By Abdirahman Dahir Osman,
the Former Minister of Education of FGS

Recently, the push for Somaliland’s recognition has gained renewed attention within U.S. policy discussions on the Horn of Africa, prompting critical analysis of the timing, motives, and potential consequences. This resurgence appears influenced by complex regional dynamics, including shifting alliances, security concerns, and economic interests, raising questions about whether strategic geopolitical goals or internal political pressures are driving these efforts.

The tone and nature of recent initiatives suggest that external promoters may seek to leverage regional instability or opportunities for influence, which could disturb Somalia’s territorial integrity and regional stability. Careful study of these factors is crucial to ensure U.S. involvement supports peace, development, and stability rather than fueling tensions or undermining existing efforts toward regional cohesion.

Reckless proposals and political opportunism

A few weeks ago, a senior Somaliland official proposed hosting up to two million Palestinian refugees from Gaza in exchange for international recognition, which was shocking and deeply irresponsible, as it ignored Somali cultural values, regional political fragility, and the nation’s longstanding support for Palestine, making it politically reckless. Similarly, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz’s letter to President Trump, urging full recognition of Somaliland, reflects a simplistic understanding of the region’s complex history, clan dynamics, and geopolitical realities, influenced by external lobbying, particularly from pro-Israeli groups. Both proposals are misguided, potentially destabilizing and threaten Somalia’s sovereignty, risking increased tensions across the Horn of Africa and unrest along vital trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Recognition is not just a diplomatic act it is a social calculation

The debate over Somaliland’s recognition is often framed through the lenses of international law, regional security, and Western strategic interests. While these maybe valid considerations, they risk overshadowing the human dimension of the issue. For many in Somaliland, especially those from the dominant clan, commonly referred to as “beesha dhexe”, recognition is seen as a matter of justice—possibly a response to decades of marginalization and brutal repression under the Siad Barre regime. Ambassador Larry André, in his recent article, rightly acknowledges the atrocities committed against this community. That trauma continues to shape Somaliland’s political identity and its pursuit of autonomy. However, any conversation about recognition must also include the voices of other communities within Somaliland’s borders, including clans and minority groups whose experiences and aspirations may differ. Some advocate for autonomy within a federal Somalia, while others feel excluded by Hargeisa’s centralized governance. A compelling example is the late Dr. Ali Khalif, who represented a marginalized region in eastern Somaliland. He worked tirelessly to promote a just and inclusive Somaliland “Soomaaliland la wada leeyahay.

Dr. Khalif believed that only an inclusive and representative Somaliland could shape its future and engage in meaningful negotiations with Somalia, regardless of the outcome. His efforts, though courageous and visionary, were ultimately a missed opportunity. At the time, some leaders lacked the flexibility and foresight to fully embrace his message. Yet his legacy remains a reminder: a sustainable solution must welcome diverse perspectives, not suppress them. True progress demands listening, empathy, and the courage to build bridges across divides.

Federalism: A way forward, not a universal remedy

Ambassador André proposes a “variable geometry” model of federalism, drawing on examples from Canada, the UAE, and Tanzania. I agree that Somalia’s clan-based social fabric requires flexible governance structures. A rigid, top-down approach will not work; however, federalism alone cannot heal the deep mistrust between Hargeisa and Mogadishu. What is needed is a new social contract that acknowledges historical grievances within Somalia and Somaliland, affirms regional autonomy and establishes mechanisms for inclusive governance.

The Djibouti talks of 2020 offered a promising framework for dialogue, and these efforts must be revived and expanded to include joint economic initiatives, cultural exchanges, and reconciliation platforms. International partners, including the U.S., can play a supportive role, but the process must be Somali-led, rooted in local legitimacy and consensus.

Regional dynamics: A double-edged knife

The Horn of Africa is a region with fluid borders and overlapping identities. Clan affiliations transcend national boundaries, and external actors often pursue competing interests. Ethiopia’s engagement with Somaliland, Turkey’s presence in Mogadishu, and the UAE’s strategic investments all reflect this complexity. While regional consultation is essential, it must not override Somali agency. The African Union’s approach in Eritrea and South Sudan offers a useful example: recognition followed negotiated settlements, not unilateral declarations. Somaliland’s recognition is and should be by all Somali people, not foreigners; therefore, they must engage with Mogadishu and not bypass it.

Too often, the debate over Somaliland’s status is reduced to a binary choice: recognition or rejection. This simplistic and counterproductive framing fails to capture the complexities of the issue. As Ambassador André suggests, there are intermediate steps that can foster meaningful dialogue without prejudging the eventual outcome. More importantly, we must reject the notion that Somaliland’s future is a zero-sum game, where one side’s gain comes at the expense of the other. The ultimate goal should not be victory for one side but rather ensuring dignity and respect for all Somalis. Achieving this requires creating space for dissenting voices, protecting the rights of minorities, and building inclusive institutions that genuinely reflect the diverse fabric of Somali society.

Conclusion: A Somali-led, inclusive process               

Somaliland’s status is not merely a matter for diplomats, nor a decision to be made unilaterally by either Somalia or Somaliland; it is a question that concerns all Somalis. We must reclaim ownership of this conversation, rather than allow others to speak on our behalf. It is essential that Somalis are free to express their views on recognition without fear, censorship, or restriction.

Today, both Somaliland and Somalia are more fragmented than ever. This reality underscores the urgent need for unity, one that includes all Somalis, across regions and identities. It is not too late to change course. We must engage elders, youth, business leaders, and diaspora communities in shaping a shared future. That process demands courage: confronting uncomfortable truths, embracing complexity, and listening to diverse voices. I commend Ambassador André for his thoughtful engagement, and now, it is our responsibility to shape our own future with wisdom, unity, and hope.

Abdirahman Dahir Osman
Email: buulaay1@gmail.com
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Abdirahman is a former Minister of Education of the Federal Government of Somalia