By Mohamed Fatah

What’s unfolding in Las Anod under the banner of a Khatumo-Maakhir union is neither credible nor sustainable. The process lacks legitimacy, transparency, and broad-based support. It does not meet the threshold of a genuine federal initiative—and should be recognized as such. 

Let’s be clear: this is not state-building. It is a politically driven maneuver, hastily assembled to serve short-term agendas in Villa Somalia, not the long-term needs of the people of Sanaag, Sool, or Ceyn.

The Position of the Sanaag Communities is Firm

In the past, there may have been room for dialogue. But recent events have significantly shifted the landscape. The Warsangali leadership, elders, and communities have expressed clear, unified opposition to this effort. The sentiment in Sanaag and Bari is unambiguous:

That bond is based on decades of shared governance, security cooperation, and political inclusion. The approach taken by Khatumo’s leadership—excluding our elders, imposing unilateral terms, and ignoring established legitimacy—has only hardened our position.

We do not recognize this initiative, nor do we recognize the individuals claiming to speak on our behalf in Las Anod. They were not selected by our Sultan, not endorsed by our traditional leaders, and do not carry the consent of the community.

An Unbalanced and Premature Proposal

The offer put forward by Khatumo—34 seats for Warsangali, 40 for themselves, and a Khatumo-led presidency with Las Anod as the capital—was not a serious basis for partnership. It was a proposal that ignored equity, process, and respect.

Moreover, the fact that Warsangali fighters stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Khatumo during the Las Anod conflict, only to now be disrespected and insulted, has left deep disappointment. Trust has eroded—and rebuilding it will not be possible under current leadership or terms.

This is not about rejection for its own sake. It is about principle. Any federal project must begin with consent, inclusion, and mutual respect. None of those standards have been met here.

International and Regional Partners Share These Concerns

Over the past two weeks, I’ve held discussions with international diplomats, regional officials, and partners across the Horn of Africa. Their views are consistent: what is happening in Las Anod is viewed as rushed, politically motivated, and lacking in legitimacy.

Many have already engaged directly with Warsangali elders and leadership. They understand the depth of opposition on the ground and the risks of fueling further fragmentation.

This isn’t just a local disagreement—it has broader implications. It undermines faith in Somalia’s federal process, fuels clan tensions, and distracts from national priorities.

The Lessons of Hirshabelle Should Not Be Ignored

The formation of Hirshabelle offers a cautionary example. It was assembled quickly, without adequate buy-in, and today, it suffers from chronic instability and internal conflict. The two communities that were forced into a union are now openly at odds.

If Somalia repeats that mistake in Sanaag, Sool, and Ceyn, the outcome will be the same—or worse.

Villa Somalia’s Political Calculus Is Transparent

Credible sources within Villa Somalia confirm what many already suspect: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has no genuine intention of recognizing a new state. The real goal is political—to weaken Puntland and Jubaland, disrupt regional cohesion, and buy time for a possible term extension beyond 2026.

We urge Khatumo leaders, and the federal government to abandon these tactics. The cost of short-term maneuvering is long-term instability.

Warsangali’s Position Is Not Up for Negotiation

To be clear: the Warsangali community will not participate in this project. Not now. Not under these conditions. And not with the current political actors in place.

We have made our position known—publicly and privately—and there is no ambiguity. This initiative is not welcome, and it will not move forward with our participation.

If, in the future, there is a serious conversation about the structure of a Northeast Federal Member State, it must be:

1) Built on equal partnership
2) Designed with consensus, not coercion
3) Led by credible community representatives
4) And considered only after the 2026 elections, under new national leadership

Until then, there is nothing to discuss.

Somalia Needs Real Statecraft, Not Political Theater

Somalia is at a fragile crossroads. What we need are functional institutions, reliable leadership, and coherent federalism. We do not need political theater designed to manufacture artificial states in the middle of unresolved conflicts.

This initiative may appear active on the surface—but it has no roots, no mandate, and no path forward. It is, in all respects, dead on arrival.

Mohamed Fatah
Email: mabshir47@outlook.com
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Mohamed Fatah is a Somali-American  executive with expertise in government affairs, foreign policy, national security, regulatory and financial crimes compliance. Mr. Fatah had a distinguished career in the U.S. Government advising senior policymakers, and congressional leaders.