By Abdiqani H Abdi

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is facing growing criticism for what observers describe as a systematic campaign to dismantle Somalia’s fragile federal structure and centralize power in Villa Somalia. The president is aggressively pursuing a totalitarian grip on authority, undermining regional administrations and eroding the foundations of federalism laid out in the Provisional Federal Constitution.

A central casualty in this effort has been the National Consultative Council (NCC)—once a vital forum for dialogue and coordination between the federal government and Federal Member States (FMS). The NCC has effectively ceased to function, a result many attributes to deliberate sabotage by Hassan’s administration. Once a symbol of cooperative federalism, the council has now become irrelevant under a presidency increasingly intolerant of dissent.

The president’s latest focus is the northeast of the country, particularly Puntland, where a new phase of interference is underway. While framed in the language of security and peacekeeping, local leaders and political analysts argue the true objective is destabilization. Through strategic disruptions and covert operations, Villa Somalia appears intent on weakening Puntland’s internal stability and undermining its autonomy.

This pattern of behavior is not isolated but part of a broader strategy to consolidate power by destabilizing peaceful, functioning regions that resist Villa Somalia’s overreach.

A dangerous pattern of political and military provocation is emerging in northeastern Somalia, as Puntland accuses President Hassan of orchestrating deliberate efforts to destabilize key regions under its jurisdiction. Recent flashpoints include an armed incursion into Shaxda District in the Karkaar region on May 23, 2025, by SSC-Khatumo police forces, and a separate unprovoked campaign in Erigavo, allegedly spearheaded by Puntland’s former Deputy President.

The Shaxda incursion was initially framed by SSC-Khatumo officials as a routine policing operation within what they claimed was their jurisdiction. Puntland authorities, however, responded swiftly, ejecting the forces and reasserting full control over the area. The Puntland Police Command later issued a statement labeling the Khatumo units as “militia” and warned against further encroachments.

Puntland officials now view this incident as part of a broader, calculated campaign by Villa Somalia to destabilize Puntland and undermine its territorial integrity. President Hassan is accused of deploying political proxies to incite unrest in regions historically aligned with Puntland, under the guise of administrative or constitutional maneuvers.

Among those implicated in this campaign are Hon. Abdi Qowdhan Warsame, Hon. Abdullahi Warsame Bidhaan, Senator Abdillahi Suldaan Mohammed, SSC-Khatumo leader President Firdhiye Federal Police Commander Asad Osman Diano, former Puntland Vice President Ahmed Elmi Osman, and former Minister of Planning Jamal Mohamed Hassan. These figures are widely viewed in Puntland as political operatives serving Villa Somalia’s agenda rather than representing their constituents. Despite their efforts, many within SSC communities have rejected being used as tools to undermine Puntland’s autonomy, viewing these figures as political spoilers.

Acting under the directive of former Puntland Security Force (PSF) commander and current Federal Police Commissioner Asad Osman Diano, a destabilization campaign was launched in Galkayo. Local authorities quickly suppressed the attempt, viewing it as part of President Hassan’s broader strategy to weaken the federal structure through manufactured internal conflict.

Meanwhile, escalating clan conflict in the Mudug region—specifically between the Sacad and Leelkase clans—is increasingly attributed to federal interference. Credible reports indicate that Sacad militias have received sophisticated weaponry and ammunition supplied by Egypt through the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). Fallen Sacad combatants were reportedly found carrying Egyptian-supplied arms, some of which are now preserved as evidence for possible future investigations.

The Puntland Security Force, initially established in 2000 to counter terrorism and largely funded by the United States, has over time evolved into what many now consider a rogue paramilitary entity. Tensions between PSF and the Puntland government escalated due to the force’s autonomy and opaque operations. In 2009, then-President Abdirahman Faroole ordered the dismantling of the Diano family’s grip over the PSF, citing its extrajudicial activities.

Today, the PSF is widely regarded as a family-run militia with undisclosed sources of funding and potential foreign affiliations. Accusations persist that the group trades unverified intelligence—often described as “sugar-coated and extraneous”—to unidentified foreign intelligence actors. It has even been alleged that the PSF maintains covert links with both ISIS and Al-Shabaab, further casting doubt on its legitimacy.

Public opposition to the PSF is mounting. Its failure to engage in Puntland’s ongoing counterterrorism efforts in the Al-Miskad Mountains, contrasted with its disruptive actions in Galkayo, has deepened calls for its disbandment.

Even more alarming is the situation in the Sanaag region. On December 8, 2024, Ahmed Elmi Osman (Karash) reportedly launched an uncoordinated military campaign in Erigavo—the regional capital—resulting in mass internal displacement and the closure of the sole commercial corridor linking Puntland and Somaliland. Observers argue the campaign served no strategic purpose other than to fulfill President Hassan’s goal of destabilizing Puntland’s eastern territories. In a related development, President Hassan has enlisted former Somali Minister of Planning Jamal Mohamed Hassan to promote the creation of a new federal member state  “Makhir” in Sanaag, as a deliberate attempt to sow division and unrest in Sanaag and the region.However, critics point out the proposal’s lack of political or economic logic, as the Warsangali clan—targeted by the initiative—resides across both Erigavo and Bosaso. The plan has gained no support, with the leadership and residents of Sanaag rejecting it as an artificial, externally imposed agenda devoid of local legitimacy.

Villa Somalia’s increasing interference has not only deepened mistrust between Puntland and the federal government but is now widely seen as a threat to national cohesion. Puntland authorities insist their commitment to federalism does not equate to tolerating unconstitutional maneuvers aimed at fracturing their territory through proxies or propaganda.

This growing crisis is not isolated. A parallel destabilization campaign is underway in the Gedo region of Jubaland. In December 2024, President Hassan airlifted 1,500 elite Somali National Army (SNA) troops to Raskamboni—not to combat Al-Shabaab, but to challenge Jubaland’s authority. The operation backfired. The troops were swiftly routed by the Jubaland Darwish Forces, with many surrendering either to Jubaland authorities or to Kenyan forces across the border.

Undeterred, President Hassan recently redeployed SNA brigades to Gedo, once again bypassing Al-Shabaab targets and focusing instead on destabilizing Jubaland. This time, the operation is under the command of General Fartag, the current Minister of Security and a native of the region—raising concerns about internal betrayal and political coercion. Observers say this repeated failure underscores the president’s strategic miscalculations and a pattern of seeking unconstitutional shortcuts through force.

Analysts believe these efforts are part of a deliberate, state-sponsored project to weaken any federal member state that adheres to the Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC) rather than submitting to the president’s political agenda.

At present, Puntland and Jubaland remain the only federal states with legitimate, constitutional mandates. Both have opposed Villa Somalia’s controversial unilateral amendments to the PFC, its drafting of an independent election law, creation of a partisan electoral commission, and formation of a political party dominated by federal executive and legislative leadership—all moves viewed as attempts to centralize power and erode the federal framework.

President Hassan’s actions regarding SSC-Khatumo further reinforce these concerns. Despite the fact that SSC-Khatumo’s jurisdiction is limited to four districts—Taleex, Xudun, Las Anod, and Buhodle—he declared it a full Federal Member State, rather Interim Administration. This move blatantly violates Article 49, Paragraphs 4 and 5 of the Provisional Federal Constitution, which state:

“The boundaries of Federal Member States shall be based on the boundaries of the administrative regions as they existed before 1991. Based on a voluntary decision, two or more regions may merge to form a Federal Member State.”

By sidestepping this legal process and unilaterally granting FMS status to a handful of districts, President Hassan is trampling with Constitution and accelerating the collapse of Somalia’s federal order.

And now, the same dictatorial tendencies are unfolding in the capital. Opposition figures—including former presidents, prime ministers, and speakers of parliament—have been banned from holding meetings in Mogadishu hotels. Meanwhile, Hassan’s Justice and Unity Party operates with impunity, holding meetings in hotels, government facilities, and using state resources as if they were personal property. Sources close to the presidency confirm that the president has put on standby special SNA brigades equipped to the teeth—drawn not from the wider Abgaal clan nor even the Wacaysle sub-clan, but specifically from his own sub-sub-clan,—with the sole mission of subduing the opposition in Mogadishu.

With political and military tensions at a boiling point, Somalia’s federal structure now stands at a critical crossroads. Puntland and Jubaland have both issued urgent calls for national and international attention, warning that Villa Somalia’s orchestrated campaign to dismantle the federal model threatens not only the stability of individual member states but the unity and future of the entire Somali Republic.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com