The Guardian
The new president of Somaliland says his state, which broke away from Somalia in 1991, is on the brink of securing international recognition – a development that would inflame tensions in the already tumultuous Horn of Africa.
In an interview in the presidential palace in the capital, Hargeisa, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi tells the Guardian it is “likely” that Somaliland will finally win acceptance of its right to self-determination, which has eluded the territory since it declared independence from Somalia 34 years ago.
“Recognition is on the horizon,” says the 69-year-old.
Such a move would infuriate Somalia, which would view it as an attack on its sovereignty, unsettle regional powers in the strategic peninsula and fan broader concern that it sets a precedent for secessionist movements across the African continent.
Despite its relative stability and regular democratic elections, Somaliland, a territory of about five million people, has yet to be recognised as independent by a single nation.
“It’s a matter of time. Not if, but when and who will lead the recognition of Somaliland,” says Abdullahi.
That goal, say Somaliland sources, has never been closer amid signs that the US president, Donald Trump, could be the first leader to recognise the self-declared republic in return for building a military base near the port of Berbera, a strategic location on the Gulf of Aden.
Abdullahi revealed that US military officials, including the Horn of Africa’s most senior officer, have recently visited Hargeisa. Another Washington delegation is expected to “evaluate the asset [Berbera]”.
A key US military base, Camp Lemonnier, is located in neighbouring Djibouti but concern is growing over Chinese influence there as Beijing continues to strengthen its ties with Africa.
Project 2025, the alleged blueprint for the second Trump presidency, proposes the recognition of Somaliland as a “hedge against the US’s deteriorating position in Djibouti”.
In April, US aircraft carriers off the coast of Somaliland played a part in US bombing raids on Yemen, responding to Houthi rebels’ disruption of Red Sea shipping lanes.
The US has yet to announce any formal arrangement with Somaliland, but Abdullahi said they were embedded in attempts to safeguard global maritime trade.
“We are a partner in security. We are a partner in counter-terrorism. We are a partner in safe marine routes for world trade,” says Abdullahi, who was sworn in as president five months ago. In that time, he says, the US ambassador to Somalia has visited him three times.
The Trump administration is split over its approach to Somalia, which still considers Somaliland part of its territory.
Recent gains by al- Shabaab Islamist militants have raised questions in the Trump administration over the worth of US counter-terrorism operations in Somalia. The withdrawal of US personnel and the closure of the US embassy in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, has been mooted..
Sources indicate that elements of the Trump team want to drop the US’s longstanding “one Somalia” policy. Ditching support for Somalia’s weak central government would pave the way to officially recognise Somaliland.
“The US and maybe other international partners will [soon] have to recalculate their policies regarding Somalia,” says Abdullahi.
The former defence secretary, Gavin Williamson, a prominent advocate for recognition of the ex-British protectorate, believes a recalculation is very much under way.
Williamson, speaking to the Guardian earlier this month, said US officials had assured him that recognition for Somaliland would happen.
“I was talking to a few people this week and the thing I was getting from them is that it [recognition] is getting there. They’ve already started shifting away from the one Somalia policy.”
Williamson, like Abdullahi, believes recognition will happen by 2028 at the latest. He adds: “Before President Trump’s term ends, the US will have recognised Somaliland. My hope is that within a year we will have the first country within the United Nations to have recognised Somaliland.”
Bashe Omar, former representative of Somaliland to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), says US officials he met recently in Abu Dhabi were “frustrated” at the one-Somalia policy.
“What we are hearing, behind the scenes, is encouraging us. The US is moving in the right direction.”
Source: The guardian.
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