FMS often feeling marginalized and prompting calls for greater autonomy, directly challenging the FGS’s authority and potentially stoking clan tensions if perceived as inequitable. The recent NCC meeting, while pledging support for security and elections, failed to bridge these fundamental divides.
• Enduring Challenges and Systemic Weaknesses: Manifestations of Unresolved Internal Conflicts with Far-Reaching Consequences

Despite its intended purpose, the NCC has consistently grappled with a confluence of systemic weaknesses and politically charged challenges that are, in large part, a direct consequence of the fundamental conflicts between the FGS and the FMS, carrying substantial negative repercussions.

• The Fractured Federal Framework and Constitutional Deficiencies Undermining Order: The bedrock of the NCC’s mandate, the 2012 Provisional Constitution, suffers from critical ambiguities regarding the division of powers, resource allocation, and dispute resolution mechanisms. This lack of clarity has been actively perpetuated and exploited by leaders on both the federal and regional levels, hindering the development of mutually agreed-upon national frameworks and exacerbating the core power-sharing disputes, thereby undermining the fragile constitutional order. The absence of a robust and impartial judiciary to arbitrate these disputes further exacerbates the climate of mistrust, often fueled by the perceived bias and political interference of the ruling elite in Mogadishu.
• The Entrenched Legacy of Clan-Based Politics and its Intertwined Conflicts Weakening Counter-Terrorism: The persistent influence of the 4.5 clan-based power-sharing formula represents a fundamental impediment to genuine national unity and effective intergovernmental cooperation. This system exacerbates the existing conflicts over power-sharing and resource allocation, as these issues often become entangled with clan dynamics and historical grievances, further complicating the NCC’s ability to find common ground and potentially diverting resources from the crucial fight against Al-Shabaab.
• The Erosion of Trust and the Specter of Unilateralism Under Federal Auspices Creating Governance Vacuums: The repeated boycotts by key FMS, particularly Puntland and Jubaland, are not isolated incidents but rather symptomatic of a deeper crisis of confidence in the FGS’s commitment to genuine federalism and inclusive governance. Accusations of unilateral decision-making, particularly regarding regions like Mogadishu, and perceived attempts by the central government, under the leadership of the President, to encroach upon the autonomy of the FMS have fueled resentment and undermined the NCC’s legitimacy as a neutral and collaborative space, potentially creating governance vacuums those other actors, including Al-Shabaab, could exploit.
• The NCC in Limbo: Outcomes Nullified by Leadership Exclusion and the Persistence of Core Conflicts Jeopardizing Gains

The concluded May 8, 2025, NCC meeting in Mogadishu, marked by the absence of Puntland and the exclusion of Jubaland, starkly exemplifies the deep-seated fractures within Somalia’s federal system, directly attributable to the unresolved conflicts between the FGS and these key FMS. While the meeting produced agreements on security, elections, and the recognition of SSC-Khatumo, the lack of inclusivity, stemming from the perceived marginalization and disregard for regional concerns by the federal center on issues of power and resources, casts a long shadow over these pronouncements, potentially jeopardizing the hard-won gains of the past decade. The rejection of the NCC’s outcomes by Jubaland underscores the deep divisions and competing narratives that persist, highlighting the council’s diminished capacity to forge genuine national consensus due to the exclusionary practices and the FGS’s inability to address the fundamental conflicts underlying the federal system.

• The Heavy Burden of Internal Leadership: Failure to Resolve Core Conflicts and the Escalating Risk of Violence and Regional Conflagration

The persistent challenges facing the NCC and Somalia’s broader state-building project are inextricably linked to the failures of its political elites, particularly within the FGS, to address the fundamental conflicts over power-sharing, resource allocation, and regional status. The prioritization of central authority over genuine power devolution, coupled with perceived inequitable distribution of resources, fuels the ongoing disputes and undermines any genuine commitment to collaborative governance, potentially escalating into armed clashes between FGS and FMS forces. The President, entrusted with the responsibility of leading the nation towards a better future, bears a significant burden for the current political instability and the NCC’s ineffectiveness, stemming from a perceived failure to foster trust and address the legitimate grievances of the FMS regarding their role and rights within the federal framework, actions that could trigger a wider conflagration in the region and be exploited by Al-Shabaab.

Conclusion: Reclaiming Leadership by Addressing Core FGS-FMS Conflicts for a Sustainable Federal Future

The trajectory of the NCC, even with its recent pledges of cooperation, serves as a stark indicator of the deep-seated internal challenges, directly attributable to the unresolved conflicts between the FGS and FMS, that continue to plague the nation’s quest for a stable and unified federal state. The historical context, persistent challenges, and the outcomes of recent meetings underscore the urgent need for a fundamental shift in governance practices and, most importantly, a demonstrable commitment from the current leadership, particularly within the FGS, to prioritize genuine dialogue and address the core conflicts over power-sharing, resource allocation, and regional status that are fracturing the nation and risking widespread violence.

Meaningful progress necessitates a truly inclusive and unconditional dialogue that brings together all stakeholders to resolve these fundamental issues, fostering a sense of equity and mutual respect within the federal framework. Ultimately, the future of Somalia’s federal project hinges on the willingness of its political elite, most notably the President and the leadership of the FGS, to transcend entrenched power struggles, abandon unilateral approaches, and embrace a truly collaborative and inclusive model of governance that prioritizes the long-term stability and unity of the Somali nation by resolving the core conflicts that divide it, thereby preventing further undermining of federalism, state-building, and the potential for broader regional instability.

Prof. Abdinasir Ali Osman
Email:  ipi2024@hotmail.com