By Ahmed A. Yusuf

Two months after taking the oath of office in May 2022, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud abruptly announced a campaign to eradicate Al-Shabaab. This sudden declaration caught politicians, civil society, and even Somalia’s Somali National Army (SNA) off guard. In military tradition, launching a war requires meticulous preparation—something that was glaringly absent in Hassan Sheikh’s rushed approach.

What made this move even more questionable was the president’s prior rhetoric about Somalia’s security forces. Before assuming office, he and his allies repeatedly disparaged the 20,000-strong army built by his predecessor, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, frequently referring to them as mere militias. This deliberate undermining of the national security apparatus sowed confusion and distrust at a time when unity was paramount. As one senior military officer put it, “You cannot destroy the foundation of your army and expect them to fight with confidence.”

A particularly egregious example of Hassan Sheikh’s recklessness was his handling of the 6,000 Somali soldiers trained in Eritrea. These troops had completed their training and were awaiting deployment back home when Hassan Sheikh, during his campaign, propagated false claims that they had been sold to Eritrea and were being used in Ethiopia’s Tigray war. He even engaged directly with the soldiers’ parents, spreading misinformation that their children had perished in battle. His objective was clear—to stoke public outrage and incite demonstrations against President Farmaajo’s administration. A mother of one of the soldiers lamented, “He played with our emotions, and now he expects our sons to fight for him?”

During his first term, President Hassan was notorious for telling the army they had a choice—either accept their $100 salary or leave. By the end of his tenure, army salaries were in arrears for 13 months. In contrast, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo started from scratch to build a strong and reliable fighting force. He eradicated ghost soldiers by introducing a biometric system and successfully doubled their salaries from $100 to $200. Additionally, he mandated that security forces should be the first to get paid every month, followed by civil servants and lastly, politicians.

President Hassan’s 2022/2023 campaign against Al-Shabaab ended in utter defeat and disgrace. The army and tribal militias he equipped in Hirshabelle and Galmudug Federal Member States were annihilated, and their military equipment was seized by Al-Shabaab. Security experts believe that Al-Shabaab will no longer need to procure weapons in the near future, as they have forcibly confiscated most of the arms that the international community had been supplying to Somalia for over a decade. One former intelligence officer remarked, “Somalia’s enemies no longer need to smuggle arms; Hassan has armed them for free.”

After his defeat at the front, President Hassan returned to Mogadishu. Instead of reassessing his strategy and uniting the country, he embarked on yet another divisive campaign. Without any consultation, he unilaterally drafted his own constitution to replace the widely agreed-upon Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC). This illegitimate action fractured the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), prompting Jubaland and Puntland to sever ties with Mogadishu.

Throughout 2024, while President Hassan focused on tearing apart the fabric that held the nation together, Al-Shabaab, aware of how demoralized the Somali National Army (SNA) had become and how the armed militias turned their weapons against each other and on their neighboring clans, recruited thousands of unemployed youths into their ranks. They also developed a new, more lethal strategy of war. In February 2025, Al-Shabaab launched attacks from multiple fronts, knowing that the government, with its shattered forces, could not effectively fight on all fronts at once. The SNA had been decimated, and the remaining troops were completely demoralized, making them ill-prepared to face this growing threat.

As expected, Al-Shabaab forces have now begun bombarding some of Mogadishu’s most secure locations, including the airport and surrounding areas. In response to the escalating violence, all international airlines, including Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways, have suspended their flights to Mogadishu’s Aden Adde International Airport. This marks a significant blow to the capital’s connectivity and international relations. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab has opened multiple fronts in Lower Shabelle, in addition to their already-established presence in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. They have now advanced to the gates of Mogadishu, effectively encircling the capital on both sides. A security analyst observed, “The capital has never been this vulnerable since the fall of Siad Barre.”

Amidst this crisis, Puntland Federal Member State (FMS) has managed to achieve a significant victory. Since January 2025, Puntland launched a well-planned and independent campaign to eradicate ISIS from the rugged Bari Mountains, a terrain akin to Afghanistan’s mountains. Despite the harsh, rugged environment and the lack of support from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), Puntland forces were able to decisively defeat ISIS. The defeat of ISIS in this area is a major achievement for Puntland, showcasing their ability to take control of their security situation and deliver results where the federal government has faltered. One military commander in Puntland stated, “We rely on action, not rhetoric. Puntland does not wait for Mogadishu to secure its people.”

In stark contrast, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s actions—often un-consulted and authoritarian—have only exacerbated the situation, allowing Al-Shabaab to advance on multiple fronts and jeopardizing the country’s future. His failure to prepare adequately for the national security challenges and his divisive approach have handed over territory and control to extremists. Instead of charting a course toward stability, his actions have inadvertently handed Somalia over to Al-Shabaab on a silver platter.

To further exacerbate the situation, as President Hassan’s forces continued to crumble, he resorted to desperate measures. Facing a severe shortage of trained combat forces and the inability to maintain sufficient front-line soldiers, the president made the alarming decision to deploy the Custodial Corps—the prison service—into the battlefronts of Lower Shabelle. This force, which is primarily responsible for maintaining prisons and overseeing prisoners, was completely untrained and unequipped for combat. The Custodial Corps’ deployment reflected the desperation and disorganization within the Somali government’s security apparatus. A former military trainer remarked, “Sending prison guards to the frontlines? That is a strategy of despair, not leadership.”

The failure of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government in addressing the growing security crisis has highlighted his inability to lead effectively. His decisions have further undermined the stability of Somalia, leaving the country in an ever-deepening state of chaos. In stark contrast. While Hassan’s failures have weakened national unity and security, President Said Dani’s strategic foresight and meticulous planning for the eradication of ISIS from the Bari Mountains have not only proven successful but also demonstrated the importance of good governance. A senior Puntland official summarized it best: “Leadership is not about speeches and promises; it is about delivering security and stability.”

The stark difference between the failures of Hassan Sheikh and the success of Dani further underscores the need for strong leadership at all levels of government. With a divided federal structure and ongoing national security challenges, it is becoming increasingly clear that Somalia’s future rests not on the whims of an embattled president in Mogadishu but on the resolute leadership demonstrated by regional figures like President Dani, who continue to rise above the chaos and defend their people.

Ahmed A. Yusuf
Email: aayuusuf44@gmail.com