By Mohamed A Yasin

It seems the sun hasn’t been shining on Somalia lately. If anything, it’s been hidden behind a thick cloud of political fragmentation and security woes, all worsened by the U.S. deciding to cut off its financial lifeline. And let me tell you, when the U.S. pulls the plug on Somalia’s aid—humanitarian, military, you name it—the nation feels it like an unexpected slap in the face.

Picture this: the U.S. has suspended funding for everything from healthcare programs to military support, with one of the biggest casualties being the elite Danab forces. If you’re wondering how that will affect Somalia’s already fragile security situation, you don’t have to be a psychic to see that things are about to get a whole lot worse.

Let’s break this down:

1) Humanitarian Aid in Freefall: A lot of Somalis rely on U.S.-funded programs for food, healthcare, and education—especially in regions plagued by conflict and drought. But now, those essential services are hanging by a thread. And as if that wasn’t enough, there’s also the internal displacement crisis that’s been bubbling for years. The poor governance in the areas the FGS controls only adds fuel to the fire.

2) Military Support: A Crumbling Shield: The Danab forces—trained by the U.S. to tackle Al-Shabaab—are now underfunded, and that’s bad news for a country already on the defensive. As Al-Shabaab ups its game, the already-weakened Somali National Army (SNA) can hardly keep up, not to mention the fact that the African Union’s ATMIS mission could soon be strapped for cash, too.

3) Economic Collapse Looms: No money for development projects or job creation programs? Check. That’s going to make it much harder for Somalia’s crisis-stricken regions to get back on their feet. And with unemployment and displacement at all-time highs, the situation’s already grim enough without adding more economic instability.

Now, let’s talk about the political scene—a masterpiece of dysfunction. The FGS, once a beacon of hope, has lost control over most of the Federal Member States (FMS), and the ones left are either in limbo or actively fighting the government. Take South West State, for example: it’s officially given the FGS the cold shoulder and joined forces with Puntland and Jubaland. That leaves President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration looking like a king in a decaying palace, holding onto power in just a few rooms while the rest of the house falls apart.

The Council of Ministers’ meeting on March 6, 2025, should’ve been a turning point. People hoped they’d come up with a plan to reunify the country and get things back on track. But nope. Instead, the big announcement was a crackdown on social media users who dared to question the government’s narrative. Because clearly, silencing dissent will solve all of Somalia’s problems, right?

If that wasn’t enough, President Hassan’s next move was like a plot twist in a bad soap opera. He gave the Ethiopian Air Force the green light to bomb parts of Somalia—including Hirshabelle—on behalf of the FGS. This is the same Ethiopia that Hassan Sheikh had previously condemned as Somalia’s biggest threat, even going so far as to rally the masses in mosques against its so-called expansionist ambitions. Talk about a change of heart! But now, Ethiopia’s military is calling the shots in Somalia’s airspace, which has some people worried that this might be part of a bigger play for control over Somalia’s ports and economy.

And let’s not forget the tribal militias. These poor guys were armed by the government to fight alongside the SNA, but instead of marching to victory, they’re bogged down by low morale, fatigue, and the crushing weight of poor leadership and corruption in the logistical chain. Can you blame them for feeling disillusioned? After all, being away from your family since 2022 is no walk in the park, especially when you’re being sent to fight with little hope of real success. In fact, some of these militias have turned their weapons on each other, following tribal lines. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Al-Shabaab is playing the long game—offering these militias amnesty, the chance to be with their families, and the option to keep their weapons. It’s an offer that, let’s be honest, many can’t refuse.

On top of this, these tribal militias, once driven by a sense of duty and loyalty, have faced immense fatigue. They’ve been living in constant combat since 2022, a long time to be away from family, friends, and a sense of normalcy. And let’s not forget the leadership failures they’ve witnessed firsthand. The logistical supply chains are as corrupt as they come, with little to no resources actually reaching the front lines. So it’s no surprise that these fighters are now looking for any way out. When Al-Shabaab offers them a chance to return home, keep their weapons, and be with their families, it’s a tempting offer. Many can’t ignore it, and understandably, it’s starting to fracture the unity of those once called upon to defend the nation.

So here we are, watching as Somalia teeters on the edge. With three states already lost to chaos and the others in turmoil, it’s hard to imagine the FGS regaining control anytime soon. As Omar Mahmood, a researcher based in Nairobi, bluntly put it, “Somalia may soon exist only on maps.”

The question remains: will President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reverse his course and listen to the voices urging dialogue, or will he double down on his mission to centralize power? His allies, including the U.S. and Turkey, are still holding out hope, but trust is running thin. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continues to capitalize on the government’s disarray, strengthening its grip on the country.

As the dust settles and the sun dips behind the clouds in Mogadishu, one thing is clear: Somalia’s future is uncertain. Will it ever regain its vision of federalism, or will President Hassan Sheikh be remembered as the one who watched it all fall apart? Only time—and perhaps the streets of Baidoa, Garowe, and Kismayo—will tell.

Mohamed A Yasin
Email: moyasin680@gmail.com