By Abdiqani Haji Abdi

As Somalia prepares to enter one of the most critical political summits in its modern history, the country’s democratic foundations appear to be under siege. In a shocking turn of events over the past three years, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has led a sweeping campaign that has dismantled key state institutions, neutralized independent oversight, and concentrated power into the hands of the President.

What remains is a shell of the democratic state envisioned by Somalia’s 2012 Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC), now replaced by a system widely described as autocratic and illegitimate.

Systematic Dismantling of Independent Institutions

When President Hassan returned to power in May 2022, he pledged reform, national unity, and stabilization. However, within weeks, his administration moved to abolishcritical independent commissions, including:

• The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
• The Boundaries and Federation Commission
• The Anti-Corruption Commission
• The Judicial Service Commission

These were not arbitrary bodies. They were constitutional entities, carefully structured and internationally supported, and their mandates were crucial to Somalia’s federal system and the delivery of fair and credible elections. Staffed by technocrats and legal experts, these commissions were years in the making — receiving training, resources, and institutional support from the United Nations, African Union, and European Union.

“The dismantling of these commissions was a death blow to democratic checks and balances,” said a former commissioner who spoke to me under condition of anonymity. “This was not reform. It was erasure.”

Their removal left the president with unprecedented control over electoral processes, judicial appointments, and federal boundaries — areas designed to remain politically neutral.

A Constitution Authored in the Shadows

Having swept away the legal scaffolding that supported Somalia’s federal republic, President Hassan unilaterally drafted and announced a new constitution — without public debate, or engagement with federal member states.

The draft, now derisively dubbed the “Villa Somalia Constitution,” strips federal states of autonomy, grants sweeping powers to the presidency, and redefines Somalia’s political structure around centralized rule. Critics argue that it nullifies the PFC, the foundational document approved in 2012 with broad consensus.

“The president has effectively installed a monarchy disguised as a republic,” said one constitutional lawyer based in Garowe. “What we have now is a leader governing through decree, not consent.”

A Puppet Electoral Commission and the Erasure of Opposition

In a move that further ignited tensions, the president reconstituted the Independent National Electoral Commission with loyalists — individuals widely perceived as political appointees with no legal standing. This commission, announced as “neutral,” certified five pro-government political organizations and declared them the only parties eligible to participate in upcoming elections.

During a ceremony held in Mogadishu on April 08, 2025, Chairman Abdikariin Ahmed Hasan stated:

“Somali politics now belongs to five political parties and the current government’s Party. Registration for the people begins next week, and elections will follow shortly.”

The declaration sent shockwaves across the political spectrum, as dozens of established political movements, especially from the opposition, were excluded. The commission’s message was clear: participate under the president’s terms or be shut out.

“This is not voter registration. It’s voter suppression,” said an opposition leader from Jubaland. “This commission is not independent. It is an extension of Villa Somalia’s control.”

The Looting of Public Assets in Mogadishu

While constitutional and electoral manipulation has dominated headlines, another crisis brews beneath the surface: the sale of public lands and assets in Mogadishu to private, politically connected interests.

According to insiders within the Ministry of Public Works and the Auditor General’s office, valuable public properties — including government buildings, Hotels, hospitals, Military Barracks and strategic lands — have been sold off through backdoor deals, with proceeds never entering the national treasury.

“These were lands meant for schools, hospitals, and future generations. They are now in the hands of shady businessmen with ties to the regime,” said a whistleblower.

This urban looting has transformed the capital into a real estate free-for-all, erasing public space and further eroding trust in the federal government.

The Death of Somalia’s Elite National Army

Meanwhile, on the security front, President Hassan’s reckless militarization strategy has led to the collapse of Somalia’s most promising security achievement — the elite 20,000-strong Somali National Army trained under President Farmaajo’s administration.

Deployed in hasty offensives against Al-Shabaab on mid 2022 without adequate planning, logistics, or intelligence, these elite units have been decimated. Thousands of soldiers are dead, missing, or have deserted. Survivors, many of whom fought valiantly, now find themselves unemployed, unpaid, and psychologically shattered.

“The army was sacrificed in a political stunt,” said a retired military officer. “These were highly trained men, turned into cannon fodder.”

The National Conference: A Last Stand for the Republic

All eyes now turn to the National Consultative Conference, scheduled to begin this week. Federal Member States, opposition parties, civil society groups, and traditional elders are expected to attend — though Villa Somalia is reportedly attempting to control the agenda.

Sources close to the organizing committee confirm that the first item on the agenda is the complete rejection of President Hassan’s draft constitution and the reinstatement of the 2012 Provisional Federal Constitution. The second major proposal is the formal dissolution of the so-called Independent National Electoral Commission and the creation of a legitimate electoral body through national consensus.

“This meeting is Somalia’s last chance to prevent a full descent into authoritarianism,” said a senior advisor to Puntland’s government. “If this fails, the country will fracture beyond repair.”

Democracy on the Brink

Somalia’s democratic journey has never been easy, but what the nation faces today is unprecedented. A president who rose to power promising unity has instead orchestrated the demolition of the very institutions that make a republic possible. The state’s moral, legal, and political compass is lost — but hope lies in the gathering of leaders determined to restore it.

The consultative meeting may mark the beginning of Somalia’s return to a constitutional order — or it may confirm that one man’s ambition has driven the country to the edge.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com