By Djama Mahamoud Ali

Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a pattern of executive actions that have systematically undermined federalism, regional autonomy, and constitutional governance have become normal. This pattern include interference in South West State elections, the coerced resignation of Galmudug’s president, military confrontation with Jubaland, the deployment of forces against Puntland, and unilateral constitutional changes. this analysis assesses the likely trajectory of Somalia’s fragile statehood. The cumulative effect of these actions, combined with the opposition’s unified rejection of the president’s agenda, points toward a deepening political fragmentation that risks reversing the modest gains achieved since the establishment of the federal system in 2012.

Since his re-election in 2022, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has pursued an ambitious agenda of centralizing authority in Mogadishu. While framed as state-building and democratic reform, this agenda has precipitated a profound crisis in Somalia’s federal system. The President’s approach, characterized by unilateral actions against federal member states contested constitutional amendments, and the prioritization of political consolidation over counterterrorism, has generated unprecedented resistance from regional administrations and opposition coalitions.

This paper assesses the fate of Somalia by examining a series of interconnected crises that, together, threaten the country’s political cohesion.

 A Pattern of Electoral Manipulation

The President’s conduct in South West State established a troubling template for federal intervention in regional affairs. When the President of the South West State was ousted, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appointed an interim president, a move that violated both the federal constitution and the South West State’s own governing charter. More significantly, he proceeded to appoint the very individual who would win the pre-fixed election he was organizing in Baydhabo. As foreseen Aden Madobe became the President of the South West State.

The pattern established in South West State was replicated in Galmudug, where President Mohamud forced the sitting president to resign and subsequently appointed his replacement. This intervention, like that in South West State, violated the principles of federal autonomy enshrined in Somalia’s provisional constitution. The President’s willingness to unilaterally remove and replace regional leaders demonstrates a fundamental disregard for the federal structure that was designed to prevent the concentration of power in Mogadishu.

The cumulative effect of these interventions has been the erosion of trust between the federal government and federal member states. As one analysis noted, “President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s ambitious drive to centralize authority has collided with the entrenched realities of Somalia’s decentralized political landscape.”

To control the outcome of the elections, Hassan Sh. is employing a classic “stick and carrot” strategy: 

• The stick is the use of military force and federal security pressure to coerce federal member states into compliance. This includes interventions such as ousting sitting administrations, imposing interim appointments, and direct assaults to overturn regional leaders who resist his agenda, as seen in South West State, Galmudug, and the attempted move against Jubaland.

• The carrot is the use of financial inducements and political appointments to co-opt the opposition. By offering money, positions, or favorable electoral terms, he seeks to neutralize resistance and secure acquiescence from rival candidates and power brokers without open confrontation.

Together, these two tactics are designed to eliminate genuine competition and engineer a political environment in which his preferred outcome in Baydhabo and elsewhere is effectively predetermined

 Military Failure and Regional Resistance

The most dramatic illustration of the President’s confrontational approach came in Jubaland. When Jubaland proceeded with its presidential election in early 2024, defying Mogadishu, the federal government declared the re-election of Ahmed Madobe il-legal. The standoff escalated dramatically: the federal government issued an arrest warrant for Madobe, accused him of collaborating with Al-Shabaab, and launched a military operation in the Ras Kamboni area in an attempt to take control of Kismayo.

The military operation ended in failure, with federal troops retreating across the Kenyan border. Mogadishu subsequently imposed an air blockade on Kismayo. Jubaland further accused President Mohamud of orchestrating coordinated attacks on the towns of Balad Hawo and Doolow in the Gedo region, warning that the federal government’s actions threaten to destabilize the country’s fragile security landscape as Al-Shabaab militants make territorial gains. Jubaland’s administration described the attacks as a deliberate attempt to spark a broader conflict in the region and declared its commitment to resisting any illegitimate plans by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

The military defeat in Jubaland was a significant blow to the President’s authority. By late 2025, the confrontation had forced a retreat to foreign-mediated dialogue, with Kenya brokering talks between Hassan Sheikh and Madobe. This marked a public acknowledgment that unilateral governance has failed.

 From Neglect to Military Confrontation

The relationship between the federal government and Puntland has deteriorated to the point of near-severance. This crisis has two interrelated dimensions: the federal government’s refusal to support Puntland’s counterterrorism efforts, and the President’s current military buildup aimed at overthrowing the Puntland administration.

While Puntland has been engaged in Operation Hilaac, a months-long offensive against ISIS militants in the Al Miskaad mountains, the federal government has been accused of undermining rather than supporting these efforts. Puntland’s Ministry of Information stated: “Somali Federal Government is destabilizing peace in Puntland state of Somalia causing unrest while Puntland state is waging war against ISIS and Al Shabaab. Hasan sheikh is trying to prevent Puntland victory and defeat international Terrorists.”

Documented evidence supports these accusations. The federal government reportedly invested hundreds of thousands of US Dollars in arming militias to destabilize Puntland. These funds were diverted from counter-terrorism to fuel clan conflicts in one of Somalia’s most stable regions. Furthermore, the federal government allegedly refused clearance for planes seeking to transport Puntland’s wounded soldiers, effectively denying medical evacuation for forces fighting ISIS.

The President is currently massing military forces against Puntland in an attempt to overthrow State President Said Abdullahi Deni. This follows Puntland’s unprecedented declaration of administrative independence in response to the March 2024 constitutional amendments. Since then, Puntland has suspended cooperation with the federal government.

Centralization Disguised as Reform

The underlying driver of these regional confrontations has been the President’s push for constitutional amendments. In March 2024, the federal government rushed through constitutional changes that were widely perceived as a move to concentrate power in Villa Somalia and were enacted without national consensus.

The amendments were swiftly rejected by Puntland and Jubaland as well as the opposition Somali Salvation Forum, who accused President Hassan of corruption, human rights abuses, and unconstitutional amendments that expanded presidential powers. Critics argue the reforms were rushed and not inclusive, with Puntland and Jubaland insisting that the process did not follow the proper path.

President Mohamud has defended the amendments, arguing that lawmakers had the authority to amend agreements reached with federal member states. The constitution is not the Quran, he stated. However, opponents contend the reforms were designed to consolidate executive dominance ahead of elections rather than strengthen democracy.

Conclusion

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s tenure has been characterized by a consistent pattern of executive overreach: manipulating elections in South West State, forcing the resignation of Galmudug’s president, launching a failed military campaign against Jubaland, massing forces against Puntland while withholding support for its counterterrorism efforts, and pushing through constitutional amendments without national consensus. These actions have unified the opposition and alienated federal member states to an unprecedented degree.

The fate of Somalia hangs in the balance. If the President continues on his current path, the country faces the prospect of deepening fragmentation, security deterioration, and constitutional crisis. A return to the chaos of the 1990s, as Puntland’s Vice President warned, is a real possibility. Alternatively, if the President embraces genuine consensus politics and accepts a recalibration of federal power, Somalia may yet salvage its fragile state-building project.

The choice, as one analysis put it, is between “genuine recalibration of federal power and embrace consensus politics” or “presiding over the irreversible disintegration” of the nation. The coming months will be decisive in determining which path Somalia takes.

Djama Mahamoud Ali
Email: djama_m@yahoo.om