By Abdiqani Haji Abdi

A Nation on the Brink—Is There Hope?

Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership, Somalia is not just struggling with governance—it is unraveling. The country is adrift, with a president more focused on consolidating power than addressing its most pressing issues. Land grabs, rampant corruption, constitutional overreach, fractured federalism, an emboldened Al-Shabaab, a crumbling military, and a rigged electoral process have pushed Somalia to the brink of collapse.

Yet, amid the turmoil, a glimmer of hope emerges. The recent appointment of James Swan as the Special Representative of the United Nations and Head of the United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) has stirred cautious optimism. A seasoned diplomat with extensive experience in Somalia, Swan is well-versed in the nation’s power struggles. Having served as the U.S. Special Representative for Somalia (2011-2013) and later as the Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) from 2019 to 2022, he understands the country’s fragile political dynamics and its key actors—including President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud himself, whom he knew while he was still in the opposition.

Many Somalis believe that Swan has the diplomatic expertise and the backing of influential global powers—such as the U.S. and the UK—to rein in Hassan Sheikh and curb his authoritarian tendencies. His appointment signals renewed international oversight, potentially pressuring the Somali president to restore the balance of power and engage in meaningful political dialogue. The critical question now is whether James Swan, with the support of Western allies, can prevent Somalia from descending further into chaos. Somalis are watching—and waiting—for a lifeline that is beginning to take shape.

The Unexpected Eid al-Fitr Gift

As I was in the midst of drafting this article, I stumbled upon news that caught me off guard. It was about a speech delivered last night by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud—one in which he finally, and without ambiguity, uttered the words people had been waiting to hear.

“I am offering a platform to politicians and community leaders so that their suggestions can contribute to the fight against terrorism and help build a modern government based on democracy and a federal system, working in accordance with our constitution and laws.”

For the first time, he acknowledged the role of the opposition—something he had long avoided. “I thank the political leaders for their understanding that while we may not always agree, we stand united in our mission to build a democratic state. I am extending a platform for politicians so their voices can contribute to this shared struggle.”

While this statement marks a positive step forward, one question remains: when he refers to “the constitution,” is he speaking about the agreed-upon Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC), or is he is referring to the unilateral version he drafted? Clarity on this remains to be seen but sure it was the British and American pressure that made him say what he was avoiding four years and to that end I am confident that the constitution he is referring is PFCS .

He concluded by commending the Somali National Army for its relentless fight against Al-Shabaab, a gesture that resonated deeply with those on the front lines of the country’s battle for stability.

President Hassan’s Legacy of Unilateralism

Since his re-election, opposition leaders, Federal Member State (FMS) presidents, civil society groups, and traditional elders have repeatedly called for unity and inclusive dialogue to tackle Somalia’s deepening crisis. They urged President Hassan to engage in broad consultations before making major decisions. His response? A blunt and unwavering:

“I won’t stop for no one.”

That defiant stance has defined his presidency—one marked by unilateral decisions that have only exacerbated tensions. President Hassan’s disregard for consensus-driven governance is now steering the country toward a political and security abyss.

Two of Somalia’s most influential international partners, British Ambassador Michael Nithavrianakis and U.S. Ambassador Richard Riley, met with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on March 28 in Mogadishu. The discussions centered on the urgent need for an inclusive and consensus-driven governance approach to defuse escalating political tensions and bolster Somalia’s counterterrorism efforts.

The diplomats emphasized the importance of a transparent and fair electoral process, warning that unilateral decisions could further fragment the country. They urged the federal government to engage in immediate and meaningful dialogue with Puntland and Jubaland, the two Federal Member States that have distanced themselves from Mogadishu over disputes related to governance and resource-sharing.

A Leader Who Betrayed His Own Principles

Since returning to office, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has not only abandoned his past opposition stances but has intensified the very practices he once condemned. His administration is marked by executive overreach, election manipulation, and political interference—pushing Somalia closer to authoritarian rule.

Viewing Somalia’s challenges as external problems, Hassan Sheikh has sidelined Somali voices and dismissed calls for domestic political reconciliation. Despite Puntland’s president twice extending an olive branch to initiate dialogue, Hassan Sheikh flatly refused to engage.

A key example of his politicized governance is the manipulation of donor-funded development aid. Instead of ensuring equitable distribution, he has used it as a tool to punish Federal Member States (FMS) that do not align with his administration. Puntland, for instance, has seen its development projects frozen for four years, depriving citizens of critical infrastructure and services. Yet, despite this blockade, Puntland successfully expelled ISIS from the mountains of the Bari region between January and March 2025—without any support from the federal government.

Meanwhile, Hassan Sheikh’s military strategy has been disastrous. Instead of reinforcing the Somali National Army (SNA), he hastily launched an unplanned campaign against Al-Shabaab in Hirshabelle and Galmudug in June 2022. Poor planning and a lack of coordination resulted in mass desertions, leaving the army fragmented and demoralized. As a result, Al-Shabaab is regaining territory at an alarming rate, undoing years of counterterrorism efforts and further destabilizing the country.

Compounding the crisis, he has systematically weakened state institutions by purging experienced government officials and replacing them with individuals appointed primarily for clan loyalty—many of whom have no prior experience in governance.

Double Standards: The Case of Jubaland

The contradiction in President Hassan Sheikh’s approach is most evident in his dealings with Jubaland. In 2019, while in opposition, he personally attended and endorsed the election of Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe, stressing the importance of upholding the law. However, when Madobe conducted another election as president, Hassan Sheikh declared it illegitimate. To make matters worse, he launched military attacks using the Somali National Army (SNA) in an attempt to forcefully intervene.

This offensive against Jubaland quickly backfired. Within hours, Jubaland’s forces neutralized the assault, exposing the Somali government’s weakened military and highlighting the growing rift between Mogadishu and key federal states. His actions even extended to weaponizing civil aviation, which tragically led to the deaths of sick people and pregnant women in Jubaland—an unconscionable move that further deepened the crisis.

The Road Ahead

Somalia stands at a crossroads. If Hassan Sheikh continues his path of unilateralism, he risks further alienating the Federal Member States, weakening the military, and emboldening Al-Shabaab. But if international actors like James Swan, along with key Western allies, step in to apply pressure, there is still a chance to steer Somalia back toward stability.

The coming months will be crucial. Will the international community hold Hassan Sheikh accountable and push for an inclusive political process? Or will Somalia’s crisis deepen, paving the way for more instability?
For now, the nation remains in limbo—watching, waiting, and hoping that this time, someone with real influence will make a difference.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com