Somalia Should Not Be Dragged into the Nile Proxy War

Somalia Should Not Be Dragged into the Nile Proxy War

By Abdiqani Haji Abdi

In the glittering coastal city of New Alamein this week, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud smiled for the cameras alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi. The two men shook hands beneath the marble arches of the Al-Alamein Palace, exchanged platitudes, and promised—once again—to “strengthen bilateral ties.”

We’ve seen this performance before. There’s a summit, a protocol gets dusted off and “reactivated,” and leaders walk away declaring their mutual commitment to peace, development, and regional stability. But behind the choreography lies a different story—one where Somalia is not a partner, but a pawn in Egypt’s high-stakes geopolitical game with Ethiopia over the Nile.

Let’s be clear: this meeting was not about Somalia’s interests. It was about leverage. It was about Egypt’s desperate search for pressure points against Addis Ababa, and Somalia, as fractured and fragile as it is, has once again been cast in a role it neither deserves nor benefits from.

A Familiar Script with a Hollow Core

President Al-Sisi spoke of activating military cooperation agreements signed last year. President Hassan praised Egypt’s support in education and healthcare. There were kind words, formal gestures, and the inevitable invitation for Al-Sisi to visit Mogadishu.

But for those of us who have seen Somalia’s landscape of crumbled institutions, displaced families, and hollowed-out infrastructure, the question is simple: what does Somalia actually gain from this relationship?

Not much.

Cairo’s military “support” hasn’t stopped Al-Shabaab’s resurgence. Egyptian “aid” has yet to rehabilitate a single major hospital in Beledweyne, Kismayo, or Garowe. These partnerships are heavy on symbolism and paper agreements—but desperately light on tangible results.

And now, with Ethiopia pushing ahead with its Grand Renaissance Dam, Egypt sees an opportunity in Somalia’s vulnerability. It doesn’t want to help Somalia. It wants to use Somalia—as a pressure point, as leverage, as a bargaining chip.

Caught Between Two Powers

Somalia has always been vulnerable to regional rivalries, but never more so than now. Ethiopia sees the Somali coast as strategic and vital to its economy. Egypt sees the same coast as a place to plant a flag and remind Ethiopia it has friends nearby.

What Somalia needs is principled neutrality. What it’s being pulled into is a tug-of-war between two powers whose conflict over water and influence has nothing to do with Somalia’s future.

In his remarks, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud barely acknowledged this dynamic. Either he doesn’t see it—or worse, he does and has chosen to look away.

But ordinary Somalis can see it. And they are growing tired of leaders who travel abroad, sign meaningless MOUs, and return home with nothing but photo albums and talking points.

Meanwhile, in Gaza…

The hypocrisy surrounding Egypt’s “brotherhood” narrative is even more jarring when viewed through the lens of its own backyard: Gaza.

Egypt, the so-called champion of Arab solidarity, controls the Rafah border crossing, Gaza’s only lifeline to the outside world not controlled by Israel. And yet, as bombs rain down on Palestinian families, as children starve and hospitals collapse, Egypt has kept that border effectively sealed.

If Al-Sisi has even a flicker of conscience, he would swing those gates open. He would allow the injured to escape, the sick to find treatment, the aid convoys to flood in. But he doesn’t.

Instead, he hosts summits with fragile African states and speaks of “solidarity” while serving as a gatekeeper to suffering.

So we must ask: If Egypt won’t help its neighbors in Gaza—its literal next-door brothers—why should we believe it’s acting out of goodwill toward Somalia?

The answer is: we shouldn’t.

Somalia’s Leadership Must Wake Up

President Hassan Sheikh’s warm words in New Alamein may earn him applause from some corners, but they will do nothing for the displaced families in Doolow, the unemployed youth in Baidoa, or the underpaid teachers in Bosaso.

What Somalia needs is a leadership that sees beyond the red carpet and reads the geopolitical map for what it is.

What Somalia needs is:

  • An independent foreign policy grounded in its national interest.
  • Investments in internal governance, not external applause.
  • And above all, leaders who will say “no” when regional giants come knocking with self-serving deals.

Not a Partner, Not Even a Player

In the grand scheme of things, this summit between Egypt and Somalia was not a partnership—it was a performance. The real audience was not the Somali people, but the Ethiopian government. The message? “We have Somalia on our side.”

But Somalia was not a player in that game. It was a prop—used to send a signal in a conflict it didn’t ask for and cannot afford to join.

If this is what diplomacy looks like, Somalia should stay home.

And to President Al-Sisi: if you truly care about your neighbors, start with Gaza. Open Rafah. Let the aid flow. Let the wounded breathe. Let the dead be buried with dignity.

Only then will talk of “brotherhood” ring true.

Until then, these summits remain what they are: distractions.
For Somalia, they are a waste of time.
For Gaza, they are a betrayal. And for Africa, they are a reminder that sovereignty without vision is just a flag in the wind.

Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: Hajiabdi0128@gmail.com